The tip was sent by a city tech worker: a single person could, in one fell swoop, disable almost every traffic light in Vilnius, Lithuania's capital.
It proved true, said Aurimas Navys, a former officer at Lithuania's State Security Department. Navys, who had received the tip despite his recent retirement, made sure the vulnerability was fixed.
Lithuania and the other Baltic states, Estonia and Latvia, all NATO members, are scrambling, he said, to identify such weaknesses and the individuals who might exploit them on behalf of Russia. Navys reckoned that the defensive efforts of the Baltic states have multiplied tenfold since 2014. That was when Russia seized Crimea and, in Ukraine's east, set off separatist fighting.
Russia pulled that off with help from supporters in Ukraine, many of whom had been cultivated by Russia's intelligence agencies. Kremlin supporters in Ukraine's military bureaucracy in Kiev proved especially damaging, Navys said. They stalled Ukraine's response to the seizure of its territory.
Ukraine had failed to search hard enough for Russian assets in its midst, said Raimundas Karoblis, Lithuania's defense minister. "We now, after Ukraine, have learned the lessons," he said.
The Baltics are keen to avoid Ukraine's mistakes. Recent remarks by Russian officials and Kremlin mouthpieces have highlighted the danger. As their propaganda has it, parts of Lithuania were gifts from Moscow in Soviet times and belong to Russia. Troublingly, that was Russia's rationale for annexing Crimea.
The Baltic states reckon that to thwart a destabilization campaign that Russia could launch, perhaps to support an armed attack, they should determine who might be susceptible to the Kremlin's bidding. So the search is on for people involved in what officials call "Russian influence activities" as well as, more darkly, "sleeper cells."
Consider the following hypothetical, said Stephen Flanagan, a specialist on Eastern Europe at America's National Security Council during Russia's offensive in Ukraine. A rumor spreads that an ethnic Russian girl in Estonia has been raped. A local pro-Kremlin motorcycle gang is told to wreak havoc. The Kremlin, which has asserted a right to protect ethnic Russians abroad, might then send troops. At least two Russian security agencies operate in the Baltic states, Flanagan said.