Why this crisis is happening now
An Al-Qaida breakaway group has seized a large section of northern Iraq after taking much of northeastern Syria with an eye toward establishing an Islamic state straddling the two countries. Some patterns and explanations are emerging:
Q: Why now ?
A: The group, the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant, is taking advantage of two trends: growing discontent among Iraq’s minority Sunnis toward Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki’s Shiite-led government, which they accuse of discrimination; and the increasingly sectarian dimension of the Syrian civil war, as mostly Sunni rebels fight to oust a regime dominated by members of a Shiite sect. Taking advantage of the breakdown of state authority, militant fighters easily cross the border. The Iraqi territory recently seized by militants is populated overwhelmingly by Sunnis, many of whom, at least for now, may see Al-Maliki as more of a threat than the Islamic State. Signs are also emerging that the Islamic State is backed in its campaign by former military officers and other members of ousted dictator Saddam Hussein’s regime.
Q: Will Iraq be a divided state?
A: The developments have renewed the possibility, discussed during the war a decade ago, that Iraq be divided into three regions or nations: the mostly Shiite section, made up of Baghdad and much of the south and east bordering Iran; a Sunni area, comprised of western Iraq and parts of the north; and a Kurdish zone, also in the north and including the cities of Irbil and Kirkuk, which Saddam tried to populate with Arabs.
Q: What happened to the Iraqi security forces and why won’t they fight?
A: Corruption and sectarianism are widespread problems in the security forces, with little sense of professionalism or loyalty to the government. Sunni soldiers tend to serve in Sunni areas such as Mosul and Anbar, where many of them are demoralized by the idea of fighting against members of their own Muslim sect. Police forces are usually drawn from local populations so are particularly vulnerable to local pressures like intimidation. In at least one case, the Islamic militants beheaded an officer and then distributed a video of the attack.
Q: How have the rebels been able to move so quickly?
A: The Islamic State commands 7,000 to 10,000 fighters, U.S. intelligence officials said. The group’s military strategy is still somewhat of a mystery, but the extremists have crafted their tactics and message to meet local considerations. In Syria, they are quite open about their ideology and goals, imposing their strict brand of Islamic law, banning music and executing people in the main square of the city of Raqqa, which they control. In Iraq, they focus on portraying themselves as the protectors of the Sunni community from al-Maliki’s government and have at least so far overlooked some practices they consider forbidden.
Q: What role are the Kurds playing?
A: Kurdish fighters from the ethnic group’s autonomous enclave in the north are showing signs of taking a greater role in fighting back against the Islamic State. Their role is a potential point of friction because both Sunni and Shiite Arabs are wary over Kurdish claims on territory outside their enclave.