Confronting two rows of empty chairs less than 10 minutes before the scheduled start of his south Minneapolis caucus, Independence Party organizer Dan Justesen admitted it was hard to gauge just who would show up.

But, as if on cue, he heartily welcomed a thin but steady stream of young, middle-aged and older voters eager to have their voices heard.

Many of the 15 people who cast their ballots in the straw poll were hoping New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg will join the race.

"He would be a formidable candidate," said Kurt Anderson of Minneapolis. "He's not afraid to mix it up."

According to early caucus results across the state, many IP voters and other independents also want Bloomberg to run, said Craig Swaggert, chairman of the Minnesota Independence Party.

"I think [Tuesday's] outcome will determine whether he jumps in," Swaggert said after attending an IP caucus of about 25 people in Duluth. "We'll wait and see what happens."

If Bloomberg stays out, Swaggert said, IP voters are likely to gravitate towards Hillary Rodham Clinton, Barack Obama or John McCain.

Independents propelled Democrat Obama to victory in the Iowa caucuses last month and helped salvage Republican McCain's once-struggling campaign in New Hampshire six days later.

At Tuesday's caucus in south Minneapolis, independent Ginny Karlsson of Minneapolis said she wrote in Obama as her choice because "none of my previous candidates have won. This time I'm hoping to pick a winner."

Bloomberg, however, continues to pose the biggest question for IP voters, Anderson said:

"Will he or won't he?"

Terry Collins • 612-673-1790