When I play the Derby, I like to make multiple bets, because the Derby, with its large field, always is a difficult race to handicap. This year it's wide open. Whomever you bet will have excellent value. Your favorite, Dialed In, is 9-2.I break large fields like the one in the Derby into five categories: Pacesetters, Stalkers, Mid Pack, Closers and Deep Closers.
Here are the horses I like for each category, in the order listed above:
SOLDAT has the speed to be front-runner, but he won't. He's coming from post 17, and that's too far out to duel with the others. Very rare to see horse go gate to wire in the Derby, so this is good. Rain -- there is 60 percent chance -- would be a huge plus for Soldat. His best race was in the slop.
MUCHO MACHO MAN should be stalking about three lengths behind the front-runners. He came in third his last race but left his shoe at the gate. Could be tougher if his shoes stay on.
TWICE THE APPEAL and MIDNIGHT INTERLUDE should be in the middle pack. Calvin Borel is on the mount of Twice the Appeal. He has won three of past four Derbys. Midnight Interlude has three bullet drills, the last two at Churchill. Trainer Bob Baffert has a hot barn right now.
DIALED IN will be closing. He has two-time Derby-winning trainer Nick Zito, who knows how to get his horses ready for the big race. Dialed In came five wide to win Florida Derby. This race fits him perfectly if he can avoid traffic jam. Just don't like him as favorite.
NEHRO is your deep closer and should be set up perfect for a hot pace up front. He lost his past two races by a neck, but was closing hard. He's use to having dirt kicked in his face and extra one-eighth of a mile here is what he needs to win. Don't worry about starting from post 19; he's going to sit back anyway.
With all that said, here are my bets:
• $20 Win-Place-Show on No. 19 NEHRO. (If track is sloppy, I'm taking No. 17 SOLDAT). $60.
• Two $2 exactas (17,19 with 3,8,13,15,17,19) and (3,8,13,15,17,19 with 17,19). $20 each.
• Total: $100. Good luck.
