Warm, Wet, But Snowless February So Far
This has been an interesting February with temps running nearly 4F to 4.5F above average and precipitation running nearly 0.50" above average as well. However even though precipitation has been running above average, we've had very little snowfall. It does look like that could change as we head into next week as we're getting indications of heavy snowfall potential across the region. Stay tuned...
Weekend Weather Outlook
The weekend will be mild with temperatures running above average by almost +5F to +10F. Saturday will be the better day of the weekend with a mix of sun and clouds. Sunday could feature a few light snow showers and a weak clipper slides across the international border.
Status of Spring
"February 13, 2023 - Spring leaf out continues to spread north in southern states, arriving several days to weeks earlier than average (the period of 1991-2020) in much of the Southeast. Oklahoma City, OK is 11 days early, Nashville, TN is 12 days early. Parts of Kentucky, Tennessee, and the Chesapeake Bay are 3-4 weeks early. Much of southern California and Arizona are days to over a week late, while the coastal Northwest is days to weeks early. Las Vegas, NV is one day late. Seattle, WA is a week early. Spring bloom has also arrived along the Gulf Coast and in Florida. Spring bloom is 8 days early in San Antonio, TX, 6 days early in Jacksonville, FL."
Soggy Tuesday Ahead
Here's the weather outlook through early next week, which shows a very weak wave of energy skipping across the international border on Sunday with a very light rain/snow mix across the state. There's a better chance of snow along and north of the I-94 corridor as a more pronounced clipper slides southeast through the region. This one could bring a better chance of plowable snow to the northern half of the state.
Snowfall Potential
The NAM snowfall potential suggests some minor plowable amounts across the northern half of the state Monday into Tuesday. A potentially larger even will unfold mid/late week with widespread plowable amounts across the state. Stay tuned...
Extended Temperature Outlook
The NBM extended temperature outlook for Minneapolis over the next several days shows milder weather returning this upcoming weekend and into early next week with highs in the 30s. Temps take a dive mid/late next week as a potentially much larger and impactful system moves through the Midwest. Highs Thursday and Friday could drop into the teens with overnight lows dipping into the subzero range.
Snow Depth
As of Thursday, February 16th, the MSP Airport still had 4" of snow on the ground, which is much lower than it was earlier this week before Tuesday's rain. There is still nearly 1ft to 2ft of snow across parts of northern Minnesota, Wisconsin and the UP of Michigan.
25th Longest Stretch of 6" Snow Depth a MSP
Believe it or not, the MSP Airport just ended its 25th longest consecutive stretch of at least 6" of snow on the ground after the record setting rainfall on Valentine's Day Tuesday. There was at least 6" of snow on the ground since December 20th with the maximum snow depth at 16" on January 5th & 6th. This was the longest stretch of at least 6" of snow since 2014 (1/14 to 3/13), which was a 59 day day stretch.
Seasonal Snowfall
Taking a look at snowfall since July 1st, many locations have seen above average amounts so far this season, but folks from near Sioux Falls to the Twin Cities and towards Duluth are nearly 15" to 25" above average this month. 55.6" of snow has fallen at the MSP Airport, which is the 10th snowiest start to any season on record.
Twin Cities Weather Outlook For Saturday
The weather outlook for the Twin Cities on Saturday, February 18th mild and quiet weather in place for this time of the year. Highs could approach the upper 30s with light winds and a mix of clouds and sun. It looks like a very pleasant February day, enjoy!
Weather Outlook on Saturday
Temps across the region on Saturday will warm into the 30s across much of the state, which will be nearly +5F to +10F above average for this time of the year. With light winds and sunshine, it will be a very pleasant February day. Enjoy!
Meteograms For Minneapolis
The weather outlook for the Twin Cities through the day Saturday shows temps starting around 20F, but will warm into the mid/upper 30s. Southerly winds will generally be light with plenty of sunshine.
