Michael Rand started RandBall with hopes that he could convince the world to love jumpsuits as much as he does. So far, he's only succeeded in using the word "redacted" a lot. He welcomes suggestions, news tips, links of pure genius, and pictures of pets in Halloween costumes here, though he already knows he will regret that last part.

Follow Randball on Twitter

Tuesday (The grind of a seven-game series) edition: Wha' Happened?

Posted by: Michael Rand under Wild coaching, Wolves news Updated: May 6, 2014 - 10:24 AM

Just how much does it take out of a team to have to play a seven-game playoff series? Numbers guru Nate Silver attempts to answer that question, albeit using the league -- the NBA -- that is of lesser use to a Minnesota sports fan right now. Per Silver's research:

Since the NBA went to a best-of-seven first round in 2003, teams that swept their first-round series won their second-round series 76 percent of the time. Teams that needed five games to beat their first-round opponent won the next series 60 percent of the time. But those teams that needed six games to win the first round won the second round only 34 percent of the time, and those that took the full seven games did just 36 percent of the time.

One may assume these results reflect selection bias: The teams that won their opening series in four or five games were presumably better, on average, than those that took longer to do so. But this is only part of the story. Suppose we look only at teams seeded No. 1 or No. 2 in their conferences. Since 2003, teams from this group that swept the first round won the second round 94 percent of the time. Those that required five games won the second around 77 percent of the time. And those that needed six games or seven games won the second round 62 percent of the time.

It stands to reason that teams that won in just four or five games were on a roll and/or better rested as they headed into those second-round matchups. What is harder to quantify is the emotional wear and tear that comes from a seven-game series.

How does this translate to the NHL? Well, we went back and looked at the previous five years of NHL playoffs, from 2009-13. We didn't just look at the first round, but every round leading up to the finals. Teams that needed seven games to advance were an even 11-11 in their next series -- with a handful of those matchups being a meeting between a pair of teams that had advanced from seven-game marches. Teams that swept a round 4-0 ... well, they were even worse off, going 5-6 in the next round.

Maybe the sample sizes are too small. Or maybe it just doesn't matter as much in hockey. Either way, Wild fans can take heart. At least in terms of history, this series against Chicago is far from over. In 2003, for a final piece of history, the Wild won back-to-back seven-game series. Then it was whitewashed in four games by Anaheim, but for this round anyway the point stands.

ADVERTISEMENT

Cleveland - LP: C. Carrasco 6 FINAL
Detroit - WP: K. Lobstein 8
Chicago Cubs - WP: J. Arrieta 5 FINAL
Cincinnati - LP: A. DeSclafani 2
Washington - LP: G. Gonzalez 2 FINAL
Miami - WP: D. Haren 6
Toronto - LP: M. Buehrle 1 FINAL
Tampa Bay - WP: C. Archer 5
Atlanta - LP: T. Cahill 4 FINAL
Philadelphia - WP: J. Williams 5
Boston - LP: W. Miley 7 FINAL
Baltimore - WP: B. Norris 18
St. Louis - LP: L. Lynn 3 FINAL
Milwaukee - WP: M. Blazek 6
Kansas City - LP: K. Herrera 2 FINAL
Chicago WSox - WP: D. Robertson 3
Kansas City - LP: E. Volquez 3 FINAL
Chicago WSox - WP: J. Danks 5
Texas - WP: N. Feliz 5 FINAL
LA Angels - LP: J. Alvarez 4
Houston - WP: T. Sipp 7 FINAL
Oakland - LP: T. Clippard 6
Los Angeles - LP: S. Baker 1 FINAL
San Diego - WP: B. Morrow 3
Pittsburgh - WP: F. Liriano 8 FINAL
Arizona - LP: J. Hellickson 0
San Francisco 0 Postponed
Colorado 0
Minnesota - WP: C. Fien 4 FINAL
Seattle - LP: T. Olson 2
NY Mets 4 Bottom 5th Inning
NY Yankees 5
Cleveland 101 FINAL
Boston 93
LA Clippers 114 FINAL
San Antonio 105
Toronto 94 FINAL
Washington 125
Houston 28 1st Qtr 1:11
Dallas 23
St. Louis 1 FINAL
Minnesota 4
Montreal 2 FINAL
Ottawa 0
Los Angeles 1 FINAL
Red Bull New York 1
Toronto FC 2 FINAL
Orlando City 0
Portland 0 1st Half 44:55
Seattle 0

ADVERTISEMENT

question of the day

Poll: How will the Wild-Chicago series turn out?

Weekly Question

ADVERTISEMENT

ADVERTISEMENT

ADVERTISEMENT

ADVERTISEMENT

Connect with twitterConnect with facebookConnect with Google+Connect with PinterestConnect with PinterestConnect with RssfeedConnect with email newsletters

ADVERTISEMENT