December Worms?
What month is it again? To my surprise, I walked out to the mailbox on Monday morning and saw a worm! Not sure that I can say I've ever seen a worm at the end of December. Chalk it up to the first time for everything.
Wettest Christmas Eves Through Christmas Days on Record at MSP
Here are the top 10 wettest Christmas Eves through Christmas Days on record at MSP. Note that in 1982 we had 2.61" of liquid that fell in the metro and the next wettest was in 1893 when 1.35" of liquid fell. The most recent wettest was in 2009 when 1.00" of liquid fell.
Rain & Wintry Precipitation Ends
A long duration storm system will eventually end through midweek as steady rains turn to a light rain/snow mix across parts of the region.
Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis
Temperatures over the next few days will be well above average. We'll see a bit of a cool down into next week with highs hovering around the freezing mark around New Year's Day, which is still above average for this time of the year.
"A Historically Warm and Snowless December in Minnesota"
"December 2023 has been more like November in Minnesota, with bare ground dominating the landscape across the state for much or all of the month, and temperatures remaining mild with a few bouts of very warm weather. Strong El Niño conditions in the Pacific Ocean have kept frigid winter air masses locked up in central and northern Canada, 1,000 to 2,000 miles to our north. Most days have been much warmer than average, and passing cold fronts have struggled to bring in anything other than seasonally-normal air. The lack of snow cover has boosted temperatures further, because bare ground absorbs sunlight and warms the air above it 10-20 times more effectively than fresh snow. Snow cover during winter is a classical climatic "feedback," because snowy ground keeps temperatures lower, making precipitation more likely to fall as snow, which reinforces or deepens the cooling. A lack of snow cover allows temperatures to rise more readily, making rain more likely."
See more from MN State Climatology Office HERE:
"115 Million Americans Expected to Travel over Christmas, New Year's"
Second highest year-end holiday travel forecast since AAA began tracking in 2000. AAA projects 115.2 million travelers will head 50 miles or more from home over the 10-day year-end holiday travel period*. This year's total number of domestic travelers is a 2.2% increase over last year and the second highest year-end travel forecast since 2000, when AAA began tracking holiday travel. 2019 remains the busiest Christmas and New Year's travel period on record with 119 million travelers. "This year-end holiday forecast, with an additional 2.5 million travelers compared to last year, mirrors what AAA Travel has been observing throughout 2023," said Paula Twidale, Senior Vice President of AAA Travel. "More Americans are investing in travel, despite the cost, to make memories with loved ones and experience new places."
Accumulated Winter Season Severity Index (AWSSI)
"Winter seasons have significant societal impacts across all sectors ranging from direct human health and mortality to commerce, transportation, and education. The question "How severe was this winter?" does not have a simple answer. At the very least, the severity of a winter is related to the intensity and persistence of cold weather, the amount of snow, and the amount and persistence of snow on the ground. The Accumulated Winter Season Severity Index (AWSSI) was developed to objectively quantify and describe the relative severity of the winter season."
It's probably no surprise, but most locations around the Midwest and Great Lakes have had a "Mild" winter so far. This by the way doesn't look to be changing anytime soon with milder than average temperatures continuing and very little snow in the forecast. Again, we're still waiting for the other boot to drop, but being in an El Nino setup, a winter like last year is not really in the cards. The Midwest will likely see an overall warmer and less snowy winter.
"Mild" Winter So Far in for the Twin Cities
Here's a look at the Accumulated Winter Season Severity Index (AWSSI) for Minneapolis, MN so far this winter season. With a lack of cold temps and snow, it may be no surprise that we are currently sitting under a "Mild" winter rating so far.
Twin Cities December Summary So Far
Meanwhile, it has been a very warm and snowless December so far in the Twin Cities. Temperatures running +11.3F above average through the first 24 days of the month, we're currently sitting at the warmest start to any December on record. We're also -7.7" below normal snowfall for the month. We still have a little more than 1 week left of the month, but if we fail to see any additional snow this month, this would be the 8th least snowy December on record.
On Track For the 3rd Warmest Year on Record
It certainly has a warm year, but did you realize that MSP is on track for the 3rd warmest on year record? With only 9 days to go, the average temperature is only 0.6F behind the warmest year on record which occurred in 1931.
Seasonal Snowfall So Far
The Twin Cities has only seen 4.5" of snow this season, which is more than -12.0" below normal snowfall, which is the 30th least snowy start to any season on record. With only 6.3" of snow in Duluth, they are nearly 2 feet below normal snowfall and good enough for the 9th least snowy start to any season on record. Marquette, MI is nearly 45" below normal snowfall and currently sitting at the 4th least snowy start to any season on record.