Hourly Feels Like Temps
It'll be a little chilly Saturday morning with feels like temps in the teens, but feels like temps will be around the freezing mark later in the day.
Weather Outlook
Weather conditions through the weekend will generally be quiet in the Midwest. There's a light snow chance early next week as a clipper dives south of the border with minor snow accumulations across northern Minnesota. Things get very interesting mid week next as a much larger storm system appears to develop in the Central US. This storm could bring significant snowfall amounts to parts of the Midwest with strong winds. It's still too early to tell, but stay tuned to further forecast updates.
Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis
After a chilly end of week, temperatures this weekend return to above average levels. A potentially impactful storm system will drop temps to below average levels during the 2nd half of the week.
Extended Weather Outlook For Minneapolis
There's a light rain/snow chance on Tuesday with a better chance of minor snow accumulations in northern Minnesota on Monday. The more interesting weather system will impact the region midweek next week with heavy snow and wind potential. Stay tuned...
8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook
According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14 day temperature outlook shows cooler than average temperatures lingering across the Western US and Midwest. Meanwhile, the southeastern part of the nation will be warmer than average.
8 to 14 Day Precipitation Outlook
According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14 Day precipitation outlook shows more active weather in place across much the Western US and across the Ohio Valley.
Quiet Weekend. Increasing Snow Potential Next Week
By Todd Nelson, filling in for Douglas
Believe it or not, MSP just ended its 25th longest stretch of at least 6 inches of snow on the ground on record. The 57 day stretch ended after record setting rain on Valentine's Day Tuesday and was the longest stretch since 2014, which lasted 59 days.
This winter started on a fast a furious note with a winters worth of snow (55 inches) falling through January. Chalk the last few weeks up to a much needed and prolonged winter intermission. February temps are running nearly 4 degrees above average with snowfall tied for the 4th least snowy start to February on record with only 0.1" falling at the MSP Airport. Interestingly, this is the 18th wettest start to any February on record with nearly 1 inch of liquid (mostly rain) falling in the metro.
A return to winter looks eerily imminent later this week. Both the GFS (American Model) and ECMWF (European Model) are hinting at plowable snow potential Wednesday and Thursday of next week. It's still too early to tell, but stay tuned. Meanwhile, enjoy the somewhat mild and quiet weekend ahead.
Extended Forecast
SATURDAY: Partly sunny & mild. Winds: SE 5. High: 37.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Winds: SSE 5. Low: 24.
SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy & still mild. Winds: NW 7-12. High: 36.
MONDAY: President's Day Clipper. Heavier north. Winds: SSW 5-15. Wake-up: 16. High: 35.
TUESDAY: Cooler winds. PM snow develops. Winds: NNE 10-15. Wake-up: 17. High: 25.
WEDNESDAY: Windy with snow. Could be plowable. Winds: NE 15-30. Wake-up: 16. High: 24.
THURSDAY: Lingering snow and strong winds. Winds: NW 15-30. Wake-up: 12. High: 19.
FRIDAY: Icy start. Some PM sunshine. Winds: SSW 5-10. Wake-up: -4. High: 15.
This Day in Weather History
February 18th
1979: This is one of the rare times that Lake Superior completely freezes over.
Average High/Low for Minneapolis
February 18th
Average High: 30F (Record: 58F set in 1981 & 2017)
Average Low: 14F (Record: -21F set in 1903)
Record Rainfall: 0.70" set in 1961
Record Snowfall: 7.0" set in 1961
Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis
February 18th
Sunrise: 7:08am
Sunset: 5:44pm
Hours of Daylight: ~10 hours & 27 minutes
Daylight GAINED since yesterday: +2 Minutes & 58 Seconds
Daylight GAINED since Winter Solstice (December 21st): ~ 1 hour & 49 minutes
Moon Phase for February 15th at Midnight
1.0 Days Before New Moon
National High Temps on Saturday
Temperatures on Saturday will be mild once again across the Midwest with highs in the 30s and 40s. Meanwhile, lingering cooler weather will be in place across the Southern US with highs only in the 50s.
