In 2001, the Department of Natural Resources developed a plan to bring ducks back to Minnesota -- an idea the agency subsequently refined into a 50-year vision intended to save the state's cherished waterfowl hunting heritage.
But nine years later, at the end of a dismal 2009 Minnesota duck hunting season, the state appears to be stuck in reverse.
Plan or no plan, the state's ducks and duck hunting might be more threatened than ever.
Consider:
• A main DNR goal was to have Minnesota hunters shoot 16 percent of the Mississippi Flyway duck harvest each fall -- a percentage hunters regularly attained in the past. But hunters have hit that mark only once since 1994, and the percentage has declined to less than 9 percent the past two years.
• A state breeding duck population of 1 million birds has been the goal, but in recent years it has been half that. Last year's figure -- 507,000 -- was the third lowest since 1983.
• Another goal -- 140,000 duck hunters by 2056 -- seems unlikely. The state had an estimated 109,000 duck hunters when the first duck plan was written in 2001. Since then, the numbers have fallen by 28,000 to about 81,000 in 2008. Officials believe that number likely fell again in 2009. Over the past decade, the number of duck hunters has dropped by about 40,000.
• Finally, officials hoped to improve hunter satisfaction. But recent surveys show that, too, has declined.
The DNR is making ducks the focus of its annual "roundtable" meetings with stakeholders this week in Brooklyn Center. About 350 people are expected at the invitation-only event.
"We want to take a fresh look at those previous plans and programs," said Dave Schad, DNR fish and wildlife section chief.
The trends are discouraging and frustrating, he said, and evidence of how difficult it is to make wide-ranging changes to the landscape to improve duck habitat.
"We really have a crisis out there," he said.
But he said the DNR and others won't give up, that habitat improvements are being made and that money from the Clean Water, Land and Legacy Amendment passed in 2008 should provide a boost to waterfowl habitat. The DNR might develop shorter-term goals for waterfowl improvements, Schad said.
Virtually everyone agrees habitat is key. The state has seen most of its farmland wetlands drained, and those that remain often are flooded with too much water and degraded, often the result of rough fish. And grasslands -- essential for nesting birds -- have disappeared. Millions of dollars have been spent in recent years to restore wetland and grassland habitat. But despite support from hunters, State Capitol duck rallies, and the efforts of conservation groups, other factors make that an uphill struggle.
"We are going backwards with habitat," said Ray Norrgard, DNR wetland wildlife program consultant.
The duck recovery plan said 2 million acres of wetlands and grasslands would have to be restored over 50 years -- about 40,000 acres yearly.
"We actually did that in 2006 and 2007," Norrgard said. Federal and state land conservation programs, an acceleration of land acquisition for the state's wildlife management area program and increased efforts at improving the states shallow lakes accounted for those acres. But the state recently lost more than 80,000 acres of grasslands in the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) -- offsetting those gains.
Said Dennis Simon, DNR wildlife management section chief: "We don't control most of the trends and influences of migratory waterfowl populations. We don't have control over the accelerating drainage that is occurring in North and South Dakota or what happens in Canada." Or, he said, the flight patterns of waterfowl, which seem to be bypassing Minnesota during their migration.
So is the situation hopeless? Jon Schneider is among those who think not.
"We're making significant progress with shallow lake enhancements," said Schneider, manager of Minnesota conservation programs for Ducks Unlimited.
The DNR's shallow lakes program and DU's living lakes initiative allow officials to regulate water levels on shallow lakes. Drawing down water levels reduces invasive fish, helps boost water quality and encourages vegetation to grow.
The DNR has designated 44 lakes as "wildlife lakes" where water levels can be manipulated, and five of those have been added in the past couple of years, Schneider said. But given the widespread landscape changes, progress is incremental.
"For everyone who wonders why there are no ducks, drive around rural western Minnesota -- chances are you'll be looking at plowed fields," Schneider said. "These problems are decades in the making."
Still, he's hopeful.
"I have a 12-year-old who loves to hunt, I have to be hopeful. We have to do what we can to make the world a better place for the next generation. Giving up is not an option."
