4th of July Outlook
Monday morning could be quite noisy with scattered showers and storms through the first half of the day, some of which could be strong to severe with heavy rainfall. The good news is that things should clear out a bit as we head through the day. There could be a few isolated thunderstorms later in the afternoon/evening, but at this point it should be fairly isolated.
Severe Threat 4th of July Monday
According to NOAA's SPC, there is a risk of strong to severe thunderstorms in the morning and again later in the day. Gusty winds and hail with be the primary threat along with heavy rainfall. There could be another round of isolated strong to severe storms later in the day, especially across southeastern MN.
4th of July Outlook
The weather outlook for the 4th of July Monday looks unsettled across the state. Scattered showers and storms will be possible, some of which could be strong to severe early in the day with locally heavy rainfall. Highs will warm into the 70s and 80s across much of the state with some 90s possible in the Southwest corner. The high temp in the Twin Cities will warm into the upper 80s, which will be nearly +5F above average.
Unsettled 4th of July Monday
Here's the weather outlook from 12AM to 7PM Monday, which shows a strong line of thunderstorms moving through the Upper Midwest through the first half of the day. there could be a few more storms later in the afternoon/evening that could be a little on the stronger side as well.
Precipitation Potential Through Tuesday
Here's the extended rainfall potential through Tuesday. Several round of thunderstorms may be possible with locally heavy pockets of rain here and there across the region. Some locations could see up to an inch of rain or more through the 4th of July.
Precipitation Departure From Average Since Jan. 1st
Here's the precipitation departure from average so far this year. Note the Twin Cities is more than -2.25" below average so far this year, but just an hour north, St. Cloud is nearly +6.00" above average, which is good enough for the 8th wettest start to any year on record there.
Minnesota Drought Update
Here's the latest drought update across Minnesota. Thanks to a dry June across much of southern Minnesota, including the Twin Cities, abnormally dry conditions have popped up. There is even a sliver of moderate drought in extreme southern MN.
Meteograms for Minneapolis
The hourly temps for Minneapolis on Monday shows temperatures starting in the low/mid 70s and warming to the mid 80s by the afternoon. Showers and storms will be likely in the morning, some of which could be strong to severe with locally heavy rainfall. Things should settled down in the afternoon, but a few isolated strong to severe storms will be possible later in the day. Southerly winds could be a bit breezy with gusts approaching 20mph.