Hyperbole is fun.
It is. It’s also easy. Plus, it sounds so darn authoritative. No wonder it’s so often our go to form of entertainment.
Our latest example (for baseball, because this is a baseball blog) was the deal the Tigers just signed with Prince Fielder. The Tigers suddenly became favorites to win the World Series. Which is interesting, because about a week earlier, even their candidacy for the AL Central crown was in doubt because their second best hitter, Victor Martinez, was going to miss the year after a knee injury.
Is the hyperbole correct? Is Fielder such an upgrade over Martinez that the Tigers, who won 95 games last year (but only had the run differential of an 89-win team), are a lock for the AL Central?
Let’s just do a little sabrmetric back-of-the-napkin figuring on where this leaves the Tigers. It may not be as fun as hyperbole – or maybe it will be. You decide.
Some of the hyperbole is dead on. Fielder is every bit that good. The contract is being called ridiculous by a ton of baseball analysts, but if you’re going to give a ridiculous contract to someone, Fielder is a pretty good choice. We like to make fun of his size, but there are 130 runs hidden in that ample waist and his size hasn’t stopped him from playing at least 157 games per year every year since 2006.
A really nice metric for measuring a hitter’s offensive impact is Bill James’ Runs Created (RC). James demonstrated that by looking at the number of walks, hits, doubles, triples, homeruns and at-bats a team had, he could give a pretty good estimate of how many runs they scored that year. Then he used that same formula for players.
(It’s a fun metric, and if you have an extra five minutes to dive into details, I did a short tutorial on it here.)
Using RC (as pulled from ESPN.com
), Fielder has created 130, 114 and 141 runs for the Brewers each of the last three years. Martinez, on the other hand, is no slouch, but has generated 91, 81 and 105. That’s about 35 runs less per season than Fielder.
Fielder also hasn’t been a terrible first baseman. He’s below average, but has cost his team only about five run per season the last few years. The bigger concern for the Tigers is the talk about Miguel Cabrera moving back to third base. He wasn’t a terrible third baseman with the Marlins, but that was back in 2007. It’s not too crazy to suggest he would be one of the worst third basemen in baseball if he were to play there full time.
The worst third basemen in baseball cost their teams about 15-20 runs last year. Which would still mean that the Tigers are coming out ahead 15-20 runs. That’s about two wins.
But is that really going to happen? The Tigers might not WANT to put Cabrera or Fielder in the DH spot regularly, and those players may not want to play there either. But nobody is going to want to watch Cabrera embarrass (or hurt) himself either. So those other 15-20 runs are in play, too. That could be another two wins.
The hyperbole probably isn’t accurate. Fielder certainly improves the Tigers above and beyond what Martinez could have provided, adding 2-4 wins. That certainly strengthens their hand, but it doesn’t launch them into a world-class level, and they’re still within reach of whichever other AL Central team puts things together this year.
In Gleeman and the Geek's "Episode 25: AL Central & Cleavage," we talked at length about the other teams in the AL Central, including more talk about Fielder's impact, flipping Kevin Slowey, Morneau's optimism, panicking about closers and an unexpected drunk woman's decision to show us her "Twins." You can listen to the podcasts
or subscribe to the the rss feed
or learn more about the podcast on iTunes
(where you can also subscribe and leave reviews).
It's a GREAT weekend to be a Twins fan. Besides Twinsfest, give a little though to stopping by these events:
- Episode 26 will likely be taped on Saturday night when TwinsCentric meets up with Twins bloggers and readers at the Old Chicago in Roseville around 7:30. We all hope to see you there.
- On Friday night, I'll be going to the 4th annual LAST Hot Stove Banquet and Charity Auction. It's not the fourth annual - it's the fourth annual LAST, because this has been going on for decades now and they keep trying to stop doing it. It ain't fancy. It is fun. You can find more about it here.
Finally, don't forget that when you're at Twinsfest and speaking with minor leaguers at those autograph tables, you might want to have some idea who they are. The easiest way? Order the electronic copy of Seth's 2012 Minnesota Twins Prospect Handbook. You'll be completely prepared for the weekend.