Light Snow Thursday Into Thursday Night

As a system moves through the upper Midwest Thursday, we should see some light snow occur as we go throughout the day into the evening hours across southern Minnesota. While the snow could fall for an extended period of time across portions of southern Minnesota, the dry atmosphere will help limit the amount of snow that actually falls and accumulates. The forecast loop above runs from 6 AM Thursday to Midnight Thursday Night.

While snow totals are expected to be generally light across southern Minnesota (mainly under half an inch), I would expect very slick conditions during the second half of Thursday, similar to what we saw Monday and Tuesday mornings due to the light snow. This would include the evening commute Thursday. And with bitterly cold temperatures Thursday night, I would not be surprised to see slick spots Friday morning.


Another Light Snow Chance Friday Night

Another light snow chance will move across southern Minnesota Friday Night into early Saturday mainly south of the 494-694 loop. In some areas, up to a half an inch of snow will be possible.


Cold Stretch Of Weather Continues

I am running out of words to say that it's still cold out there - and it will be once again Thursday. Most areas of the state will be in the double digits below zero for morning lows, with the negative 30s possible in northern Minnesota. In some areas far up north, wind chills could approach -50F.

Afternoon highs in the Twin Cities Thursday will barely climb above zero, with wind chill values sticking in the negative teens. We will watch the chance for some light afternoon snow, but as mentioned above, this will cause slick roads heading toward the evening commute.

Highs in northern Minnesota Thursday will stay below zero, with highs from St. Cloud southward barely making it to or above zero. These highs will be 25F to 30F degrees below average. We will watch the light snow chance across the southern half of the state.

And the cold weather continues through the end of the week into the weekend with Arctic air still in place. We could see a stretch of two or three days with subzero temperatures here in the Twin Cities. The coldest morning of the next several days in the Twin Cities looks to be Sunday morning with a low around -15F.

And when you factor in the wind, it'll continue to feel between -25F and -50F across the state each of these mornings as well.

So putting it in a nice, little summary for the Twin Cities - it remains cold! The coldest day looks to be Valentine's Day Sunday, with morning wind chills in the -30s and highs below zero. The good news not shown here is that Tuesday highs look to climb back into the teens above zero - and even warmer weather is expected later next week into the weekend. I know I'm ready to get out of the freezer!


Consecutive Days Below +10F

We continue to add up the number of consecutive days with a high colder than +10F in the Twin Cities. Tuesday made it four days in a row, and the current forecast would keep us at these cold levels through Monday. That would be ten days in a row, which would tie for the eighth longest stretch on record. The most was 15 days in a row set four different times, most recently between December 1973 and January 1974.


Consecutive Subzero Lows

We are also tracking the number of consecutive days with a subzero low. Wednesday morning marked the fifth day in a row. With these cold lows expected to continue through at least next Tuesday morning, that would be eleven nights in a row, tied for the 25th longest stretch on record.


A Faint Echo of "Pioneer Cold"
By Paul Douglas

I wonder if our grandkids will complain every time it goes below freezing in the year 2100? Pioneer temperatures in the 1800s routinely fell to -30 and -40F in the metro. Winter was not so much to be enjoyed but survived.

Ample food on hand, enough wood to keep the fire going for months, enough blankets and layers of clothing to avoid frostbite inside log cabins, which were anything but warm and cozy. I wonder what settlers at Fort Snelling in the 1830s would make of the marvelous inventions that keep us in our warm-weather-bubbles?

The end is near - to this annoying cold wave. Weather models are fairly consistent now, predicting teens next week, and a run of 20s and a few 30s the last week of February. After what we've just endured this qualifies as a warm front.

A quick inch of powder falls later today, but the adage 'too cold to snow' (much) rings true. Big snowy storms track to our south until further notice. Dallas, Texas may pick up 6-12 inches of snow early next week. Thoughts and prayers.


Paul's Extended Twin Cities Forecast

THURSDAY: Bitter clipper. Quick inch. Wake up -12. High 1. Chance of precipitation 90%. Wind N 5-10 mph.

FRIDAY: Blue sky, feels like -15F. Wake up -9. High 1. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind N 5-10 mph.

SATURDAY: Sunny, still tundra-like. Wake up -7. High 5. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind W 3-8 mph.

