Fall Color Update

Pic: Maplewood State Park Saturday. Credit: D.J. Kayser

My wife and I spent some time out at Maplewood State Park over the past several days, taking in the nice weather (maybe getting a little too much sun - reminder: you can still get a sunburn at the end of September!) and enjoying some of the fall colors across the region. While there were patches of reds and yellows that were duller than normal due to the dry conditions of the past summer, there were still many areas that hadn't yet started to change color.

As we look at the statewide color map, many areas are running between 10-50% at the moment. However, to find the best current color (even if it is duller due to the drought) you should head to northern Minnesota where some areas were reporting peak color this past weekend. You can follow the MN DNR Fall Color Finder throughout the fall color season by clicking here.


Lows At/Below 35F So Far

Another reason why the colors are quickly changing up north - especially in northeastern Minnesota - has been cool mornings. Several locations have dipped down to at least 35F at least 10 times.


Monday Weather Outlook

A mainly sunny and quiet Monday is on tap as temperatures start off in the 50s in the Twin Cities and climb to the upper 70s - a good ~10F degrees above average. You may note that moon icon at 7 AM. Our sunrise is now at 7:06 AM as we officially dipped below 12 hours of daylight on Sunday - the amount of light during the day just keeps on getting shorter as we quickly approach winter!

A mainly sunny and quite above average late September day is expected across the state Monday, with highs a good 5-15F degrees above average. Out into portions of the Dakotas, they'll be 20-25F degrees above the late September norms.


Warm First Half Of Week

Despite our late September warmth, we aren't expected to see record highs in the Twin Cities in the next several days as our records are still right around 90F. Especially as you head north, however, we could see some records fall including in Baudette both Tuesday and Wednesday, potentially International Falls Tuesday, and potentially in Hibbing on Wednesday.


Wetter Second Half Of Week

We are watching a frontal boundary approaching from the west as we head into the second half of the weekend, but there are questions as to how far east it'll be before dissipating. That will bring in the chance of some showers from Thursday into the weekend, with better chances early in the period off to the west.

The Weather Prediction Center is showing the potential of a quarter to half-inch or so of rain across portions of central and southern Minnesota through next Sunday morning with this late week system.


Rain After A Dry Spell Can Be Hazardous
By Paul Douglas

I've been watching Formula One Racing this year, intrigued how weather impacts everything from tire selection to passing strategies. During Sunday's race in Sochi meteorologists were tracking individual rain showers, which turned the track into an ice skating rink toward the end of the race.

Oil from exhaust can mix with rain or drizzle to create slippery roads, especially at the very beginning of a rain event, until the the oils wash off roadway surfaces. After a long dry spell light rain can leave our roads unusually slick too.

That won't be an issue through Thursday as an August-like high pressure bubble of unusually warm air lures the mercury into the low 80s. A few showers may push into far western Minnesota late Thursday, with metro puddles possible Friday into Saturday. It's early (it's always early) but right now Sunday appears to be the brighter, drier day of the weekend.

I keep waiting for the other shoe to drop, but models suggest warmer than average weather into mid-October. So it goes.


Paul's Extended Twin Cities Forecast

MONDAY: Sunny and pleasant. Wake up 56. High 77. Chance of precipitation 0%. Wind NE 7-12 mph.

TUESDAY: Warm sunshine. Wake up 55. High 81. Chance of precipitation 0%. Wind SE 8-13 mph.

WEDNESDAY: August redux. Sunny, risk of shorts. Wake up 58. High 84. Chance of precipitation 0%. Wind SE 8-13 mph.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny, T-showers western MN. Wake up 61. High 82. Chance of precipitation 20%. Wind SE 5-10 mph.

FRIDAY: Growing chance of showers, T-storms. Wake up 62. High 80. Chance of precipitation 70%. Wind S 8-13 mph.

SATURDAY: Cloudier and cooler with showers. Wake up 63. High 72. Chance of precipitation 70%. Wind NW 5-10 mph.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny, probably dry. Wake up 56. High 73. Chance of precipitation 20%. Wind N 5-10 mph.


Minneapolis Weather Almanac And Sun Data
September 27th

*Length Of Day:11 hours, 53 minutes, and49 seconds
*Daylight LOST Since Yesterday: 3 minutes and 6 seconds

*When Do We Drop Below 11.5 Hours Of Daylight? October 5th (11 hours, 29 minutes, and1 second)
*When Is The Sunrise At/After 7:30 AM?: October 16th (7:30 AM)
*When Is The Sunset At/Before 6:30 PM?: October 14th (6:29 PM)


This Day in Weather History
September 27th

1942: Minneapolis has a high temperature of only 40 degrees.

1898: A heat wave produces highs of 91 degrees at Beardsley and 90 at Moorhead.


National Weather Forecast

A system in the Pacific Northwest will bring rain across the region into northern California, with some snow mixing in in the higher elevations like the Cascades. A frontal boundary near the Northeast will bring shower chances. Some storms will be possible in the Four Corners region and along portions of the Gulf Coast.

Several inches of precipitation will be possible across portions of the Pacific Northwest and New England through 7 PM Tuesday.


A deadly fungal disease on the rise in the West has experts worried

More from the Grist: "At 5 a.m. on December 4, 2017, Jesse Merrick got a text from his roommate. "Hoping your family is OK," he remembers reading when he woke up. The Thomas Fire had just broken out in Southern California and was quickly growing into a nearly 300,000-acre behemoth. Jesse frantically tried to reach his relatives in Ventura. When he finally got hold of his mom, she was broken. "She answers the phone and she's crying hysterically," Jesse said. "She says, 'It's gone. It's all gone.'"The Merricks' ranch-style home, with most of Jesse's childhood stuff in it, burned down that day. A week after the fire, he flew out to help his mom salvage what was left. They spent days sifting through the rubble. Jesse, a former college football player, took on the strenuous task of sorting through the wreckage in the deep, charcoaled hull of their basement. The whole family wore masks to protect their lungs from the dust and gloves to shield their hands from sharp objects. But it wasn't protection enough from the danger lurking in the dirt."

Fires are lasting longer into the night, and researchers may have found out why

More from the Capital Weather Gang: "Satellite data and ground reports indicate wildfire activity has increased at night in recent decades, meaning firefighters have less time to rest and regroup overnight. This year, the Caldor fire southwest of Lake Tahoe, which has consumed more than 220,000 acres as of Sept. 24, more than doubled overnight early on. The Windy fire also experienced significant overnight growth as it burned in the Sequoia National Forest. Potter and his colleagues investigated why firefighters are seeing more nighttime fire activity now than at the beginning of their careers. In a recent study, they found air over most of the western U.S. has become drier and warmer at night over the past 40 years, influencing the rate at which vegetation and other fuels for fire will dry out and burn."

NOAA-led drought task force concludes current Southwest drought is a preview of coming attractions

More from climate.gov: "A new assessment from a NOAA-led task force has concluded that the unprecedented drought parching the U.S. Southwest since 2020 is not entirely natural. The team found that the record-low precipitation that kicked off the event could have been a flukeā€”just the rare bad luck of natural variability. But the drought would not have reached its current punishing intensity without the extremely high temperatures brought by human-caused global warming."


Thanks for checking in and have a great day! Don't forget to follow me on Twitter (@dkayserwx) and like me on Facebook (Meteorologist D.J. Kayser).

- D.J. Kayser