Monday Weather Outlook

A fairly pleasant and sunny Monday is expected in the Twin Cities, with morning temperatures in the mid to upper 30s and highs climbing to the low 50s.

Most of the state will see dry conditions Monday, but some morning drizzle can't be ruled out along portions of the North Shore. Up in that area of the state skies will be a bit more cloudy than most other locations. Highs will generally be within a few degrees of average in the 40s to low 50s.


50s This Week

Highs will remain right around average as we head through the last week of October, sticking in the low to mid-50s. Models indicate temperatures trying (but likely failing) to make a run at 60F next Saturday, otherwise, 50s (and potentially even cooler highs than that) will stick around through Halloween and into November, including for the Minnesota Deer Opener.


Mid-Week Soaker

A system moves into the region mid-week, bringing the chance of some beneficial rains to the region. While this rain moves in Tuesday Night and moves out Thursday, the heaviest rain appears to fall on Wednesday across the region. Through the mid-week timeframe (the graphic above shows 48-hour rain potential through 1 AM Friday), at least an inch of rain could fall across a good portion of central and southern Minnesota.


There's Never A Shortage of Weather Jargon
By Paul Douglas

All I want for Christmas is my two front teeth, a shiny new Doppler and a foot of snow to test Santa's new all-weather sleigh. That, and some new weather jargon. "Polar Vortex" entered the popular lexicon last February - although this perpetual blob of bitter air over the Arctic has always been there. Now we have a "Bomb Cyclone" battering the west coast (as strong as some hurricanes), fueled by an "Atmospheric River" funneling tropical moisture inland from as far away as Hawaii. We are a nation of armchair meteorologists, and increasingly crazy weather gives us plenty to talk about.

Blue sky returns today with an outside shot at 60 degrees tomorrow south/west of MSP. Gulf moisture will fuel a slow-moving frontal boundary on Wednesday and Thursday. ECMWF model data hints at 1-2 inch rainfall amounts - we'll see if that forecast is consistent. Saturday looks mellow with a dry Halloween, a stiff breeze; highs in the 40s. Next week looks chilly, but NOAA's GFS model predicts more 50s the second week of November.


Paul's Extended Twin Cities Forecast

MONDAY: Cool sunshine. Wake up 36. High 51. Chance of precipitation 0%. Wind E 7-12 mph.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny and milder. Wake up 38. High 58. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind SE 15-25 mph.

WEDNESDAY: Rain likely. Wake up 45. High 53. Chance of precipitation 100%. Wind SE 10-20 mph.

THURSDAY: Rain, heavy at times. Wake up 44. High 49. Chance of precipitation 100%. Wind NW 10-20 mph.

FRIDAY: Drying out - slow clearing. Wake up 43. High 54. Chance of precipitation 20%. Wind N 10-20 mph.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny and pleasant. Wake up 40. High 57. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind S 7-12 mph.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy, cool breeze. Wake up 39. High 49. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind NW 10-20 mph.


Minneapolis Weather Almanac And Sun Data
October 25th

*Length Of Day: 10 hours, 28 minutes, and 41 seconds
*Daylight LOST Since Yesterday: 2 minutes and 54 seconds

*When Do We Drop Below 10 Hours Of Daylight? November 5th (9 hours, 57 minutes, and 54 seconds)
*Latest Sunrise Before Time Change: November 6th (7:58 AM)
*When Is The Sunset At/Before 6:00 PM?: November 1st (6:00 PM)


This Day in Weather History
October 25th

1887: Albert Lea sets a record low of -6 degrees F.

1830: A 'heat wave' hits Ft. Snelling. The high temperature reached 80.


National Weather Forecast

Two main systems will help to bring showers and storms, as well as some snow (particularly at higher elevations out west) as we head through Monday.

From Sunday through Tuesday, the heaviest precipitation will fall out west, where portions of California could see up to 10" of rain and the Sierra could see a few feet of snow. Another area of heavy rain will fall across portions of the Central U.S. and near the Boston area, with 3" rainfall tallies possible.


Northern lakes warming six times faster in the past 25 years

More from York University: "Lakes in the Northern Hemisphere are warming six times faster since 1992 than any other time period in the last 100 years, research led by York University has found. Lake Superior, the most northern of the Great Lakes which straddles the Canada/United States border, is one of the fastest warming lakes, losing more than two months of ice cover since ice conditions started being recorded in 1857. In Lake Suwa, in Japan, ice formed close to 26 days later per century since 1897 and is now only freezing twice every decade, while Grand Traverse Bay in Lake Michigan had one of the fastest ice-off trends, melting about 16 days earlier per century."

Big Oil's Climate Plans Are Worthless, According to Science

More from Gizmodo: "Oil and gas companies keep saying they're committed to the goals of the Paris Agreement. They keep making net zero promises. They touting high-tech solutions they're working on. It may feel like most of it is bullshit, but now we have the science to prove it. In a study published Thursday in Science, a team of researchers found that of the world's largest 52 publicly traded oil and gas companies, just a little more than half of them had made some sort of pledge to reduce their emissions. Of those companies that made promises, the study found, only two companies' plans actually are enough to keep them in line with the goals set out in the Paris Agreement."

Whitewashing 'Blue Food' Won't Make the World More Green

More from Wired: "Recently, however, calls have emerged not for less fishing, but more, under the banner of a new term encompassing all seafood and aquaculture products: "blue food." The Blue Food Alliance, launched ahead of the UN Food Systems Summit, has brought together academics, policymakers, and corporate donors focused on increasing the consumption of sustainable seafood. The project was introduced with much fanfare, including a set of papers in the journal Nature Food, an editorial in its parent journal Nature, a number of well-placed op-eds by important academics and members of industry, and even a promotional video. According to the group's report, titled "The Blue Food Assessment," seafood and aquaculture often have lower environmental impact and provide greater nutritional benefits than terrestrial foods while contributing to food security, making it economically and ecologically sustainable. But this blue-food narrative relies on generalizations and omissions that obscure the facts about the impacts of seafood. Just as harmful industries such as Big Oil and Big Livestock have promoted superficial production tweaks and embraced the language of sustainability, so too has the seafood industry."


Thanks for checking in and have a great day! Don't forget to follow me on Twitter (@dkayserwx) and like me on Facebook (Meteorologist D.J. Kayser).

- D.J. Kayser