SUNDAY: Coldest day of winter? Feels like -35F. Wake up -15. High -4. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind NW 8-13 mph.

MONDAY: Bright sunshine, light winds. Wake up -15. High 2. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind SE 3-8 mph.

TUESDAY: Cloudy with flurries. Wake up -3. High 11. Chance of precipitation 40%. Wind NE 5-10 mph.

WEDNESDAY: Mix of clouds and sun. Better. Wake up -4. High 13. Chance of precipitation 20%. Wind SW 5-10 mph.


This Day in Weather History
February 11th

1932: Mizpah picks up 13 inches of snow in a storm.


Average Temperatures & Precipitation for Minneapolis
February 11th

Average High: 28F (Record: 57F set in 1882)
Average Low: 11F (Record: -31F set in 1899)
Average Precipitation: 0.02" (Record: 0.28" set in 1965)
Average Snowfall: 0.2" (Record: 4.1" in 1979)
Record Snow Depth: 20" in 1969


Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis
February 11th

Sunrise: 7:19 AM
Sunset: 5:35 PM

*Length Of Day: 10 hours, 16 minutes and 37 seconds
*Daylight GAINED Since Yesterday: ~2 minutes and 51 seconds

*When Do We Climb To 10.5 Hours Of Daylight? February 16th (10 hours, 31 minutes, and 11 seconds)
*When Is The Sunrise At/Before 7:00 AM?: February 23rd (7:00 AM)
*When Is The Sunset At/After 6:00 PM? March 1st (6:01 PM)


National Weather Forecast

As we head through Thursday, icing concerns will continue from central Texas through the Mid-Atlantic, with some snow into portions of the Northeast and storms in the warm sector of the system. A system out west will bring rain and snow chances, with some snow in the upper Midwest and Great Lakes.

Up to at least a half an inch of ice will be possible from the Ozarks to eastern Kentucky (more on this below). Some areas west of D.C. could see over a half a foot of snow through Friday with feet of snow at higher elevations out west. Up to 3" of rain could fall in portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley.


Praedictix Corporate Extreme Weather Briefing: Wednesday morning, February 10th, 2021

Ice Storm Concerns

Ice Storm. With a stationary frontal boundary stretching across portions of the Southern Plains and Tennessee Valley, wintry precipitation – particularly in the form of freezing rain – is expected on the north side of the system from the Dallas area to the Ohio Valley today and Thursday due to cold air moving in at the surface. Precipitation will continue to expand across the region today into Thursday with waves of freezing rain falling. Some of the greatest ice accumulation is expected from the Ozarks to eastern Kentucky, where at least a quarter to a half an inch of ice could fall.

Ice Storm Warnings. Numerous Ice Storm Warnings have been issued from Arkansas to Kentucky through Thursday for the major icing threat across the region. Other areas stretching from the Southern Plains to the Mid-Atlantic have Winter Storm Watches and Warnings and Winter Weather Advisories in place for ice and/or snow. Some of the major cities under alerts include:

Ice Storm Warnings:

  • Little Rock, AR: Through Noon Thursday for total ice accumulations between 0.25-0.50", mainly tonight into Thursday.
  • Jonesboro, AR: Through Noon Thursday for up to 0.25" of ice.
  • Paducah, KY: Through 6 PM Thursday for up to 0.50" of ice.
  • Lexington, KY: Through 7 PM Thursday for up to 0.50" of ice, with localized amounts to 0.75".
  • Jackson, KY: Through 7 AM Friday for up to 0.50" of ice with locally higher amounts.

Winter Storm Warnings:

  • Charleston, WV: Through 7 AM Friday for 3-5" of snow and up to 0.10" of ice.

Winter Storm Watches:

  • Memphis, TN: From 6 PM Wednesday through Noon Thursday for up to 0.20" of ice.
  • Roanoke, VA: From 1 PM Thursday through 7 PM Friday for up to 4" of snow/sleet and up to 0.10" of ice.
  • Richmond, VA: From 1 PM Thursday through 1 PM Friday for 3-5" of snow and a glaze of ice.

