Snowiest Start on Record in Anchorage, AK
Believe it or not, Anchorage, AK has picked up nearly 70" of snow so far this season, which is the snowiest start to any season on record there (dating back to 1953). More snow fell on Monday and there is snow in the forecast every day through Christmas Day Monday.
Twin Cities December Summary So Far
Meanwhile, it has been a very warm and snowless December so far in the Twin Cities. Temperatures running nearly +9.5F above average through the first 16 days of the month, we're currently sitting at the 7th warmest start to any December on record. We're also -5.2" below normal snowfall for the month. We still have a little more than 2 weeks left of the month, but if we fail to see any additional snow this month, this would be the 8th least snowy December on record.
Soggy Christmas Eve
Long range models are hinting at a soggy Sunday (Christmas Eve) across the Upper Midwest. There is still a lot of time between now and then, so there could be some changes, including the potential for some snow on the backside of the system if we cool down enough. Again, lots could change, but we're getting indications of a more active signal around the holiday travel. Stay tuned...
Seasonal Snowfall So Far
The Twin Cities has only seen 4.5" of snow this season, which is nearly -10" below normal snowfall, which is the 26th least snowy start to any season on record. With only 6.3" of snow in Duluth, they are nearly -20" below normal snowfall and good enough for the 6th least snowy start to any season on record. Marquette, MI is more than -40" below normal snowfall and currently sitting at the 4th least snowy start to any season on record.
Seasonal Snowfall Departure From Average
Looking around the region, there is no climate site that has a surplus. The biggest deficits around the Great Lakes, where we typically get lake effect snow and with a lack of Arctic air, we haven't seen much in the way of lake effect snow yet this season.
Twin Cities Average Snowfall
Depending on what 30-year average you look at, December is typically the 1st or 2nd snowiest month out of the year in the Twin Cities. If you look at the last 30 years 1993-2022, December averages 12.7" of snow and is the snowiest month of the year, followed by January with nearly 11" of snow.
Twin Cities Weather Outlook For Tuesday
The weather outlook for the Twin Cities on Tuesday, December 19th will be dry and quiet with temperatures warming into the upper 30s by the afternoon, which will be nearly +10F above average for this time of the year. Skies will be dry and mostly sunny once again with southwesterly winds around 15mph to 25mph through the day.
Meteograms For Minneapolis
Temperatures in the Twin Cities will start in the low to mid 20s in the morning and will warm into the upper 30s by the afternoon with dry and sunny skies. Southwesterly winds will be around 15mph to 25mph, which may make it feel more like the freezing mark or below through the day.
Weather Outlook For Tuesday
The weather outlook for Tuesday will warm into the 30s across much of the state with some low/mid 40s across the Southwestern part of the state. Temps around the state will be nearly +10F to +15F above average for mid December.
Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis
The 5 day temperature outlook for Minneapolis will be quite a bit warmer than average over the next several days and into the weekend. Highs will warm into the 30s and 40s, which be nearly +10F to +20F above average with the warmest day being Saturday when temps we get close to 50F once again.
Extended Weather Outlook For Minneapolis
The extended weather outlook for Minneapolis over the next 7 days will be pretty warm with a string of 40s developing this week will lingering into the weekend ahead. Note that the forecast for Christmas Eve is around 50F, which could be a record high for the date. The current record is 46F set in 1957. There could be a few sprinkles late Thursday into Friday, but a bigger storm system looks to develop on Christmas Eve Sunday into Christmas Day Monday.
The Extended Outlook Calls For Warmer Temps
According to NOAA's National Blend of Models, the extended forecast looks very warm through the end of the month with highs will warming into the 30s and 40s. The warmest days could come around the Christmas holiday with record highs possible along with RAIN!
8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook
According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14 day temperature outlook shows warmer than average temperatures continuing across much of the nation and especially in the Midwest.
8 to 14 Day Precipitation Outlook
The 8 to 14 Day Precipitation Outlook shows more active weather across the East and West Coast with drier across the Central US.
Soaking Rain For Christmas This Year?
By Paul Douglas
Half a winter this year? That may be a stretch, but "winter shrinkage" is real, thanks in large part to what may be the most significant El Nino since 1998. More Pacific than Arctic air. We rely on arctic cold fronts to keep temperatures cold enough for snow, and also to spin up the big storms that pull moisture northward from the Gulf of Mexico. With an El Nino the jet stream is locked into a pattern that consistently steers storms south of Minnesota. Will we see a few snowstorms after New Year's? Count on it. A few subzero nights? Probably. But I don't expect the volume of bitter air we often receive during a typical winter. Fewer stinging windchill days.
It was surreal watching a nor'easter grind up the east coast with no snow. All rain (and coastal flooding). We may see significant rain here on Christmas Day, possibly ending as a little slush one week from today. Getting home after Christmas may be a bit sloppy. Stay tuned for more details. Near 50F this weekend? Looks like it. It is winter, right?
Extended Forecast
TUESDAY: Sunny and breezy. Winds: S 10-20. High 39.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy and quiet. Winds: S 5-10. Low: 28.
WEDNESDAY: Plenty of sun, relatively mild. Winds: NE 7-12. High 40.
THURSDAY: Clouds increase, probably dry. Winds: SE 10-15. Wake-up: 30. High 42.
