NFL Insider: Playoffs likely to expand in 2015

The worst sentence in NFL reporting is, "If the season ended today … ." But if the season ended today, the defending champion Seahawks would open the playoffs in Atlanta.

Seattle is 8-4 and looks more like the team that destroyed Peyton Manning and his record-setting offense in the Super Bowl. Atlanta is 4-7 and looks more like a team that might fire coach Mike Smith for going 0-7 outside of the NFC South.

The possibility of inviting Atlanta, New Orleans (4-7), Carolina (3-7-1) or, heck, even Tampa Bay (2-9) to the postseason conjures up visions of NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell heading for the nearest Dairy Queen to hand out plastic trophies to all 1,696 of his players while their parents clap and take photos.

Strangely, the possibility of a five-win NFC South champion won't affect Goodell's dogged determination to expand the playoffs in 2015. If that were the case, the Commish wouldn't have begun floating playoff expansion as a possibility not long after Seattle won the NFC West with a 7-9 record.

"I do believe [playoff expansion] will be approved for the 2015 season," Goodell said in March. "I think we want to see one more year of, will it impact the regular season in a positive way from a competitive standpoint? Will it create more excitement, more races toward the end of who's going to qualify for the playoffs?"

The widespread belief is the NFL will expand to a 14-team playoff field by adding a seventh seed in each conference next year. And if the season ended today, Goodell would be smiling because the seventh seeds right now are Baltimore (7-4) in the AFC and Dallas (8-4) in the NFC.

Worse yet for those who oppose playoff expansion is the fact that the current eighth, ninth and 10th seeds in the AFC are Pittsburgh (7-4), Cleveland (7-4) and a 6-5 Miami team that beat the current No. 1 seed Patriots by 13 points.

The current eighth seed in the NFC is San Francisco (7-5), but things drop off considerably from there with Chicago (5-7) as the ninth seed.

"I don't think we'd support [playoff expansion] if we didn't think the two teams that we're adding didn't have a chance to win the Super Bowl," Goodell said last spring. "And we do."

Heck, if that was the criteria for the two extra playoff teams, the regular season would have no weight whatsoever. The NFC's current 12th seed, St. Louis, would suffice. The Rams are 4-7 but they've beaten Seattle, Denver and San Francisco.

There are hurdles left to clear before playoff expansion is approved. Mainly, those pesky players will want more money for more games and shorter careers.

But it's coming because there's too much money to be made for it not to happen. Under the presumptive format, wild-card weekend would grow by two games with the Nos. 2-7 seeds in each conference playing six games. That's a 33.3 percent hike in moneymaking potential, not to mention the possibility of spreading wild-card weekend from Friday to Monday.

Perhaps someday the NFL will address a seeding process that would make Atlanta a No. 4 and Seattle a No. 5. But the higher priority after this season will be introducing the new concept of No. 7 playoff seeds to fans, players and TV partners.

Of course, once that happens, the countdown to the introduction of No. 8 playoff seeds will begin.

NFL chatter

Fred Cox played 210 games over 15 seasons and had 133 touchbacks. Blair Walsh has played 43 games over two-plus seasons and has 131 touchbacks.

Yeah, times have changed for NFL kickoffs.

With three more touchbacks, Walsh will break Cox's team record. And considering Walsh is averaging 4.6 touchbacks a game this season, the record could fall as early as Sunday's game against Carolina at TCF Bank Stadium.

It's a lightly regarded record for many, but one that Vikings coach Mike Zimmer weighs heavily when special teams coordinator Mike Priefer will ask him during a game if he wants Walsh to boom one or pop one up to try to pin the other team inside the 20.

"I'll say, 'Kick it out, don't let this guy return it,' " Zimmer said "I just think the percentages are, if you kick it out of there and they've got to go 80 yards, then I'm good with that."

Having joined the league in 2012, Walsh has benefited from the 2011 rule that moved kickoffs from the 30-yard line to the 35.

But there's no asterisk necessary for this record that's soon to fall.

The NFL's original kickoff line was the 40. It wasn't changed until 1974. From 1974 to 1993, the kickoff line was the 35. And from 1994 until 2010, it was the 30.

That means Cox, who was a straight-on kicker, actually had the yard-line advantage, kicking off from the 40-yard line for his first 11 seasons (1963 to '73) and from the 35-yard line for his final four seasons.