Winter Weather Advisories:

  • Dallas, TX: Through 6 AM Thursday for light icing.
  • Oklahoma City, OK: Through 6 PM tonight for up to 0.10" of ice.
  • St. Louis, MO: Through Noon today for up to 1" of snow.
  • Nashville, TN: From 6 PM tonight through 6 PM Thursday for up to 0.20" of ice.
  • Louisville, KY: Through 7 PM Thursday for 1-2" of snow/sleet and up to 0.20" of ice.
  • Washington D.C.: From 7 PM tonight through 10 AM Thursday for 1-3" of snow.
  • Philadelphia, PA: From 7 PM tonight through Noon Thursday for 1-3" of snow.

Potential Ice Totals. The ice potential will be the greatest threat across the mid-Mississippi Valley, Ohio, and Tennessee Valleys through the middle of the week. We could see at least 0.25" of ice from the Ozarks to portions of eastern Kentucky, with some of the highest totals across southern and eastern Kentucky, south of the Western Kentucky and Bluegrass Parkways. This ice would lead to hazardous or impossible travel conditions, and there would be the potential for tree damage and power outages.

An Early Heads Up. As we head toward the second half of this weekend into Presidents' Day, another system will be diving south across the Southern Plains, bringing the potential of another round of snow and ice due to the cold air in place. We will keep an eye on this over the next several days and will continue to update.

Pacific Northwest Snow

Winter Storm Watches. Meanwhile, as an area of low-pressure approaches and makes landfall in southern Oregon Thursday, cold air will be in place across portions of the Pacific Northwest. This setup could lead to snow in lowland areas along with the typical mountain snow. Another system will be possible Friday Night into Saturday. Some Winter Storm Watches have been issued for this potential, including the following areas:

  • Portland, OR: From Noon Thursday through 10 AM Saturday for 3-5" of snow Thursday night into Friday, with another 3-5" of snow Friday night into Saturday.
  • Salem, OR: From 4 PM Thursday through 10 AM Saturday for 1-4" of snow Thursday night into Friday, with up to 0.4" of ice Friday night into Saturday.
  • Eugene, OR: From 7 PM Thursday through Noon Friday for freezing rain.
  • Olympia and Tacoma, WA: From 10 AM Thursday through 10 PM Friday for 2-4" of snow.

Snow Potential. While we are anticipating lowland snow during the second half of the week into the weekend in the Pacific Northwest, there is still uncertainty in how much could fall – including for Seattle and Portland – depending on the overall track of the systems and the cold air mass that is in place. Stay tuned over the next few days for the latest on these storms but be prepared for the potential of rough travel across the region.

D.J. Kayser, Meteorologist, Praedictix


AOML Hurricane Scientists Facilitate Leap in Hurricane Modeling and Prediction Systems

More from NOAA: "Hurricane scientists at NOAA's Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory have created a new, advanced moving nest system within the Unified Forecast System, the bedrock of NOAA's weather prediction applications. AOML's Hurricane Modeling and Prediction Team developed the high-resolution moving nest for the FV3 dynamical core, laying the foundation for next-generation advancements in hurricane forecasting."

Why oil giants are swapping oil rigs for offshore windfarms

More from The Guardian: "The world's biggest oil companies are no stranger to UK waters, but by the end of the decade they will be running more offshore wind turbines than oil rigs. BP has already made a splash with a record-breaking bid to build two giant windfarms in the Irish Sea. The company beat established renewable energy players by offering to pay the Crown Estate £900m a year to develop the sites, more than 15 times the price paid for similar deals in the past."

The scariest thing about climate change isn't the weather—it's us

More from Fast Company: "Last year saw a raft of unprecedented extreme-weather events—the biggest-ever California wildfire, the most named storms in the Atlantic, the costliest thunderstorm in U.S. history. Experts said these disasters both highlight the current toll of climate change and provide a grim preview of what's to come. Last year also saw unprecedented attacks on U.S. democracy—a president who refused to concede an election he lost, his allies who tried to overturn the results, his supporters who laid siege to the Capitol. Though few people would say so, these events also show what we might expect in a hotter, more turbulent world."


Thanks for checking in and have a great day! Don't forget to follow me on Twitter (@dkayserwx) and like me on Facebook (Meteorologist D.J. Kayser).

- D.J. Kayser