Seasonal Snowfall Departure From Average
Looking around the region, there is no climate site that has a surplus. The biggest deficits are around the Great Lakes, where we typically get lake effect snow, but with a lack of Arctic air, we haven't seen much in the way of heavy snow yet this season.
Twin Cities Average Snowfall
Depending on what 30-year average you look at, December is typically the 1st or 2nd snowiest month out of the year in the Twin Cities. If you look at the last 30 years 1993-2022, December averages 12.7" of snow and is the snowiest month of the year, followed by January with nearly 11" of snow.
Twin Cities Weather Outlook For Wednesday
The weather outlook for the Twin Cities on Wednesday, December 26th will still be pretty damp in the morning with areas of light rain. We'll see temperatures slowly dropping with slightly drier weather.
Meteograms For Minneapolis
Temperatures in the Twin Cities will start in the mid 40s in the morning and will cool down into the mid 30s by the afternoon. Areas of rain in the morning will fade through the morning with drier weather later in the day. Southerly winds will be a bit breezy with gusts up to 20mph.
Weather Outlook For Tuesday
The weather outlook for Tuesday will warm into the 30s and 40s across much of the state, which will still be nearly 10F to 20F above average with areas of light rain and some wintry precipitation across parts of the state.
Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis
The 5 day temperature outlook for Minneapolis will be quite a bit warmer than average over the next several days. Highs will warm into the 30s and 40s through next week
Extended Weather Outlook For Minneapolis
The extended weather outlook for Minneapolis over the next 7 days will warm through the next several days. We'll start to see areas of precipitation end through midweek with quieter weather as we approach next week.
8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook
According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14 day temperature outlook shows warmer than average temperatures continuing across the Western US and along the International border. Meanwhile, cooler temps will develop across the Southeastern US into Early January.
8 to 14 Day Precipitation Outlook
The 8 to 14 Day Precipitation Outlook shows more active weather across the Southern and Southwestern US into early January. Meanwhile, drier weather will continue across the northern tier of the nation, including much of the Midwest.
Rain Finally Tapers Later Today
By Paul Douglas
Sailing on Christmas Day. In Minnesota. Not some apocalyptic sci-fi thriller, but a reality in 2023. Friend Bob Bilger took a small sailboat onto Lake Minnetonka yesterday. "There has never been this much open water around Christmas" he shared. The view from my couch was less dramatic but I couldn't help but notice small weeds growing in our flowerbeds. In late December?
Santa brought much of the state 1-2" of rain. Had the temperature been 15-20F colder we'd be waking up to 1-2 feet of snow, give or take. Too much mild air.
Will it ever snow again, Paul? Yes, but I see nothing but scrawny clippers into early January. Maybe a coating New Year's weekend. Long-range guidance hints at a drier, somewhat milder January, but confidence levels are low.
Yes, we're saving money on our heating bills, fewer fender-benders and fewer ice-related injuries.
This is mostly El Nino - and a warming climate, during the warmest year on record worldwide. Maybe the Ghost of Christmas Future is tapping us on the shoulder?
Extended Forecast
TUESDAY: Rain tapers late. Winds: S 10-15. High 46.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Light rain snow mix. Winds: S 5-10, turning NNW. Low: 30.
WEDNESDAY: Cloudy, few sprinkles, flurries. Winds: NW 8-13. High 38.
THURSDAY: Some sun, still milder than average. Winds: NW 8-13. Wake-up: 28. High 40.
FRIDAY: Sunny and pleasant. Winds: NW 5-10. Wake-up: 26. High 41.
SATURDAY: Clipper sparks coating of snow. Winds: NW 10-20. Wake-up: 29. High 34.
NEW YEAR'S EVE (SUNDAY): Early flakes, then some sun. Winds: NW 10-15. Wake-up: 25. High 33.
NEW YEAR'S DAY (MONDAY): Partly sunny and breezy. Winds: SW 10-20. Wake-up: 23. High: 38.
This Day in Weather History
December 26th
1990: Much of central Minnesota sets record low temperatures near 30 degrees below zero, while others had lows in the teens below zero. Cambridge had the coldest temperature with 31 below. Mora was close behind, with a low of 30 below. Other notably cold lows were at St. Cloud, with 29 below, and Melrose and Menomonie, WI with 27 below.
