Stunning Weekend Weather With 40s For Highs

Impressive Stretch Of Deep Snow Pack At MSP

It's been a long stretch with at least half a foot of snow on the ground here in the Twin Cities. As of Friday morning, we're at 53 consecutive days - the 25th longest stretch on record. The most recent stretch of 50+ days was back in the winter of 2013/14. Our current stretch goes back to December 20th.

_______________________________________________

Gorgeous & Warm Saturday

Get out and enjoy the beautiful weather as we head into Saturday! Mainly sunny skies are expected throughout the day. Morning temperatures will start off in the mid-20s with highs climbing to the low 40s.

Mostly sunny skies are expected for most of Saturday across the state, but clouds will start to increase into the mid/late afternoon hours in northern Minnesota. Highs will be in the 30s and 40s - up to 20F degrees above average.

_______________________________________________

Warmth Continues Into Early Next Week

Saturday won't be the only pleasant day of the next several. While there will be more clouds than sun on Sunday, we should once again reach the low 40s for highs. I wouldn't be surprised to see some morning fog on Sunday either. Fog won't likely be as much of an issue Monday morning as winds increase - and with sunny skies highs look to climb into the mid-40s.

_______________________________________________

Watching A System Mid-Next Week, Including Possibly For Valentine's Day

The weather has changed a little for Valentine's Day Tuesday vs. what we had yesterday. It now looks like the system that we had been tracking for Tuesday Night and Wednesday will move in a touch faster, meaning mainly cloudy skies are expected during the day with rain possibly moving in closer to the dinner hour. Highs should be in the mid-40s next Tuesday.

Forecast loop from Noon Tuesday to 6 AM Thursday.

Here's a look at that storm moving in as we head into the middle of the week. Right now it looks like we could remain warm enough in the metro for most of the precipitation to remain rain (with maybe a mix or a turnover to snow late Wednesday into Wednesday Night), with more snow out in western and southern Minnesota where at least a few inches could be possible. We'll keep an eye on another system for the central United States right on the heels of this one for Thursday and Friday, but models currently keep most of the precipitation to our south (with heavier snow possible for areas like Milwaukee or Chicago).

Behind that system mid-next week, we are going to see a stronger cooldown across the region, with highs dropping back into the 20s for Thursday and Friday and morning lows Friday morning in the single digits. Highs do look to climb back to around freezing for the Presidents' Day weekend.

_______________________________________________

Extended Outlook Calls For Potholes
By Paul Douglas

Mea culpa: the only thing I can predict with reliable 100% accuracy is sunrise and sunset – and a proliferation of pesky potholes in the weeks to come. This is peak pothole-formation season with the freeze-thaw cycle in full swing; temperatures gyrating either side of 32F. The relative warmth feels great, but it's problematic for highway surfaces.

Water is the only non-metallic substance that expands when it freezes. During the day temperatures turn to snow and ice to liquid water, which seeps into cracks in our highways. These tiny veins of water freeze and expand at night when temperatures sink below freezing, slowly pulverizing pavements over time, resulting in potholes and moon-worthy craters.

Would someone invent a long term alternative to asphalt and concrete? Maybe rubber or sustainable biofuels? Just saying.

Daytime highs flirt with 40F into early next week. Rain next Tuesday may end as a slushy coating but big storms stay south of Minnesota next week. We're due for polar air. Don't see it yet.

_______________________________________________

Paul's Extended Twin Cities Forecast

SATURDAY: Sunny and breezy. Wake up 25. High 42. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind SW 10-20 mph.

SUNDAY: Intervals of sun, less wind. Wake up 25. High 41. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind W 5-10 mph.

MONDAY: February thaw continues. Mild sun. Wake up 25. High 43. Chance of precipitation 0%. Wind SW 7-12 mph.

TUESDAY: Light rain arrives late. Wake up 31. High 42. Chance of precipitation 70%. Wind SE 8-13 mph.

WEDNESDAY: Rain-snow mix. Slushy western MN. Wake up 32. High 37. Chance of precipitation 80%. Wind NW 10-20 mph.

THURSDAY: Windy, turning colder. Wake up 13. High 18. Chance of precipitation 20%. Wind NW 15-30 mph.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny, feels like February. Wake up 3. High 20. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind S 7-12 mph.

_______________________________________________

Minneapolis Weather Almanac And Sun Data
February 11th

*Length Of Day: 10 hours, 15 minutes, and 12 seconds
*Daylight GAINED Since Yesterday: 2 minutes and 50 seconds

*When do we see 11 Hours of Daylight?: February 27th (11 hours, 2 minutes, 59 seconds)
*When is Sunrise at/before 7:00 AM?: February 24th (6:59 AM)
*When is Sunset at/after 6:00 PM?: March 1st (6:00 PM)

_______________________________________________

This Day in Weather History
February 11th

1932: Mizpah picks up 13 inches of snow in a storm.

_______________________________________________

National Weather Forecast

An upper-level low will bring showers, storms, and even some snow and ice to parts of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic on Saturday. Another system in the western U.S. will bring some rain and snow chances to mainly California. Otherwise, it's quiet elsewhere across the lower 48.

The potential for heavy rain across the Southeast continues into the weekend, with at least 3-5" possible. Several inches of snow will be possible in the southern Appalachians, in the western mountains, downwind of the Great Lakes, and in New England.

_______________________________________________

Auckland just had its wettest month in over 170 years, and more rain is on the way

More from Yale Climate Connections: "New Zealand's largest city, Auckland — renowned for its typically tranquil climate — is now gasping its way through a flood-soaked southern summer that won't quit. Having endured its wettest month and wettest single day on record, Auckland is now looking warily to its northwest as Tropical Cyclone Gabrielle gathers steam. Gabrielle is likely to bring yet another punishing round of heavy rain to New Zealand's North Island early next week."

Past Records Help to Predict Different Effects of Future Climate Change on Land and Sea

More from Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution: "Ongoing climate change driven by greenhouse gas emissions is often discussed in terms of global average warming. For example, the landmark Paris Agreement seeks to limit global warming to 1.5 ⁰C, relative to pre-industrial levels. However, the extent of future warming will not be the same throughout the planet. One of the clearest regional differences in climate change is the faster warming over land than sea. This "terrestrial amplification" of future warming has real-world implications for understanding and dealing with climate change. A new paper studying terrestrial amplification focuses on how geochemical records of past climate on land and at the sea surface allow scientists to better predict the extent to which land will warm more than oceans—and will also get drier—due to current and future greenhouse gas emissions. "The core idea of our study was to look to the past to better predict how future warming will unfold differently over land and sea," says Alan Seltzer, an assistant scientist in the Marine Chemistry and Geochemistry Department at the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI) and the lead author of the paper."

The 'press and pulse' of climate change strains farmers in Pakistan

More from the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists: "The degree to which climate change will create economic upheaval or even lead to civil conflict around the globe is a question of increasing urgency for researchers and policy practitioners. According to data maintained by the International Disasters Database (EM-DAT), extreme hydrological and meteorological events like drought, extreme temperatures, floods, and storms have increased many times in frequency and severity in Pakistan in the last three decades—from 16 between 1926 and 1990, to 105 between 1991 and 2022. Pakistan's annual average temperature has increased by 1.68 degrees Celsius between 1901 and 2021, more than the global average temperature increase of 1.1 degrees Celsius."

_______________________________________________

Follow me on: