Minnesota health officials expect a double-whammy of seasonal flu and swine flu to sweep through Minnesota this fall. On Wednesday they gave a preview of their preparations. "We are hoping for the best," Health Commissioner Sanne Magnan said. "We are preparing for the worst."
What's the strategy?
To slow down the outbreak until vaccine arrives. If people adhere to public health guidelines -- such as frequent hand washing and staying home when they get sick-- that will "stave off the big outbreak until after the kids get vaccinated," said Minnesota epidemiologist Dr. Ruth Lynfield. Then immunizations should reduce the overall number of cases, easing the burden on clinics and hospitals.
When will the vaccine arrive?
Most likely in late October or early November, said Kris Ehresmann, director of infectious disease for the Minnesota Department of Health. It will be provided free to health care providers, who will then charge an administration fee to patients and health plans. The swine flu vaccine will require two separate shots, three weeks apart. The seasonal flu will require a third shot, which can be administered any time.
Will there be enough?
There might be a shortage -- officials are at least planning for one. If so, it will be provided first to those most at risk, primarily pregnant women, health care workers, and children.
Will they vaccinate kids at school?
Maybe in some communities, Ehresmann said. But most schools don't have enough staff. School immunization clinics would also require written parental consent, which could be a logistical problem.
How many people will get sick?
"As Yogi Berra said, 'It's hard to make predictions, especially about the future,'" Ehresmann said. The prospect of seasonal flu, which is a different strain, complicates predictions because most people who get flu-like symptoms probably won't know which type of flu they have, officials said.
But Lynfield said that if projections from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) prove true, 30 percent of the population could get swine flu, or 1.54 million people in Minnesota.
How many people could die?
This week the President's Council of Advisers on Science and Technology issued a startling prediction that 30,000 to 90,000 people could die and 1.8 million could be hospitalized before the pandemic is over. CDC officials said later that estimate might be overblown.
In a normal flu season, some 36,000 people die, mostly those with underlying health conditions. In Minnesota, Lynfield said, if a third of the population contracts swine flu, some 3,100 could die as a result.
Could the governor cancel public events, such as Vikings' games?
If things got bad enough, yes. But chances are, they would still be broadcast on TV.