Average High/Low for Minneapolis
December 26th
Average High: 26F (Record: 52F set in 2011)
Average Low: 12F (Record: -27F set in 1996)
Record Rainfall: 0.60" set in 1880
Record Snowfall: 5.1" set in 1988
Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis
December 26th
Sunrise: 7:49am
Sunset: 4:37pm
Hours of Daylight: ~8 hours & 47 minutes
Daylight GAINED since yesterday: 19 Seconds
Daylight GAINED since Winter Solstice (December 21st): ~ 50 Seconds
Moon Phase for December 26th at Midnight
0.3 Days Until Full "Cold" Moon
"Dec. 26 at 6:33 p.m. CST - The Full Cold Moon; among some tribes, the Full Long Nights Moon. In this month the winter cold fastens its grip, and the nights are at their longest and darkest. Also sometimes called the Moon before Yule (Yule is Christmas, and this time the moon is only just after it; the next full moon that falls on Christmas Day will come in 2034). The term Long Night Moon is a doubly appropriate name because the midwinter night is indeed long and the moon is above the horizon a long time. The midwinter full moon takes a high trajectory across the sky because it is opposite to the low sun."
National High Temps on Tuesday
The weather outlook on Tuesday shows well above average temperatures in the eastern half of the nation with record warmth likely in the Midwest. Areas of rain and thunderstorms will move through the Eastern and Southeastern US.
National Weather Outlook For Tuesday
The National Weather Outlook on Tuesday will be pretty active across the Eastern US with storms possible across the Southern US and locally heavy rain. Areas of wintry precipitation will continue across the Midwest.
National Weather Outlook
The National Weather outlook through Wednesday shows a very active setup in the eastern half of the country with heavier rains along the East Coast and wintry precipitation in the Midwest.
Extended Precipitation Outlook
The extended precipitation outlook shows heavier precipitation across the Eastern Us and the Midwest. There will also be areas of heavier precipitation along the West Coast.
Extended Snowfall Outlook
According to the ECMWF weather model, heavy snows are in the forecast across parts of the Western US through ext week. Some of the heaviest and most widespread could be in the high elevations in Colorado and Wyoming. However, there will be some decent tallies in the Plains. Also note the heavier snow around the Great Lakes, which will be induced by some colder air on the way into next week.
Climate Stories
"2023 is breaking all sorts of climate records"
"This has been quite the year for climate news, with weather disasters, technological breakthroughs, and policy changes making headlines around the world. There's an abundance of bad news, but there are also some glimmers of hope, if you know where to look. It's a lot to make sense of, so for this last newsletter of 2023, let's take a look back at the year, and let's do it in data. A "climate wrapped," if you will. A new record on emissions (again) Technically, we can't draw definitive conclusions about 2023 just yet. But it's pretty evident that we're on track for yet another record year when it comes to greenhouse-gas emissions from fossil fuels. Carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels are expected to hit 36.8 billion metric tons in 2023, according to the Global Carbon Budget report, which was released earlier this month. That's just over 1% higher than last year's levels. Hitting another record high for emissions isn't the best news. Ideally, this line would be going in the other direction, and quickly."
See more from Technology Review HERE
"Snowpack in the West Is Not Looking Good Right Now"
"Last year, as Christmas neared, a series of storms brought the drought-plagued western United States a gift of copious moisture. Parts of the region, in fact, were blanketed in double the normal snowpack. This Christmas season, however, nature has been acting more like Scrooge than Santa Claus. In the image above, the glaring tones of yellow, orange and red speak of a dramatic dearth of snow. Almost the entire region is far behind on moisture, with California's Sierra Nevada range in particularly bad shape. On Dec. 15, 2022, California's Sierra Nevada Range — which runs diagonally across the images in the animation above — was buried under a thick blanket of snow, as were some of the state's coastal ranges, and a large portion of Nevada too. Almost exactly a year later, there's hardly any snow, except in the very highest elevations."
See more from Discover Magazine HERE
"Scientists uncover link between ocean weather and global climate, using mechanical rather than statistical analysis"
"An international team of scientists has found the first direct evidence linking seemingly random weather systems in the ocean with climate on a global scale. Led by Hussein Aluie, an associate professor in the University of Rochester's Department of Mechanical Engineering and staff scientist at the University's Laboratory for Laser Energetics, the team reported their findings in Science Advances. The ocean has weather patterns like what we experience on land, but on different time and length scales, says lead author Benjamin Storer, a research associate in Aluie's Turbulence and Complex Flow Group. A weather pattern on land might last a few days and be about 500 kilometers wide, while oceanic weather patterns such as swirling eddies last three to four weeks but are about one-fifth the size."
Thanks for checking in and don't forget to follow me on Twitter @TNelsonWX
Plenty of rain in sight through next week
