How would a contested Republican convention work?

The chances of a contested Republican National Convention increased Tuesday with front-runner Donald Trump's loss in the Wisconsin primary to Texas Sen. Ted Cruz. Trump isn't accumulating delegates quickly enough to ensure he'll win a majority before the party gathers in Cleveland in July to choose a nominee. Josh Putnam, a political science lecturer at the University of Georgia and founder of Frontloading HQ, a site that tracks the presidential primary calendar, explains what could happen.

Q: Will Donald Trump get to 1,237 delegates before the Republican convention or not?

A: The calendar has entered an extended period of only sporadic contests that will stretch on between now and the beginning of June.

Trump's Wisconsin loss wasn't a huge factor. One might be better served by looking for points on the calendar where more delegates are on the line: the eight day stretch in later this month encompassing a number of mid-Atlantic and northeastern states (267 delegates) and June 7 when California and New Jersey, among others, hold contests (303 delegates).

That is nearly 600 delegates in areas that look to be favorable to Trump. It is those respective caches of delegates that will go a long way toward answering the 1,237 question. Ohio Gov. John Kasich currently has no electoral path to collecting enough delegates.

Q: Is California on June 7 all that matters?

A: If a candidate is going to get to or over 1,237 — and Trump is likely the only candidate who can do so before Cleveland — that cannot mathematically occur until June 7.

Q: What will the first ballot look like and what do we know about subsequent ballots?

A: There is a very definite sequence to this process. First, who are the delegates? We are only now getting an answer to that question and will continue to gather more information as the selection process picks up steam in April and into May. The delegates selected — or rather the delegations selected — choose who among them will represent the 56 states and territories on the various convention committees. Each delegation selects two members from among their ranks to represent them on the Convention Rules Committee, two others for the Convention Credentials Committee and so on.

The Rules Committee will consider and pass any rules changes that will then go to the floor of the convention for ratification (or a broader floor fight over rules) before all 2,472 delegates.

It is that step that is most important and perhaps most shrouded in mystery. Until those pieces are in place, we really have nothing to go on except the temporary rules in place as holdovers from the Tampa convention in 2012. Without knowing the 2016 rules, it is difficult to assess how any vote, first or 101st, will go.

Q: Why do the 2012 rules matter?

A: The campaigns currently vying for the 2016 Republican presidential nomination have been operating as if the 2012 rules — temporary or not — are the rules of the game. The campaigns are also behaving as if the oft-discussed Rule 40(b) — the rule setting a majority of delegates in eight states as the threshold for a candidate to be placed in nomination — is and will be a rule at the 2016 convention. Acting like those are the rules and actually getting close to or over either of those thresholds means that there will be a campaign or two that will defend those rules.

As Trump and Cruz are likely the only two candidates to surpass the Rule 40 barrier, they have an interest in maintaining the current rules to keep other candidates off a first ballot vote.

A first ballot vote with just two candidates, neither of whom is north of 1,237, and something relatively close to the current rules would likely mean an inconclusive outcome. That depends on how many unbound delegates there are. And that may depend on whether the candidates who have suspended their campaigns have released their delegates. In most states, suspension of a campaign is not enough to release bound delegates. Only the unbound delegates would be free agents on the first ballot.

Q: What if ex-candidate delegates aren't freed?

A: Their votes will not be recorded. If no one gets to 1,237, the process goes to a second ballot.

After the first ballot, a little less than 60 percent of the delegates will become unbound and free agents on a subsequent vote. Either they can join one of the qualifying candidates or if there is enough support (a majority of delegates in at least eight states) for a different candidate, they could place another name in nomination. If Cruz is as organized elsewhere as his campaign has been in states that have voted, he would be advantaged on a second ballot and reduce the likelihood of it going beyond that point.