About two-thirds of Minnesota's uninsured population would gain health coverage if Congress passes the health care overhaul pending in the U.S. Senate, according to a national consumer group.

Some 295,000 people in the state would gain coverage by 2019 if the Senate bill passes, Families USA, a Washington-based group, said Wednesday. There were an average of 438,000 uninsured people in Minnesota in 2007 and 2008. However, if the bill does not become law, some 77,000 more people could lose coverage by 2019, the group said.

"The consequences of inaction are very severe for people in Minnesota and across the country," said Ron Pollack, executive director of Families USA. "If the Senate fails to act, Americans will continue to struggle and a growing number of them will face the devastating effects of going without coverage."

Families USA, a nonprofit that has advocated for legislation to expand health insurance coverage, extrapolated from estimates by the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office, which predicts that 31 million people nationally would gain coverage if the Senate bill passes. (There are now about 46 million uninsured people in the United States.)

Families USA researchers married that estimate with U.S. Census numbers for each state.

The Senate proposal would expand coverage in three ways: by expanding Medicaid, by prohibiting insurance companies from denying coverage to people with pre-existing conditions and by creating a health insurance exchange for people to shop for health plans, some using government subsidies.

Details of the bill are in flux as Senate leaders negotiate to round up votes for passage, but the three core ways to expand coverage are considered likely to survive in any bill that passes Congress.

The most controversial elements under debate -- a government-run health insurance option, abortion coverage and a Medicare "buy-in" for people between 55 and 64 -- would not affect coverage numbers much, Pollack said.

A public insurance plan would improve accountability of private health insurance companies and help exert downward pressure on premiums, Pollack said.

Chen May Yee 612-673-7434