From 2011-14, the Twins have stunk. Nobody would argue this.
We're here to talk about how those seasons have progressed: bad but not historically awful for the first 100 games or so before descending into truly terrible territory in the final two months.
First, the what: Entering play Tuesday, the Twins were a combined 71-143 in games from 2011-14 that came after Aug. 1 in those seasons. It doesn't take a math whiz to realize they aren't even winning one of every three games in the dog days. They wouldn't win any pennants with their 187-234 pace before Aug. 1 of those seasons, but that's a .444 winning percentage and a pace to win 72 games over a full season — bad, but competent by comparison.
Why do the Twins nose-dive every year? That's a little trickier, but here is an attempt at explanation, with a mix of fact and theory:
• The bullpen, a source of strength early in the season, turns to mush late in the year because of overuse tied to an ineffective starting staff. It happened in 2013, and it's happening again in a bigger way in 2014.
The bullpen ERAs, by month, this season for the Twins: March/April: 3.42; May: 3.86; June: 2.96; July: 2.53. The MLB average for the season is 3.58. But now? The Twins' bullpen ERA soared to 5.09 in August and has ballooned to 5.70 through Monday in September.
The same thing happened last year, with very good bullpen numbers through August before the relievers' ERA bloated to 4.96 in September.
This year, Minnesota's bullpen is tied for the second-most innings pitched in MLB. Last year, the Twins led the majors in that category. A depleted bullpen is a recipe for disaster, as we have found out several times in the past few weeks.