Coolest Air of the Season Arrives Late Week
Here are the coolest high temps of fall so far at MSP. The coolest day was 57F on September 23rd with a number of other days seeing highs only warming into the 60s. However, temps later this week will only warm into the 40s and 50s, which will likely be the coolest daytime highs of the season so far.
Sharp Cold Front Arrives Midweek
Here's the 850mb temp anomaly from AM Tuesday to AM Saturday. Note the oranges and reds in place through midweek, which suggests above average temps through that time frame. However, there is a sharp cold front that will blast through late Wednesday with temps tumbling into the 40s and 50s on Thursday and Friday across the state with widespread frost/freeze concerns. This will be some of the coldest air of the season
Much Colder Late Week
Here's a look at the extended temperature outlook for Minneapolis. Note that highs will warm into the 70s through Wednesday before the bottom falls out late week. High on Thursday and Friday will only warm into the 40s and 50s across the state, which will be well below average for early October and likely some of the coolest air of the season so far.
Widespread Frost/Freeze Friday Morning
Weather models are still pretty gung-ho on some cold air at the end of the week with widespread frost/freeze potential on Friday morning. At this point, temps could dip into the 20s and 30s across much of the state. Stay tuned...
Cold Friday Highs
Daytime Highs on Friday will be some of the coolest air of the season. Note that highs will only warm into the 40s and 50s across the state, which will be nearly -15F below average.
Severe Drought Continues in the Metro
According to the US Drought Monitor (updated September 27th), severe drought continues in the Twin Cities. Areas of moderate to severe drought stretch from the Twin Cities to the MN River Valley, where precipitation amounts are running several inches below average since January 1st.
Mostly Dry Extended Forecast
Here's the precipitation outlook through the first full week of October, which shows very little rainfall across the region. The best chance of any accumulation will be across the northern and western part of the state, where up to 0.25" may be possible.
Little Rain Chance Into Early October
Here's the weather outlook through the first week of October, which shows isolated rain chances through midweek. These rain chances will be fairly light across the Midwest with up to 0.25" rain possible for some. There will be a more potent front arriving late Wednesday with more widespread showers across the Great Lakes Region and it could be cold enough for snow closer to the international border and the northern Great Lakes!
Fall Color Update
Thanks to dwindling daylight and chilly overnight lows, the fall color progress is really starting to come around. It won't be long now and those fall colors will be quite prevalent across the state. There are even pockets of peak color across the northern part of the state.
Average Fall Color
The MN DNR has put together a nice graphic that shows typical dates for peak fall color. The northern par of the state starts to peak during the 2nd half of September into early October. Meanwhile, folks in the central part of the state and into the metro typically don't see peak color until the end of September into the middle part of October. It won't be long now - enjoy!
Average First Frost For MSP
Here's the 30 year average for the first frost in Minneapolis, which lands on October 13th. Last year (2021) the first frost was on October 23rd. If you look at the full MSP record, which dates back to 1873, the latest frost was November 18th back in 2016, while the earliest frost was September 3rd back in 1974.
First Measurable Snow at MSP
Here's the average first measurable snowfall (0.01") at MSP over the last 30 years, which lands on November 6th. Last year, MSP had its first measurable snow on November 13th. The last was on December 3rd back in 1928, while the earliest was September 24th in 1985.
Weather Outlook on Tuesday
Temperature on Tuesday will still be nearly +5F to +10F above average for the fourth day of October. There could be a few isolated showers here and there, mainly across the western part of the state.
Weather Outlook Tuesday
The weather outlook for Minneapolis on Tuesday shows a mix of clouds and sun with temperatures warming into the mid 70s, which will be above average for early October. There could be a few isolated showers across the northern and western part of the state, but again, most will stay dry. Our best chance of rain comes overnight Tuesday into Wednesday.
Meteograms for Minneapolis
The hourly forecast for Minneapolis on Tuesday shows temps starting around 60F in the morning and warming into the mid 70s by the afternoon. Skies will generally be dry with a mix of clouds and sun. Southerly winds will be breezy around 10mph-20mph.
Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis
The extended temperature outlook for Minneapolis over the next several days shows temps warming into the 70s through midweek, which will be nearly +5F to +10F above average for early October. However, there is a bigger cooldown lurking for late week with highs running well below average, especially Thursday & Friday.
Extended Weather Outlook For Minneapolis
The extended weather outlook over the next 7 days shows milder weather in place through the first half of the week. A sharp cool front blows through midweek, which will drop temps to below average temps once again later in the week. In fact, daytime highs may only warm into the 50s with frosty overnight lows.
8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook
According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14 day temperature outlook shows above average temps continuing across much of the Western US with cooler than average readings in the eastern US.
8 to 14 Day Precipitation Outlook
According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14 Day precipitation outlook shows dry weather in place across much of the nation with the exception of the Southwest.
The Dog Days of October
By Paul Douglas
The old adage is true: we really don't deserve dogs. After 11 amazing years of enriching our lives, we lost our dog, Leo, Sunday. He loved everyone and everything. Except squirrels. He wasn't a pet - he was family. The only saving grace is that we were able to comfort him as he passed. Hug your dog tight for us and make everyday count.
The velocity of weather changes will pick up in October as the jet stream dips south. More frequent weather changes and a parade of increasingly chilly fronts are inevitable. So I will park myself on the deck and soak up mid 70s again today; nearly 10 degrees above average. Any October day in Minnesota where you can wander outside in shorts is bonus!
Wednesday showers make the leading edge of much cooler air by late week with 40-degreehighs by Friday, but weather should mellow a bit with a shot at 60F next week.