FRIDAY: A little light rain and drizzle. Winds: SE 7-12. Wake-up: 33. High 43.
SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy and mild. Winds: SE 7-12. Wake-up: 34. High 48.
CHRISTMAS EVE (SUNDAY: Light rain for Christmas Eve. Winds: SE 10-15. Wake-up: 39. High 47.
CHRISTMAS DAY (MONDAY): Heavier rain possible. Nighttime slush. Winds: SE 10-25. Wake-up: 41. High: 45.
This Day in Weather History
December 19th
1983: Record lows are set across central Minnesota with temperatures ranging from fifty degrees below zero to the upper twenties below zero. Mora set their record with a low of 52 below, with 42 below at Little Falls, 41 below at Jordan, St. Cloud, and Cambridge, and 39 below at Long Prairie, Milaca, and Stillwater.
1923: Unseasonably mild temperatures occur in Minnesota. Temperatures climb into the 60s at New Ulm.
Average High/Low for Minneapolis
December 19th
Average High: 28F (Record: 52F set in 1923)
Average Low: 14F (Record: -29F set in 1983)
Record Rainfall: 0.51" set in 1968
Record Snowfall: 6.4" set in 1951
Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis
December 19th
Sunrise: 7:46am
Sunset: 4:33pm
Hours of Daylight: ~8 hours & 47 minutes
Daylight LOST since yesterday: 42 Seconds
Daylight LOST since Summer Solstice (June 21st): ~ 6 Hour & 55 Minutes
Moon Phase for December 19th at Midnight
0.5 Days Since First Quarter Moon
National High Temps on Tuesday
The weather outlook on Tuesday shows warmer than average temperatures across much of the western half of the nation. Meanwhile, folks in the Southeastern US will be cooler than average in the wake of a large storm system that caused a lot of problems in the Eastern US over the weekend.
National Weather Outlook For Tuesday
The National Weather Outlook on Tuesday shows a little rain and snow lingering in the Northeast, but things are thankfully much quieter than they were over the weekend. A larger storm system will take shape along the West Coast with heavy rain and thunder along the coast and a wintry mix in the high elevations.
National Weather Outlook
The National Weather outlook through Wednesday lingering rain/snow showers in the Northeast on Tuesday with improving weather on Wednesday. Meanwhile, a much larger storm system will take shape in the Western US with heavy rain and thunder along the Coast and some rain/snow in the high elevation.
Extended Precipitation Outlook
The extended precipitation outlook shows heavier precipitation across the Central and Southern US. The heaviest precipitation over the next several days will be in the Western US
Extended Snowfall Outlook
According to the ECMWF weather model, heavy snows are in the forecast across parts of the Western US through early next week. Some of the heaviest and most widespread could be in the high elevations in Colorado and Wyoming. However, there will be some decent tallies in the Plains.
Climate Stories
"SHOCKING BEFORE-AND-AFTER PHOTOS SHOW HOW GREENLAND IS RAPIDLY CHANGING: 'THE CHANGE IS STUNNING'"
"Many of these photos that were originally procured for military operations were able to be used for the benefit of science almost a century later. According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), 2023 is expected to be the hottest year globally in 125,000 years. A new study in Greenland used photographs spanning almost 100 years as visual proof that thousands of glaciers are shrinking as a direct effect of our warming planet, CNN reports. What's happening? Over 200,000 photos of Greenland's glaciers were used to study the landscape changes since the 1930s. Many of these photos that were originally procured for military operations were able to be used for the benefit of science almost a century later. Over the past several decades, the Arctic has warmed four times faster than the rest of the world, PBS NewsHour has reported. The Hill reported that a study published in the journal Nature Communications said the ice shelves in the northern part of Greenland have lost more than 35% of their total volume since 1978."
See more from The Cool Down HERE:
"Extreme weather cost $80 billion this year. The true price is far higher"
"The U.S. saw 25 billion-dollar weather disasters this year — more than ever before. Next year could be worse. You may not remember the tornado that swept through western Mississippi on the night of Friday, March 24, but Eldridge Walker does. Walker, who is both the mayor and the funeral director of the town of Rolling Fork, said it's still hard to fathom the destruction it caused in his town. The twister killed 17 people and injured another 165. It destroyed dozens of houses as well as City Hall, the fire and police stations, post office, elementary school, high school, and hospital — not to mention Walker's home and business. The damages exceeded $100 million, and the cost of the storm that spun off the cyclone approached $2 billion. Nine months later, the recovery remains a work in progress."
"2023 proved that climate change isn't coming — it's here, and things are spiraling out of control"
"Politicians often speak of climate change as a problem for future generations to solve, but many scientists say the time to act is now and that the climate has already changed — it's not a far-off scenario. Never before has the devastation of global heating been more clear than in 2023, which is the hottest year in recorded human history. But if this trend continues, 2023 may be one of the coolest years in recent memory. In other words, things are poised to get a whole lot worse unless we change our relationship with fossil fuels. In the meantime, we can expect the pile of broken records to climb even higher. Here are some of the main ways 2023 became a defining year in our anthropogenic spiral to the bottom, but with our constantly shifting baselines, it's not likely to be an anomaly. Summer 2023 was the hottest summer on record. When United Nations (UN) Secretary General Antonio Guterres told the world in September that summer 2023 had been the hottest summer in recorded history, he did so in unmistakably vivid and dramatic language."
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