Over the past month, the crowded Republican presidential primary field saw its first two casualties: former Texas governor Rick Perry and Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker. These early exits surprised some. Walker was as an early front-runner in the polls owing to his conservative record and ability to win statewide office in a traditionally blue state. Perry was seen as a dark horse with untapped potential.
So who's next? While it's impossible to predict, based on previous research by me and several colleagues, I think Govs. Chris Christie and John Kasich are in danger of dropping out. Here's why.
My colleagues and I studied the 2000 GOP primary, which also featured a large group of candidates. There was no clear front-runner as the campaign began but Gov. George W. Bush quickly became the establishment candidate. Although Sen. John McCain won the New Hampshire primary, Bush won in South Carolina and regained momentum. Other candidates included John Kasich, then a member of the House of Representatives, political commentator Pat Buchanan, former labor secretary Elizabeth Dole, and self-funded businessman Steve Forbes.
We looked at which factors over the course of the campaign helped candidates stay in longer or drop out of the race. We found that early in the campaign, during the "invisible primary," positive news coverage plays an independent role above and beyond fundraising or polling. But after the primaries begin, polling relative to the front-runner becomes more important, and media and money matter less.
Media and money also matter differently depending on the candidate. Money is important to "big shot" candidates - those doing relatively well in the polls - but news coverage is important to "long shots" early in the race. Finally, we also found that candidates running more of a policy- or issue-focused campaign may stay in longer than expected.
Of course, 2016 is not 2000. In particular, the GOP has done far less to coordinate around a candidate this cycle than it did around Bush in 2000. But we can still learn some things from our previous study.
For one, Jeb Bush seems to fit our findings. He is a "big shot" with a lot of money, but not polling exceptionally well or generating a ton of positive media coverage. Bush has enough money to keep his campaign running until later when the importance of media coverage matters less and delegates start to add up.
Similarly, candidates whose campaign is more centered on a particular policy agenda - such as former governor Mike Huckabee, former senator Rick Santorum, and possibly Sen. Rand Paul, too - may prove more likely to stay in the race when other factors suggest they should drop out. They can adopt a survival strategy of specialization and continue to campaign with limited resources.
