U.S. soybean stocks will be smaller than previously forecast as export demand for U.S. offerings remains strong even with recently harvested supplies from Brazil and Argentina available for overseas buyers, the government said Friday.
But corn supplies were estimated to be bigger than earlier forecasts, bucking market expectations for tighter stocks, as rising prices chilled export activity.
The government also raised its forecast for wheat stocks as the harvest outlook improved.
Tight supplies of crops and backlogs of shipments around the world have contributed to soaring food inflation in recent months. Soybean futures Sv1 came within a nickel of their all-time high on Thursday.
But analysts said the latest forecasts from the government did not provide any fresh bullish news that would drive prices higher, and all eyes were focused on U.S. crop development in the hopes that a bountiful harvest this fall would provide some relief to the stressed global balance sheet.
"Between corn and beans, weather is still going to drive the train," said Mike Zuzolo, president of Global Commodity Analytics.
Chicago Board of Trade corn and wheat futures turned positive after the data was released, while soybean futures bounced off their session lows but remained in negative territory.
The U.S. Agriculture Department lowered its outlook for 2021/22 ending stocks of soybeans to 205 million bushels from 235 million. For the 2022/23 marketing year, the soybean stocks estimate was cut to 280 million from 310 million.
Analysts were expecting the USDA's World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report to show soy ending stocks of 218 million for 2021/22 and 307 million for 2022/23.
Corn ending stocks were pegged at 1.485 billion bushels for 2021/22 and 1.400 billion for 2022/23, with the export outlook for the 2021/22 marketing year cut by 50 million bushels to 2.450 billion bushels.
USDA projected 2022/23 ending stocks of wheat at 627 million bushels, up 6 million from a month earlier.
