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TFD: The Brett Favre story and the impact on casino Super Bowl odds

  • Blog Post by: Michael Rand
  • August 6, 2010 - 5:12 PM

Interesting read from the L.A. Times on the fluctuation at sports books based on the whims of Mr. Favre. The head of the MGM/Mirage book, Jay Rood, was a focal point. From the story:

Monday, Rood handicapped Favre's Vikings as 6-1 co-favorites to win the Super Bowl along with the returning AFC champion Indianapolis Colts. But then word spread Tuesday that Favre was texting members of the Vikings that he planned to retire. Rood had work to do. Quick.

He dropped the Vikings from 6-1 to 10-1, without Favre confirming the reports. The Vikings' over/under win total went from 10 to off the board.

"I'm waiting for word from the horse's mouth, and then I'll take a more solid position," Rood said Tuesday. "With Tarvaris Jackson at quarterback all year, [the Vikings are] probably in the 30-1 range. I'll have to be careful with them. Because if Favre says at any point through the season, 'I'll be OK to play,' and returns, and I've got them at 30-1, then I'm in a bad spot."

The Favre reports Tuesday caused Rood to establish a new favorite to win the Super Bowl as the returning NFC East champion Cowboys jumped from 7-1 to 5-1. The Vikings' NFC Central rival Green Bay Packers jumped from 10-1 to 7-1 and the Saints bolted from 15-1 to 10-1.

But then, Favre on Wednesday mumbled above the truck motor that he wasn't retiring, and his agent released a statement saying the quarterback's return will hinge on his ankle and a doctor's future examination. Rood scrambled to post revised odds for these teams: Colts 5-1, Cowboys 6-1, Vikings 7-1, Packers 8-1, Saints 12-1.

Rood says he believes only the Colts' loss of Peyton Manning would alter a team's odds as sharply as the Vikings playing without Favre, although the Saints' loss of Drew Brees or the absence of Philip Rivers in San Diego would compare closely.

If you're a degenerate gambler sporting wager sort of person, you might enjoy reading the full thing. And if those odds ever drop to 30-1, you get in there and get the money.

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