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Quarter of the way through the decade, Minnesota adding jobs faster than projected

  • Blog Post by: Adam Belz
  • November 4, 2013 - 4:55 PM

Just over a quarter of the way through the decade, Minnesota’s economy is creating jobs faster – and in different industries -- than state economists projected in 2010.

For some reason, the ranks of management in Minnesota have swollen in the past three years by 11 percent. That's much faster than projected, with companies and enterprises adding more managers since January 2010 than was predicted for the whole decade.

Food service, hotels, custodial and administrative support have all added jobs four times faster than expected, basically meeting their predicted gains for the decade after only two and a half years.

Not always, but generally, those industries offer lower-paying jobs.

Manufacturing, mining and logging, wholesale and retail trade, professional services and finance and insurance have all added jobs at least twice as fast as projected. Those industries generally provide better-paying jobs.

Overall the state was projected to add 368,000 jobs this decade. So far, Minnesota has added 158,000 positions, about 43 percent progress toward the projection for 2020.

A few industries are growing slower than projected. New jobs in health care are abundant, just as economists predicted. Nearly one in five jobs created in the state between January 2010 and August 2013 was in the health care industry.

But hiring in the health care industry is not keeping pace with projections. Between 2010 and 2020, the state predicted health care would account for 35 percent of all new employment. Almost three years into the decade, and health care has accounted for 18.5 percent of new jobs in the state.

Another sector growing slower than projected has been construction, but only slightly. The only industry to shed jobs between January 2010 and August 2013 was information, which includes newspapers, publishing and broadcasting.

I used two different state data tools (the Employment Outlook and Current Employment Statistics) to create this spreadsheet, in which I sort the industries by comparing actual gains through August with projected gains for the decade. A 25 percent in progress toward the 2020 goal would be right on pace. Most industries are doing better than that, as you can see.

(Data note: I deleted the government categories because it was easier to organize the data that way, which is why if you add up the numbers you won't get a sum that matches the total nonfarm number at bottom. The percentages are still accurate.)

If anyone wants a copy of the spreadsheet to play with or wants to know where to get the data, shoot me an email: adam.belz@startribune.com

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