Sunny And Warmer Friday - Aurora Potential Friday Night?

It'll be a cold start to your Friday here in the Twin Cities, with morning temperatures down around zero and feels like temperatures around -10F. We will warm, though, to the upper 20s in the afternoon under lots of sunshine.

While most of the state will start off sunny on Friday, a few clouds will start to sneak into northern Minnesota as we head into the afternoon hours - more on what those clouds could unfortunately prevent in a minute. Highs will be in the 20s and 30s.

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The aurora was out in action putting on a show Wednesday night as far south as portions of central Minnesota - and it's not the only night this week you may be able to see them!

Another coronal mass ejection off of the sun was spotted Wednesday, and at least a portion of it is heading toward the Earth. Current projections have the influences reaching Earth sometime late Friday afternoon, lingering into the overnight hours.

This is the "Kp" (expected global geomagnetic conditions) forecast for the next few days in UTC time (for example, 00-03UTC stands for 6 PM to 9 PM Central Time). This would indicate that geomagnetic storming is likely to begin sometime Friday afternoon, lasting into the overnight hours. The peak of the storm is likely to occur Friday evening.

Potential aurora forecast for Friday Night from the Geophysical Institute at the University of Alaska Fairbanks.

This is the cloud forecast for 6 PM Friday - right around sunset. I mentioned above that clouds will be working into northern Minnesota during the afternoon hours on Friday, and already you're likely to be clouded out of seeing the aurora from the confluence of the North Dakota/South Dakota/Minnesota borders to Duluth and northward.

As we step ahead toward 9 PM Friday, cloud cover will have worked farther south, clouding out the aurora potential from Granite Falls to the St. Cloud area (and potentially the far northwest metro) to Hinckley.

And as we head toward Midnight, the only areas likely to be completely cloud free are areas of far southern Minnesota, generally south of Mankato.

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Enjoy the sunshine on Friday, as the cloudier conditions that move in Friday Night stick around as we head into the weekend. Highs will climb into the mid-30s on both Saturday and Sunday. A few flurries or very light snow showers can't be ruled out later in the day Sunday, but it shouldn't accumulate much more than a few tenths at most.

Forecast Loop From 6 AM Sunday To 6 AM Tuesday.

A couple of light snow chances could occur across the region as we head late into the weekend and into early next week. The better chance of snow looks to be Monday with an area of low pressure moving through. Between the two days, snow totals will mainly be under an inch across the region.

Forecast Loop From Noon Wednesday To 6 AM Friday.

While this is a week out, models have been fairly consistent the past day or two in showing a larger system impacting the Upper Midwest in the Wednesday/Thursday timeframe. While not much can be deduced just yet as it is a week out, if the models are correct this would likely be a plowable snow across the region. The European model (shown above) keeps it as all snow across the region, meanwhile, the American model does mix in some other wintry precipitation (sleet/freezing rain) across far southern Minnesota. This system will be one to watch as we head into next week.

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Vehicles and ice houses are falling through the ice in parts of the metro area. Record rains across much of Minnesota - in mid February? The warmth is magnified to our south and east. Syracuse and Cleveland should be experiencing lake-effect snow and subzero wind chills right now. Wednesday it was a record 68F at Cleveland, 69F in Syracuse and 71 at Pittsburgh. Flowers and trees are blooming more than a month early across much of the south. What is going on?

Weather explanations are rarely black or white but rather some nebulous shade of gray. 1). Natural variability. Winter weather is routinely extreme. 2). Global warming. The warming signal is most pronounced during the winter months. 3). A fading La Nina cool phase in the Pacific. El Nino may kick in later this year.

Blue sky and a stiff south breeze lures the mercury close to 30F today with highs near 40 Saturday. Colder weather returns next week with plowable possibilities by Wednesday night. Details TBA. But no prolonged polar pain is in sight.

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Paul's Extended Twin Cities Forecast

SATURDAY: Partly sunny, thawing out. Wake up 23. High 39. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind SW 5-10 mph.

SUNDAY: More clouds, nighttime flakes. Wake up 24. High 35. Chance of precipitation 40%. Wind NW 10-20 mph.

MONDAY: Colder. Coating of light snow? Wake up 28. High 27. Chance of precipitation 50%. Wind SE 5-10 mph.

TUESDAY: Cloudy and raw. Wake up 18. High 21. Chance of precipitation 20%. Wind N 15-25 mph.

WEDNESDAY: Snow arrives PM hours. Wake up 2. High 13. Chance of precipitation 70%. Wind E 10-15 mph.

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Minneapolis Weather Almanac And Sun Data
February 17th

*Length Of Day: 10 hours, 32 minutes, and 41 seconds
*Daylight GAINED Since Yesterday: 2 minutes and 57 seconds

*When do we see 11 Hours of Daylight?: February 27th (11 hours, 2 minutes, 59 seconds)
*When is Sunrise at/before 7:00 AM?: February 24th (6:59 AM)
*When is Sunset at/after 6:00 PM?: March 1st (6:00 PM)

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1981: Warm weather continues across Minnesota with a record high of 55 in the Twin Cities. Crocuses were blooming.

1894: The Minneapolis Weather Bureau journal notes: 'Sleighing is very poor, about half of the vehicles are on wheels'.

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The system that brought heavy snow to the upper Midwest and severe weather to the Deep South on Thursday will continue moving east into Friday, with storms in the Southeast to snow and ice in New England. Some rain and snow will be possible in the Pacific Northwest. Otherwise, most of the rest of the nation will be quiet. A few record highs could be possible in the Northeast and Florida ahead of the cold front moving in.

While the heavy snow in the upper Midwest will have fallen Thursday, several inches of snow can be expected into Friday across northern Maine. The heavy rain threat is similar - while 3"+ could fall in the Ohio Valley south to the Deep South, a lot of that will have fallen on Thursday.

Despite national goals, agricultural greenhouse gases grow unchecked in many Midwest states

More from The Gazette: "Digesters are one solution to the big challenge of reducing greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture, which makes up more than 10 percent of the total greenhouse gas emissions in the United States as of 2020, the most recent year available. Agriculture is a major source of planet-warming greenhouse gases, and farming-intensive states like Iowa — with 13 million acres of corn and seven hogs per person — are outsized contributors, federal data show. Iowa ranks No. 2, behind Texas, for greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture. While nationwide emissions from sectors like energy production have fallen in recent decades, those from agriculture — especially livestock and corn — have grown."

'Extreme situation': Antarctic sea ice hits record low

More from The Guardian: "The area of sea ice around Antarctica has hit a record low, with scientists reporting "never having seen such an extreme situation before". The ice extent is expected to shrink even further before this year's summer melting season ends. The impact of the climate crisis in melting sea ice in the Arctic is clear in the records that stretch back to 1979. Antarctic sea ice varies much more from year to year, which has made it harder to see an effect from global heating. However, "remarkable" losses of Antarctic sea ice in the last six years indicate that the record levels of heat now in the ocean and related changes in weather patterns may mean that the climate crisis is finally manifesting in the observations."

FEMA's failure to account for climate change leaves BIPOC communities on the brink of disaster

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- D.J. Kayser