It is no secret that the stock market has been rocky since the start of the year. Tech giants such as Apple, Microsoft, Google and Amazon have been no help at all. Their shares have all had double-digit percentage declines.
Dismal as the stock market may be, the situation looks even worse if you are worried about the future of the planet. The fact is that only one broad stock sector has provided consistent returns over the last year: old-fashioned fossil fuel, and the companies that extract, refine, sell and service it.
In fact, when I looked at a performance table of the top companies in the S&P 500 for 2022, I found that 19 of the top 20 spots belonged to companies connected, in one way or another, with fossil fuel. The best performer was Occidental Petroleum, with a gain of 142%.
This isn't just a U.S. phenomenon. Saudi Aramco, the national oil company of Saudi Arabia, is vying with Apple for the distinction of being the world's most valuable publicly traded company. For much of the last year, the rising price of oil has outpaced the value of businesses based on silicon chips.
If you are paying attention to science, this is awkward in the extreme. Yet for short-term investors, energy is looking better than ever.
Russia's assault on Ukraine and the mounting Western sanctions are improving prospects for fossil fuel, Bank of America noted in a report to clients on June 2.
"Our commodity strategists expect that a sharp contraction in Russian oil exports could trigger a full-blown 1980s-style oil crisis," with energy prices rising much higher, the report said. "Not owning energy is becoming more costly," it said.
This poses a classic dilemma for investors who want to follow the guidance of much academic research and be fully diversified. I try to do this by putting my money into low-cost index funds that track the entire stock and bond markets. These funds are marvelous in many ways. They reduce the risks of specific stock selection — owning the wrong stock at the wrong time — and of emphasizing the wrong sectors at inopportune moments.