By Mike Kaszuba

Art Rolnick, the former Federal Reserve research director and longtime stadium subsidy critic, still thinks the Minnesota Vikings' push for public money for a new stadium makes little sense.

But he had one prediction Wednesday: "If I had to bet, I'll bet they'll get their money. I hope I'm wrong, but I don't think so." Rolnick now teaches at the University of Minnesota's Humphrey Institute of Public Affairs, and was reacting to the latest Minnesota Poll which showed that three in four respondents thought the Vikings should not get public subsidies for a new stadium. Two-thirds of the respondents, according to the poll, thought the team should just keep playing in the Metrodome, the Vikings' home for nearly three decades. Rolnick, who has often jousted with stadium subsidy supporters, had one other thought: If the team is to be believed when it insists there are no plans to leave Minnesota then its push for a new stadium carries no threat. "If they really mean what they say, then there's absolutely no reason for the public to give them a dime," he said. "You've got to have a credible threat." He also said that the team's insistence that it will not renew its lease to play at the Metrodome beyond the 2011 season is vague. "What does that mean?" he asked. But Rolnick said he did not necessarily think the Vikings were leveling with taxpayers. "I find it very disingenuous," he added. "There has to be an implication [of leaving], or there'd be no reason" to agree to help build a stadium. With all three Minnesota gubernatorial candidates leaving the door open to helping the Vikings get a new stadium, Rolnick said it seemed inevitable that the Vikings will get the public subsidies they want. During the 2011 state legislative session? "Probably," he said.