Look around Europe and one leader stands above all the rest: German Chancellor Angela Merkel. In France, President François Hollande has given up the pretense that his country leads the continent. British Prime Minister David Cameron, triumphantly re-elected, is turning Britain into little England. Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi is preoccupied with his country's comatose economy.
By contrast, in her 10 years in office, Merkel has grown taller with every upheaval. In the debt crisis, she began as a ditherer but in the end held the eurozone together; over Ukraine, she corralled Europeans into imposing sanctions on Russia (its president, Vladimir Putin, thinks she is the only European leader worth talking to), and over migration, she has boldly upheld European values, almost alone in her commitment to welcoming refugees.
It has become fashionable to see this as a progression from prudence and predominance to rashness and calamity. Critics assert that, with her welcoming attitude to asylum-seekers, Merkel has caused a flood that will both wreck Europe and, long before, bring about her own political demise. Both arguments are wrong, as well as profoundly unfair. Merkel is more formidable than many assume. And that is just as well: Given the European Union's many challenges, she is more than ever the indispensable European.
Merkel's predominance in part reflects the importance of Germany — the E.U.'s largest economy and mightiest exporter, with sound public finances and historically low unemployment. She is also the longest-serving leader in the E.U.
Her personal qualities count for much, too. She has defended Germany's interests without losing sight of Europe's; she has risked German money to save the euro, while keeping skeptical Germans onside, and she has earned the respect of her fellow leaders even after bruising fights with them. Most impressively (and alone among center-right leaders in Europe), she has done this without pandering to anti-E.U. and anti-immigrant populists. For all the E.U.'s flaws, she does not treat it as a punching bag, but rather as a pillar of peace and prosperity.
Merkel is far from perfect. She is not given to great oratory or grand visions. She can be both a political chameleon who adopts left-wing policies to occupy the center ground, and a scorpion who quietly eliminates potential rivals. Her natural caution has given rise to a German neologism, merkeln ("to Merkel," or put off big decisions). Her timidity in handling the euro's woes deepened the crisis unnecessarily; she has spurned the risk-sharing that the euro area needs to thrive.
Ironically, then, it is boldness, not timidity, that has brought Merkel the greatest challenge of her time in office. Her staunch refusal to place an upper limit on the number of refugees that Germany can absorb has caused growing consternation at home and criticism abroad. As German municipalities protest, her political allies are denouncing her and eastern European countries are accusing her of "moral imperialism." With Willkommenskultur — a welcome culture — fading, there is even talk of her losing power.
The doubts are overblown. Critics are wrong to assume that Merkel is about to be toppled. Grumbling aside, she remains the dominant figure of her Christian Democratic Union (CDU). A recent poll found that 82 percent of CDU members approve of her leadership and that 81 percent want her to run for a fourth term as chancellor at the election due in 2017. The electoral math favors another CDU-led government. Merkel is unlikely to go unless she chooses to.