Vegas has the 10th-seeded Gophers as 5½ point underdogs against seventh-seeded Louisville in the NCAA opener Thursday — a bigger underdog than any other No. 10 seed.
Florida is just a 2-point underdog as a No. 10 against Nevada; Seton Hall is a 2.5-point underdog against Wofford; and Iowa is a 3.5-point underdog against Cincinnati.
Historically, No. 10 seeds have fared reasonably well but have tended to come up short — to be expected against a higher seeded team.
No. 10 seeds all-time in the first round are 52-84, winning 38.2 percent of the time. Get to the second round, though, and No. 10 seeds are 23-29 — winning 44 percent of the time with a Sweet 16 berth on the line.
FiveThirtyEight's model, by the way, gives the Gophers a 32 percent chance of beating Louisville and a 6 percent chance of reaching the Sweet 16.
Read Michael Rand's blog at startribune.com/randball. michael.rand@startribune.com.
