Tompor: Rapid rise in mortgage rates startles homebuyers; blame inflation fears

All the big unknowns surrounding the rapid jump in inflation — including how high consumer prices will go and how quickly the Fed will raise interest rates — have put the mortgage market on high alert in early 2022.

"Rates have gone up rather quickly and there's still a little upward movement going on," said Keith Gumbinger, vice president at the mortgage lending information site HSH.com.

The 30-year fixed mortgage rate has gone up abruptly this year on concerns that the Federal Reserve could end up raising rates up to four times.

The average 30-year rate was 3.08% in mid-November last year but had shot up to 3.55% by last week, based on Freddie Mac data.

The speed is somewhat startling, but so, too, was the uptick in inflation last year.

Gumbinger blames the rapid mortgage rate hikes on the lack of clarity, as well as the lack of experience among today's bond market investors.

"Many investors in today's markets really have not lived through a spate of inflation like this," Gumbinger said.

We're dealing with an economy that's had to evolve after the COVID-19 pandemic disrupted supply chains, manufacturing, travel and entertainment and other activity for nearly two years.

As might be expected, many borrowers are moving to lock in rates now on the expectation that mortgage rates could climb higher, according to Alex Elezaj, chief strategy officer at Pontiac, Mich.-based United Wholesale Mortgage.

"The market is changing very fast," Elezaj said.

As much as people may be shocked by the recent mortgage-rate hikes, rates still aren't anywhere close to historically high levels or even what we've seen just a few years ago.

The average 30-year rate was 4% nearly three years ago in May 2019. But the last time borrowers saw 30-year rates routinely in the 5% range was 2011.

Amazingly, he said, the low point during the pandemic was in January 2021 when the average 30-year rate hit 2.65%.

"The lowest mortgage rates come in the worst economic climates," Gumbinger said.

He said the 30-year rate could peak at around 3.75 or 3.8% this year.

If inflation cools off, mortgage rates could trend somewhat lower, too.