November 2023 global temperature shatters the previous record by over 0.3°C according to the gold standard reanalysis - ERA5. This is the first year with a November average temperature over 14°C.

We've had minimal snowfall across the region this season and thanks to warmer than average temperatures at points during November and into the early part of December, any snow that we've had has pretty much melted. At this time last year, there was 5" of snow on the ground in the Twin Cities.

It has been a pretty slow start to the snow season across the Midwest. Could this be a sign of El Nino? Perhaps. The storm track in an El Nino season is typically draped across the Southern US, while milder temperatures reside across the Midwest, both of which have been observed over the last several weeks. There are a lot of negative seasonal snow numbers across the region with the biggest deficits showing up in Duluth, MN (15th least snowy start to any season on record) and also in Marquette, which is nearly -26" below average (5th least snowy start to any season on record).

Our average snowfall in the Twin Cities through the months of October and November is typically around 6" to 7". Note that the Twin Cities has only had 3.2" so far this season (since July 1st), which is nearly -6" below average. Duluth has only had 3.0" of snow this season, which is nearly -16" below average and the 15th least snowy start to any season on record.

The 30-year average from 1993 to 2022 suggests that we typically see around 5.5" of snow during the month of November. The snowiest month tends to be in December with more than a foot falling. The 2nd snowiest month tends to be January with nearly 11" falling in the metro.

Here's the weather outlook through next Monday, which shows a larger storm system developing just south of us through the weekend. Areas of snow will be possible as close to us as Iowa and Wisconsin. Another clipper looks to develop early next week with a chance of light snow across the region.

Heavy rains during the month of September have helped the drought situation quite a bit across the state. With that being said, nearly 18% of the state is still in a severe drought, which has improved from 39% nearly 3 months ago.

Temperatures in the Twin Cities will start around 30F in the morning and will warm into the mid/upper 30s by the afternoon under mostly cloudy skies. Skies will be mostly cloudy with northwesterly winds around 10mph to 15mph.

The weather outlook for Tuesday will warm into the 30s across the much of the state, which will be nearly +5F to +10F above average for this time of the year. Note the 40s across the far western part of the Dakotas, this is some of the warmth that will build into Minnesota as we get into the 2nd half of the week.

The 5 day temperature outlook for Minneapolis will be warmer than average with readings warming into the mid/upper 30s and 40s through the rest of the week. Temperatures could warm to near 50F by Thursday, which will be nearly +15F to +20F above average for early December.

The extended weather outlook for Minneapolis through the first full week of December looks very mild with temperatures warming into the 30s and 40s. Incredibly, highs could approach 50F by Thursday. Note that in 139 years of record keeping, the MSP Airport has only hit 50F or warmer in the month of December 84 times. This too is a very rare occurrence, happening less than 2% of December days. After a string of 40s through Friday, temps fall back into the 30s through the weekend and early next week, which will still be above average by nearly +5F.

According to NOAA's National Blend of Models, the extended forecast looks very warm through the first part of December. With a lack of snow on the ground, the sun's energy will go into warming the atmosphere, which will be quite efficient this week. With a warmer than average temperature spell moving in, temperatures could warm into the 40s and possibly close to 50F through the week. Enjoy! We're still waiting for the other boot to drop, which it will at some point. Next week doesn't look quite as warm, but highs will still be running above average for this time of the year.

According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14 day temperature outlook shows warmer than average temperatures continuing across much of the nation and especially in the Midwest.

The 8 to 14 Day Precipitation Outlook shows more active weather across the Western US and Central US. Drier Weather will settled in from the Southwest to the Midwest and across the Eastern US from the 12-18.

Newsflash: December is, in theory, on paper, the second snowiest month of the year in the Twin Cities and most of Minnesota. An average of 11.5"of snow falls at MSP during December. January is still the snowiest month with 12.1".

Which is vaguely interesting but not very relevant during an El Nino winter, when most of the storms detour south and east of home. Models increasingly spin up a major snowstorm for Sunday and Monday, with a foot of snow predicted from the Quad Cities to Madison and Milwaukee. So close, and yet so far away. I don't see any (significant) snowfall into next week, when it will be cold enough for snow (highs in the 30s) but moisture will be lacking.

The sun should peek out today and a significant warming trend arrives midweek with more 40s, even an outside shot at 50F close to home Thursday. It should be mild enough for rain showers Friday as cooler air returns.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny and cool. Winds: NW 10-15. High 38.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clearing skies & chilly. Winds: NW 5. Low: 26.

WEDNESDAY: Mix of clouds and sunshine. quiet. Winds: SW 10-20. High 45.

THURSDAY: What December? Mild sunshine. Winds: SE 8-13. Wake-up: 31. High 50.

FRIDAY: Few rain showers possible, gusty. Winds: W 15-30. Wake-up: 38. High 42.

SUNDAY: Blue sky, colder wind kicks in. Winds: NW 15-25. Wake-up: 24. High 34.

MONDAY: A few flurries, seasonably cool. Winds: NW 15-25. Wake-up: 23. High: 35.

December 5th

1886: Minneapolis hits a record-setting 15 degrees below zero.

December 4th

Average Low: 19F (Record: -14F set in 1873)

Record Rainfall: 0.81" set in 1909

Record Snowfall: 7.0" set in 1909

December 5th

Sunrise: 7:34am

Hours of Daylight: ~8 hours & 57 minutes

Daylight LOST since yesterday: 1 Minutes & 17 Seconds

Daylight LOST since Summer Solstice (June 21st): ~ 6 Hour & 50 Minutes

1.0 Day After Last Quarter Moon

The weather outlook on Tuesday will be warmer than average across the Western half of the nation with temps running nearly +10F to +20F above average. Areas of heavy precipitation will be found across the Pacific Northwest.

The National Weather outlook through Wednesday will be quite unsettled across the Pacific Northwest with heavy rain and a little mountain snow. Some spots could see 5" to 10" of rain through midweek. Meanwhile, a clipper system will move through the Ohio Valley with a little light rain/snow.

The extended precipitation outlook shows heavier precipitation across the Eastern US. The heaviest precipitation will be found in the Northwestern US with several inches of rain and flooding in the coastal communities with high-elevation snow possible.

According to the ECMWF weather model, heavy snows are in the forecast across the high elevations in the Western US. There could be a band of snow across the Central US into the Great Lakes.

"A new report by a major medical journal says that the Earth's rising temperatures may lead to a 370% increase in heat-related deaths every year, prompting one program director to suggest that health professionals should be more involved in climate discussions. What happened? As reported by Grist, the Lancet released a study on Nov. 14 warning that our planet's changing temperatures are "threatening the very foundations of human health." Notably, annual heat-related deaths jumped 85% between 2013 and 2022 when comparing them to the statistics from 1991 to 2000, reported Grist. The heat, combined with a significant increase in drought-affected lands, reportedly "put 127 million people at risk of moderate or severe food insecurity," per Grist."

See more from The Cooldown HERE:

See more from Forbes HERE:

"Did the increase in extreme weather events across the globe in 2023 spike your eco-anxiety? If not, a new artificial intelligence (AI) tool that can predict how climate change could impact your house will. Revealed at COP28, the AI tool, developed by NASA and IBM, will help us monitor Earth from space – measuring environmental changes that have already happened while also making more accurate predictions about the future. While not designed specifically to scare you, the system could help you escape deadly weather events in future. It's a bit like Google Earth – except that you can toggle different algorithms to reveal overlays such as tree cover, carbon emissions, and flooding and wildfire risk. Plus, the developers are making it available to everyone when it becomes available in 2024. This includes nations, corporations, charities – and you."

See more from Science Focus HERE: