Chilly, Sunny Monday - Warming Back Up Later This Week

While central Minnesota picked up an inch or two of snow Friday Night, precipitation stayed as rain throughout the entire system in the metro. That led to almost half an inch of rainfall at MSP.

For the month, that brings MSP almost up to average in the liquid precipitation department - just 0.01" off the pace of where we should be by December 16th. Meanwhile, it's been the seventh warmest December to date on record with an average temperature that has been 9.2F above average. It's also one of the least snowiest (38th least snowiest, to be exact) on record with only 1.3" falling... and, of course, all of that has melted away.

We're tracking a strong cold front which is bringing a burst of snow with it as we went through Sunday into Sunday Night. Here's a look at the overall expected snow totals through Monday morning. In the metro, it'll be enough to coat the ground and make surfaces slick for the morning commute on Monday. In parts of northern Minnesota, tallies could top an inch.

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While an early morning flurry can't be ruled out, most of the day Monday will feature a lot of blue skies and sunshine. Unfortunately, it's the misleading type of sunshine as highs will only climb to the mid-20s during the afternoon. With strong northwest winds gusting to 35 mph, it'll feel more like the single digits through the morning and the teens in the afternoon.

After a few morning flurries across southeastern Minnesota, the state will be under a lot of sunshine to begin the work week. It'll be a chilly one, though, with highs in the teens and 20s - much, much closer to average than we have recently been!

The strongest winds across eastern Minnesota (gusting up to 40 mph in spots) will be in the morning hours, with winds slowly decreasing into the afternoon and evening hours. It will certainly be chilly for kids standing at the bus stop!

Tuesday: We start to see warming temperatures once again as highs reach the mid/upper 30s on the back of southerly winds up to 15 mph. Tuesday will feature mainly cloudy skies, with clearing working in after sunset.

Wednesday: Highs climb back into the low 40s under a mix of sun and clouds. Winds will decrease, hovering between 5-10 mph out of the southeast.

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Besides our temperature dip for Monday, highs will be in the 30s and 40s through at least Christmas here in the metro. I generally see this warmth continue through at least the end of the year in the models. While a mostly quiet weather pattern continues this upcoming week, a few rain showers are possible across southeastern Minnesota (Twin Cities southward) Thursday Night and Friday.

Note: While you may hear talk of a "potential" storm near Christmas, please remember that that's just about all it is right now - talk. It is way too early to determine anything, and numerous model runs that have shown this system impacting us have gone back and forth between rain and snow... while other models keep the system entirely to our south with minimal/no impact to Minnesota. Don't get too nervous/anxious about it... we'll know more as we head through next week whether there will be ANY impacts to your holiday travel plans.

Anyone Dreaming Of Christmas Puddles?
By Paul Douglas

I miss the snow. Especially when I'm napping and dreaming of a white Christmas. What I don't miss is ice. After falling on an icy driveway and breaking an ankle a few years ago I have new respect for threats posed by ice. On a skating rink or lake I have no problem with ice. Sidewalks and bridge overpasses? A different story. I'm enjoying this vacation from slipping and sliding.

Lake ice is a good barometer of winter temperatures. I'm still staring out at open water on the lake behind my house, and probably will be for the next few weeks.

December is running 9.2F warmer than average and I see temperatures 20-30F above normal into Christmas Day, when ECMWF (European model) predicts a high of 54F in the Twin Cities. Yikes. Santa may show up in shorts and a red convertible.

Some of us are waking up to a dusting. Take a photo, because I see highs above 40F later this week and a soaking rain on Christmas Day.

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Paul's Extended Twin Cities Forecast

MONDAY: Sunny. Feels like 8-15F. Wake up 19. High 26. Chance of precipitation 0%. Wind NW 10-20 mph.

TUESDAY: Sunny and breezy. Not as cold. Wake up 22. High 39. Chance of precipitation 0%. Wind S 10-20 mph.

WEDNESDAY: Plenty of sun, relatively mild. Wake up 24. High 42. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind E 7-12 mph.

FRIDAY: More clouds, passing shower. Wake up 34. High 42. Chance of precipitation 40%. Wind SE 8-12 mph.

SATURDAY: Clouds linger, few sprinkles. Wake up 36. High 43. Chance of precipitation 30%. Wind SE 10-15 mph.

SUNDAY: Windy with rain PM hours. Wake up 38. High 47. Chance of precipitation 80%. Wind SE 10-20 mph.

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Minneapolis Weather Almanac And Sun Data
December 18th

*Day With The Least Amount Of Sunlight: December 21st (8 hours, 46 minutes, 10 seconds)
*When Is The Latest Sunrise? December 30th-January 5th (7:51 AM)
*When Are Sunsets At/After 5 PM? January 18th (5:01 PM)
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This Day in Weather History
December 18th

1923: Southern Minnesota experiences a 'heat wave'. Temperatures rose into the 60s at New Ulm and St. Peter.

1917: Milaca has its fifty-ninth consecutive day with no precipitation.

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The nor'easter impacting the East Coast will continue to produce heavy rain on Monday before another system moves in, also producing rain and snow for the Northeast. In some areas along the East Coast, rainfall tallies could top 4-5". Heavy rain will also be expected in the western United States with a system during the beginning of the week, with areas of Oregon and northern California expected to receive 3-5".

The heaviest snow through Tuesday will fall in parts of the Appalachians and downwind of the Great Lakes behind that early week frontal boundary moving through the region. In these areas, at least several inches of snow is expected.

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Trees are in trouble

More from UC Santa Barbara: "This holiday season brings surprising news about your Christmas tree. Scientists just discovered that globally, trees growing in wetter regions are more sensitive to drought. That means if your tree hails from a more humid clime, it's likely been spoiled for generations. Scientists have long debated whether arid conditions make trees more or less resilient to drought. It seems intuitive that trees living at their biological limits will be most vulnerable to climate change, since even just a little extra stress could tip them past the brink. On the other hand, these populations have adapted to a harsher setting, so they might be more capable of withstanding a drought. According to a new study in the journal Science by researchers at UC Santa Barbara and UC Davis, greater water availability could "spoil" trees by reducing their adaptations to drought."

More from UC San Diego: "In devasting cases dotting the globe in recent years, climate warming has led to an increase in the number and severity of destructive wildfires. Climate change projections indicate that environmental and economic damage from wildfires will spread and escalate in the years ahead. While studies have analyzed impacts on land, new research from the University of California San Diego and other institutions indicates that aquatic ecosystems are also undergoing rapid changes as a result of wildfires. Led by School of Biological Sciences Professor Jonathan Shurin's laboratory, the researchers compared how aquatic systems change with the input of burnt plant matter, including effects on food webs."

Extreme weather cost $80 billion this year. The true price is far higher.

More from Grist: "While Walker waits, the destruction of Rolling Fork has vanished beneath headlines about wildfires, floods, and heat waves elsewhere. Millions of people have come to feel his pain: A November poll found that three-quarters of Americans experienced some kind of extreme weather in 2023. By some metrics, this year was among the worst for climate disasters. The U.S. saw more weather events that caused at least a billion dollars in damage than at any other time on record. The emergence of an El Niño weather pattern pushed global temperatures higher than ever before in recorded history and caused a spate of deadly heat waves as well as catastrophic floods. By other metrics, it was no more than an average year for a world that has warmed by more than 1 degree Celsius."

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- D.J. Kayser