It's awfully dry and crunchy out there. If we don't get significant October rain, before the ground freezes, I worry about drought carrying over into 2023.
Extended Forecast
TUESDAY: Some sun, very mild. Winds: S 10-15. High: 75.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Winds: SSW 5. Low: 58.
WEDNESDAY: Welcome showers arrive. Winds: NW 8-13. High: 69.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy, windy and cool. Winds: N 15-30. Wake-up: 49. High: 56.
FRIDAY: Lingering clouds, feels like October. Winds: NW 8-13. Wake-up: 44. High: 49.
SATURDAY: Partly sunny, a bit more mellow. Winds: SW 8-13. Wake-up: 36. High: 55.
SUNDAY: Milder, PM shower possible. Winds: NW 10-20. Wake-up: 45. High: 62.
MONDAY: More clouds than sun, cooler. Winds: NW 8-13. Wake-up: 48. High: 56.
This Day in Weather History
October 4th
2005: Widespread heavy rain falls in Minnesota. 4.61 inches of rain falls in the Minneapolis area, 3.42 inches is recorded in St. Cloud, 2.28 inches in Redwood Falls, 2.98 inches in New London, and 3.23 inches in Buffalo.
1939: A storm dumps 2.16 inches of rain at Fairmont.
1922: A record high of 89 is set in Minneapolis.
Average High/Low for Minneapolis
October 4th
Average High: 65F (Record: 89F set in 1922)
Average Low: 46F (Record: 24F set in 1935)
Record Rainfall: 4.61" set in 2005
Record Snowfall: Trace set in 1935
Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis
October 4th
Sunrise: 7:14am
Sunset: 6:48pm
Hours of Daylight: ~11 hours & 33 minutes
Daylight LOST since yesterday: ~ 3 minutes & 5 seconds
Daylight LOST since Winter Solstice (December 21st): ~ 4 hour & 7 minutes
Moon Phase for October 4th at Midnight
1.3 Days Since First Quarter Moon
National High Temps Tuesday
The weather outlook on Tuesday shows well below average temperatures lingering across the Eastern US in the wake of Hurricane Ian. It'll be pretty close to average for early October in the Central US, but quite mild in the Midwest. It will also be quite warm across the Northwest.
National Weather Outlook Tuesday
A few showers will linger across the Mid-Atlantic States, where the remnants of Ian will still be in place. Meanwhile, a stagnant area of precipitation will be found along the Front Range with high elevation snow possible. This precipitation will begin to move east into the Midwest late Tuesday into Wednesday.
National Weather Outlook
The weather outlook through Wednesday shows remnants of Ian fading across the Mid-Atlantic States with breezy, cool and showery weather. Lingering precipitation will be found across the Front Range and Intermountain-West, but will shift east into the Midwest by midweek.
Extended Precipitation Outlook
According to NOAA's Weather Prediction Center, areas of heavy rain from the remnants of Ian will begin to fade in the Mid-Atlantic States. There will also be wetter weather through the Intermountain-West and certainly through the Southwest.
Climate Stories
"Meet the People Who Want to Stop the Next Hurricane by Hacking the Ocean"
"When Hurricane Ian slammed into Florida on Wednesday, it raged through the state with a ferocity that surprised even weather experts. The Category 4 storm flooded cities, wiped out power for millions of people, and the death toll could rise into the hundreds. Since then, Ian has since been downgraded to a tropical storm before bouncing back to a Category 1 hurricane so the danger remains—and will remain for the next week. The last few days have been a sobering reminder of the power that hurricanes have, and what little we can do when they arrive. Moreover, Ian is yet another indication of the deadly forces we've come to reap from runaway climate change, and an example of the grim reality we're only beginning to grapple with as a society: It only gets worse from here."
See more from The Daily Beast HERE:
"How Waffle House Helps Us Respond To Hurricanes"
"On a warm, cloudy morning in the first week of October, in an anonymous office park just outside Atlanta, operations analyst Matt Stark opened a computer program, ran through some data and looked thoughtfully at the results. Out in the Atlantic Ocean, Hurricane Matthew was hurling winds of 115 miles an hour toward the coast of Florida. Hundreds of miles inland, in the headquarters of Waffle House Inc., Stark's software predicted that 477 of the chain's almost 1,900 restaurants might be affected by the onrushing storm. This meant two things. First, as the storm made landfall, some locations of Waffle House — which boasts that every restaurant stays open 24 hours a day, 365 days a year — would probably have to close because of power loss or concerns for workers' safety. And second, sometime after they did, someone would invoke the "Waffle House Index," the slightly flippant measure of how bad a storm can get."
See more from Five Thirty Eight HERE:
"How Hurricane Season Went from Quiet to a 'Powder Keg'"
"Hurricane activity in the Atlantic Ocean typically begins to ramp up in earnest around mid-August. But at that time this year, there wasn't a storm to be seen anywhere across that vast stretch of ocean. Those quiet weeks capped off a nearly two-month lull that had forecasters scratching their head after initial predictions of a busy season. "It was really, really dead. We had no storms in August, which was the first time since 1997," when a very strong El Niño cut off hurricane activity, says Phil Klotzbach, a hurricane researcher at Colorado State University, who issues a seasonal forecast. But by the end of September, it seemed like a switch was suddenly flipped. Four named storms formed within nine days, and two of them—Fiona and Ian—became destructive major hurricanes. The 2022 hurricane season's 180-degree turn provides an object lesson in the competing influences that can either keep a lid on storm formation in the Atlantic or turn the region into what Klotzbach calls a "powder keg."
See more from Scientific American HERE:
