Jay Lietzau's Preakness picks: It's a race for some exotic betting

By Jay Lietzau

For the Minnesota Star Tribune
May 20, 2022 at 5:20PM
Preakness entrant Epicenter, left, the runner up in the Kentucky Derby horse race, leaves the track after a workout earlier this week. (Julio Cortez, Associated Press/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Just when you think you've seen everything there is to see in this challenging game, the 2022 Kentucky Derby happens and makes you question everything you've ever learned.

Rich Strike's improbable victory came out of nowhere. He had beaten soundly by many he was facing. His speed figures on the dirt weren't even in the same time zone as the top contender. His only win was against maiden claimers. His jockey and trainer could have bumped into me in the ATM line and I wouldn't have known who they were.

Yet on any given first Saturday in May, anything can happen. So, with two weeks to lick our wounds, replenish our bankrolls and regain our confidence, we're now ready to conquer the Preakness Stakes.

Contenders: Epicenter ran a winning race in the Derby. He stalked a wickedly fast pace, had to make a premature move to avoid tiring horses around the final turn and then held off all but one closer who benefited from the hot early pace. The Preakness should be much less taxing early allowing Epicenter to comfortably track the front runners, conserve energy and wear them down in the stretch. Simplification is also exiting the Derby after a hard fought fourth place finish in the Run for the Roses. He had to check fairly early in the race, losing position and costing him many lengths putting him farther back than he is accustomed to. Once he entered the stretch, he had to go extremely wide on the track to find running room. His versatile running style should allow Velazquez to see how the race unfolds in front of him and adapt accordingly. Expecting him to be right there at the wire.

Potential: Early Voting has speed, Jose Ortiz and Chad Brown which can be a lethal combination. However, does he have the seasoning needed to win the second jewel of the Triple Crown? Will he get an uncontested lead like he did in the Wood Memorial? Creative Minister is a rapidly improving and lightly raced. He ran well on the Derby undercard but takes a major step up in class and will need to show an additional gear hear to compete. Skippylongstocking has danced many dances coming into the Preakness but has shown consistent improvement and his experience might allow him to wear them down late.

Wagering Strategy:

We're going to skip betting to win and go straight to the exotic wagers with a couple of exactas and a trifecta.

$50 Exacta: Epicenter/Simplification ($50)

$20 Exacta: Simplification/Epicenter ($20)

$5 Trifecta: 1. Epicenter, Simplification; 2. Epicenter, Simplification; 3. Early Voting, Creative Minister, Skippylongstocking ($30)

$100 Total Bet

Lovely Brown, 4, meets Preakness contender Simplification with the assistance of the horse’s owner Tami Bobo on Tuesday. (Jerry Jackson, Associated Press/The Minnesota Star Tribune)
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about the writer

Jay Lietzau

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