Hot Fourth Of July Weekend
The heat has returned just in time for Independence Day weekend in the Twin Cities! Saturday will feature bright sunshine and highs climbing into the mid-90s.
Dry, sunny, hot weather is expected across the state Saturday with highs that'll climb into the 90s for most locations. If you're going to be outside, try to stay in the shade and drink lots of water!
Many areas of the state will reach the 90s for highs on Independence Day Sunday, the exception being along the North Shore where highs will be "stuck" in the 80s. A few locations out in southwestern Minnesota may even approach 100F! As a cold front slowly starts to sag southward on Sunday, a few showers and storms will be possible during the daytime hours across the northern half of the state.
As we look at the Twin Cities, once again we'll see mainly sunny conditions this weekend with hot weather in place. I can't rule out an isolated storm potentially making its way into the Twin Cities late Sunday afternoon, but a better chance of storms will potentially occur into the overnight hours. However, we are still going to be hot on Monday with highs in the 90s once again.
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Warm June Recap
June 2021 will be remembered as a hot one in the Twin Cities, but it won't go down as the hottest June on record. The average temperature last month was 76.8F, +7.1F from average. We came in second place for hottest June on record, just behind 1933 with saw a 77.9F average temperature. The twelve days we saw with a high of at least 90F was tied for the fourth-most on record for June - 1933 saw 17 days, and both 1988 and 1910 saw a total of 13 days.
The month will also be remembered for being quite dry across the state, with all climate sites reporting below average values between 1" to 3" from the normal. In the Twin Cities, it was the 25th driest June on record.
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Recent Rains Don't Help The Drought Situation
Despite the heavy roaming showers and storms we saw earlier this week, they didn't really help the drought situation out too much across the state. The area under Moderate Drought is now up to 82.14% of Minnesota, up from 74.75% last week. Severe Drought did decrease slightly - down to 11.14% vs. 13.75% the previous week.
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4th of July Weekend: Hot Enough For Me
By Paul Douglas
The frequency and intensity of heat waves is increasing in a warming world - more sudden "heat spikes" that set new records and threaten hundreds, even thousands of premature deaths. The Pacific Northwest and British Columbia just experienced historic heat, in some cases 50F warmer than usual, which is just incredible. California may experience blistering heat next week with temperatures as high as 115F.
Our proximity to one of the biggest air conditioners on the planet (nicknamed "Canada") will limit just how hot it can get here: low 90s today but mid 90s for the 4th of July with a few PM pop-up thunderstorms. Odds favor dry weather for fireworks in most communities Sunday evening. The chance of rain increases Tuesday with a cooling trend next week. No 100-degree heat here looking out 2 weeks in consistently hurricane-free Minnesota. "Elsa" is no Disney character, but a hurricane heading toward Cuba, possibly impacting Florida Tuesday; a first hurricane coming 6 weeks earlier than usual. My take: let it go.
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Paul's Extended Twin Cities Forecast
SATURDAY: Hot sunshine. Wake up 66. High 92. Chance of precipitation 0%. Wind SW 10-15 mph.
SUNDAY: Hazy sunshine, late PM T-storm? Wake up 73. High 94. Chance of precipitation 40%. Wind SW 10-20 mph.
MONDAY: Some sun, few T-showers. Wake up 74. High 91. Chance of precipitation 40%. Wind N 7-12 mph.
TUESDAY: More numerous showers, T-storms. Wake up 72. High 83. Chance of precipitation 60%. Wind NE 10-20 mph.
WEDNESDAY: Getting sunnier, more comfortable. Wake up 66. High 78. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind NE 10-15 mph.
THURSDAY: Sunny, breezy and warm. Wake up 60. High 81. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind SE 8-13 mph.
FRIDAY: Unsettled, few T-storms. Wake up 64. High 84. Chance of precipitation 60%. Wind W 15-30 mph.
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Minneapolis Weather Almanac And Sun Data
July 3rd
*Length Of Day: 15 hours, 31 minutes and 0 seconds
*Daylight LOST Since Yesterday: 52 seconds
*When Do We Drop Below 15 Hours And 30 Minutes Of Daylight? July 5th (15 hours, 29 minutes, and 3 seconds)
*When Is The Sunrise At/After 6 AM?: August 2nd (6:00 AM)
*When Is The Sunset At/Before 8:30 PM?: August 7th (8:30 PM)
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This Day in Weather History
July 3rd
1947: Tornadoes hit Marshall and Polk Counties.
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National Weather Forecast
On Saturday, a stalled-out boundary from the Southern Plains to the Southeast will bring the potential for showers and storms. That boundary stretches north into the Northern Plains, where it will slowly move east through the day, sparking off some late-day storms - some of which could be strong. Rain and storms will be possible in the Northeast with a low moving offshore.
The heaviest rain through the Independence Day weekend will be from the Southern Plains through the Southeast (particularly along portions of the coasts) and into New England, where at least 1-2" of rain could fall.
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Latest On Elsa
Elsa became a hurricane Friday morning as the system was approaching the Lesser Antilles. As the system continues to race off to the west it should remain at hurricane strength before finally weakening as it deals with land interactions late this weekend into early into next week. It looks like Elsa will cross Cuba early next week before impacting the Southeastern United States with strong winds, heavy rain, and storm surge.
As of early Friday evening, Tropical Storm and Hurricane Watches and Warnings stretched the Caribbean from Cuba to the Lesser Antilles.
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Over 100 fire scientists urge the US West: Skip the fireworks this record-dry 4th of July
More from The Conversation: "For decades, one of the most striking and predictable patterns of human behavior in the western U.S. has been people accidentally starting fires on the Fourth of July. From 1992 to 2015, more than 7,000 wildfires started in the U.S. on July 4 – the most wildfires ignited on any day during the year. And most of these are near homes. With this year's tinder-dry grasslands and parched forests, sparks from anything – a cigarette, a campfire, a power line, even a mower blade hitting a rock – could ignite a wildfire, with deadly consequences."
Astounding heat obliterates all-time records across the Pacific Northwest and Western Canada in June 2021
More from Climate.gov: "One of, if not the, worst heat wave in the region's modern records impacted the Pacific Northwest of the United States and western Canada during late June 2021, not just breaking records but smashing them over an incredibly hot four-day period. And unlike the heat wave across the Southwest United States in mid-June, this time the dangerous heat was felt across a region not known for such extremes. ... Portland, Oregon's, average high temperature over this period was 112 degrees Fahrenheit, the hottest three-day period on record by an astonishing 6 degrees. All three days—108 on June 26, 112 on June 27, and 116 on June 28—set all-time heat records for the city. Seattle, Washington, also had back-to-back days that set all-time heat records: 108 on June 28 after reaching 104 the day prior. In fact, in the previous 126 years, Seattle had only hit 100 degrees three times. It reached that mark in three consecutive days in June!"
Global Warming Cauldron Boils Over in the Northwest in One of the Most Intense Heat Waves on Record Worldwide
More from Inside Climate News: "The intensity of the heat wave, measured by how far temperatures are spiking above normal, is among the greatest ever measured globally. The extremes are on par with a 2003 European heat wave that killed about 70,000 people, and a 2013 heat wave in Australia, when meteorologists added new shades of dark purple to their maps to show unprecedented temperatures. And the more extreme the temperature records, climate scientists said, the more obvious the fingerprint of global warming will be on the heat wave. But even among climate scientists, the biggest concern was the immediate impacts of the record shattering temperatures."
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Thanks for checking in and have a great day! Don't forget to follow me on Twitter (@dkayserwx) and like me on Facebook (Meteorologist D.J. Kayser).
- D.J. Kayser