Of course, there also were a lot fewer domes in Cox's day.

THIRD-AND-2

Three observations

• The Vikings, Jets, Jaguars and Buccaneers are the only teams without a win in their division this season.

• The bottom three teams in turnover ratio — Jaguars, Jets and Raiders — are a combined 4-29.

• The top three teams in turnover ratio — Packers, Patriots and Cardinals — are a combined 26-7.

Two predictions

• Unfortunately, pressure on Tom Coughlin to retire will increase when the Giants lose at Jacksonville.

• The Patriots will use their running game more than Tom Brady to beat Green Bay on Sunday at Lambeau Field.

FOCUS ON FIVE STORY LINES

1 Quarterbacks on display: New England at Green Bay

Quarterbacks Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers seem to be can't-miss Hall of Famers, and this is a rare chance to see them go head-to-head on the field. If you're a neutral observer, just appreciate it.

2 Playoff preview? Don't laugh: Arizona at Atlanta

Although the Falcons "lead" the NFC South, they are a team that seems to be on the verge of unraveling. Arizona is close to locking up a playoff spot, and seems to be the real deal.

3 Peyton feeling pressure: Denver at Kansas City

The Chiefs can tie the Broncos for first place in the AFC West with a victory, and should be revved up at home in a nationally televised game. Big chance for KC here.

4 RGIIImania is over: Washington at Indianapolis

The star of Robert Griffin III has fallen, and he's benched as Redskins quarterback in favor of Colt McCoy. The RGIII saga is the biggest on-field soap opera in the league this season.

5 Don't sleep on this one: San Diego at Baltimore

These teams are both 7-4 and are both playoff-caliber squads, and both are still battling hard to stay in playoff contention. Can the Chargers handle the cold of Baltimore?

Mark Craig's NFL picks

The NFL and those who partake in it certainly have a lot to be thankful for this week, next week and any other week in which strangers agree to buy them stadiums for playing football and/or monopolizing soccer markets.

NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell is thankful that Adrian Peterson made his mistake at a time when Rog needed his John Wayne moment to make up for his Jerry Lewis moment with Ray Rice. And we're thankful that we're old enough to remember John Wayne and Jerry Lewis, which means we're not young enough to go through life in the head-down position, looking up from Twitter only long enough to snap 24 selfies per hour.

Here are some other thankful moments for Week 13:

CAR +2½ at MIN

Vikings 27, Panthers 21

The Vikings are thankful for Aaron Rodgers being one year and two more Vikings wins closer to retirement.

WAS +9½ at IND

Colts by 7

Washington is thankful for the Rams not asking for a fourth first-round pick for RG III.

TEN +7 at HOU

Texans by 10

The Titans are thankful that Goodell hasn't ramrodded an 18-game schedule through the players union. Yet.

CLE +3 at BUF

Bills by 6

The LeBrowns are thankful for having as many wins as the LeBrons.

SD +6 at BAL

Ravens by 7

The Ravens are thankful for being 7-3 since the media said Ray Rice was a distraction.

NYG -3 at JAX

Jaguars by 3

Rob Lowe is thankful for a game that will have more Rob Lowe commercials (50ish) than points scored.

OAK +6 ½ at Rams

Rams by 10

The Raiders are thankful for being just awful instead of potentially historically awful.

NO +4 ½ at PIT

Steelers by 7

We're thankful that we've stopped thinking the Saints are a good team that will turn it around.

STL -6 ½ at ATL

Cardinals by 3

The Falcons are thankful that Goodell's playoff expansion wasn't necessary to keep one of the league's worst teams in the postseason hunt on the eve of December.

NE +3 at GB

Patriots by 3

Football fans are thankful for games that actually include two good quarterbacks.

DEN -1 ½ at KC

Chiefs by 7

The Chiefs are thankful for a league that wouldn't be surprised if a team lost to Derek Carr and then beat Peyton Manning.

MIA -7 at NYJ

Dolphins by 10

Rex Ryan is thankful for being within five games of becoming someone else's successful defensive coordinator.

UPSET SPECIAL

CIN -3½ at TB

Buccaneers by 3

The Bucs are thankful that the Tampa 2 defense isn't the Tampa 2-10 defense.

Record

Last week/overall: 9-4/ 98-64-1

vs. spread: 8-5/ 81-82

Vikings picks: 8-3

Upset special picks: 4-8