For most of the 20th century, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan and Wisconsin formed much of the core of America's once-formidable manufacturing heartland. But since the 1970s, powerful forces have been hammering away at this region. Fully replacing the massive numbers of lost jobs with work offering comparable pay and benefits has proved to be an impossible dream.
"It's not that easy to bring them back," said Bob Harper, president of United Steelworkers Local 1123, which represents 2,000 workers at the Timken steel and bearings plants in Canton, Ohio. "We know that."
But now, Donald Trump has promised to reinvigorate the Rust Belt. He campaigned hard on populist themes, against trade agreements and for jolting the status quo in Washington. From Scranton to Saginaw, the strategy worked. Trump won the election by flipping Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan and Wisconsin to red from blue.
The role these states played in the election resonated with us. Fourteen years ago, our book, "Manufacturing Works," tracked industrial job and payroll trends in each of the nation's 3,142 counties. We discovered jarring declines in the Rust Belt and elsewhere, but we also identified companies and communities that found ways to cope, improve and even shine.
There was reason for optimism. Our book appeared in the wake of the dot.com crash. A buzz was in the air "getting back to basics," meaning manufacturing. Then came the financial crisis, two months before the 2008 presidential election. As the country quickly sank into a deep recession, the Rust Belt absorbed yet more pain. Many voters there turned to a fresh face that November, Barack Obama.
Obama carried all four states in 2008 and again in 2012. Many assumed Hillary Clinton would do it again. But by 2014, the long decline in manufacturing jobs had taken yet another dive, down 16 percent from 2007 in Ohio, off 15 percent in Pennsylvania, shaky elsewhere. Generally, the frustrations of many in these states had been brushed aside for years by distant journalists, pundits and politicians.
Ohio's Stark County, where Canton is located, roughly split between Obama and Mitt Romney in 2012, but in 2016 Trump rolled up a 56-39 percent margin.
In Pennsylvania, Trump flipped Erie County, where General Electric cut 1,500 well-paying union jobs this year — a third of the 4,500 at its locomotive factory there. Instead, GE is building up production in Texas.