National Weather Outlook Saturday
The weather outlook for Saturday will be MUCH quieter across the eastern two-thirds of the nation in the wake of that potent storm system that brought widespread heavy rain, severe storms and heavy snowfall to the Central US this week. There will only be a little rain and snow across the High Plains on Saturday.
National Weather Outlook
The weather outlook through the weekend looks rather quiet for many communities. There could be a little snow across the northern tier of the nation, but again it'll be pretty quiet. Things get much more interesting next week as a potentially impactful system develops. Stay tuned!
Extended Precipitation Outlook
According to NOAA's Weather Prediction Center, the extended precipitation outlook shows heavier amounts across the Ohio/Tennessee Valley next week with some showers and storms. The Midwest could see a heap of snow, while heavy precipitation will also be possible across parts of the Western US.
Snowfall Potential
According to the ECMWF (European model), heavy snow will be found across much of the high elevations in the Western US. Parts of the Midwest and Great Lakes could be dealing with significant snowfall next week. Stay tuned...
Climate Stories
"Great Salt Lake's retreat poses a major fear: poisonous dust clouds"
"To walk on to the Great Salt Lake, the largest salt lake in the western hemisphere which faces the astounding prospect of disappearing just five years from now, is to trudge across expanses of sand and mud, streaked with ice and desiccated aquatic life, where just a short time ago you would be wading in waist-deep water. But the mounting sense of local dread over the lake's rapid retreat doesn't just come from its throttled water supply and record low levels, as bad as this is. The terror comes from toxins laced in the vast exposed lake bed, such as arsenic, mercury and lead, being picked up by the wind to form poisonous clouds of dust that would swamp the lungs of people in nearby Salt Lake City, where air pollution is often already worse than that of Los Angeles, potentially provoking a myriad of respiratory and cancer-related problems. This looming scenario, according to Ben Abbott, an ecologist at Brigham Young University, risks "one of the worst environmental disasters in modern US history", surpassing the partial meltdown of the Three Mile Island nuclear reactor in Pennsylvania in 1979 and acting like a sort of "perpetual Deepwater Horizon blowout"."
See more from The Guardian HERE:
"Science institute partners with Vatican on guide to protect 'our living planet'"
"A new collaboration of faith and science looks to equip Catholics with the knowledge and means to turn prayers into actions on the multitude of environmental challenges around the globe, from climate change and pollution, to the rapid loss of species and ecosystems. "Our Common Home: A Guide to Caring for Our Living Planet," is a just-released digital and print resource to help Catholic communities respond to Pope Francis' calls to protect the created world and develop a more sustainable future. It was the result of a joint initiative between the Vatican Dicastery for Promoting Integral Human Development and the Stockholm Environment Institute, a scientific research and policy organization headquartered in the Swedish capital. The idea was first raised in 2020 by the Swedish embassy to the Holy See. The embassy funded the project. The new guidebook provides a straightforward scientific overview of seven environmental topics:"
"Building higher islands could save the Maldives from sea-level rise, says study"
"Artificially raising island heights or building completely new higher islands have been proposed as solutions to sea-level rise in the Maldives and other low-lying nations. Researchers from the University of Southampton, the Tyndall Center for Climate Change Research at the University of East Anglia (UEA) and TEDI-London, working with Maldivian scientists, show that using simple engineering principals to raise islands or build new ones can help small island nations like the Maldives withstand long-term sea level rise due to climate change. This approach is consistent with existing practice in the Maldives, as well as demographic trends—the capital Malé and neighboring islands are attracting a rapidly expanding population as other islands are abandoned. "Our findings indicate that in the extreme the entire population of the Maldives could live on just two islands that are built at a significantly higher elevation than natural islands to withstand sea-level rise," said Prof Robert Nicholls, Director of the Tyndall Center at UEA."
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