Near Record Highs Expected Sunday

While most state parks and state recreation areas are reporting 25-75% color across the state, both Itasca State Park and La Salle Lake State Recreation Area are reporting 75-100% color. This is according to the latest update from the Minnesota DNR Fall Color Finder. On Saturday, Bear Head Lake State Park (reporting 50-75% color) said that "Most of the green summer aspen foliage have become muted this week, the stage right before the bumblebee and pastel yellow displays. Many of the front runner aspens are sporting their bright yellow coin-like leaves. The maples are PAST PEAK with the majority of their autumn coats covering the forest floor. The palmately lobed leaves which are still hanging on are now embodying their drab color schemes."

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What a way to begin October on Sunday! Mainly sunny skies are expected throughout the day (there might be a roaming storm around in the early morning, but I think the chance is quite low). Morning temperatures start off in the upper 60s, climbing to the mid-80s. The record high for the day is 87F from 1897 - and it could certainly be threatened. Maybe a day to order an iced pumpkin spice drink!

A better chance of storms during the morning hours looks to be across northern Minnesota (mainly up around the Canadian border), with maybe a pop-up afternoon shower or storm in northern Minnesota as well. Otherwise, many areas will see highs that are 10F degrees to 25F degrees above average in the 70s and 80s. Highs in the 60s are expected in parts of the Arrowhead and near the North Shore.

It won't only be the Twin Cities nearing record highs on Sunday. We could see highs near their record in areas like St. Cloud and Park Rapids as well.

Strong southerly wind gusts help to usher in this near-record air into the state on Sunday, with gusts around 25 mph during the afternoon hours and near 30 mph in other parts of the state.

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Highs won't be as close to records in most locations on Monday - though we will have to keep an eye on areas like Park Rapids and Grand Forks.

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A cold front moves in as we head toward the middle of the week, bringing some rain chances with it Tuesday Night into Wednesday for the metro as well as cooler air into at least the first part of the second week of October. We could even see highs not make it out of the 60s for the first weekend of the month! Maybe, just maybe, it'll finally feel like Fall for an extended period of time.

As we look at the rain during the mid-week timeframe, the heaviest at the moment appears to fall in northwestern/north-central Minnesota, where over an inch is possible. Rainfall totals will fade the farther south and west you go, with the current potential of less than a quarter inch in the Twin Cities. We will have to keep an eye on these rain chances for the second Wild Card series game on Wednesday.

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It has been a warm and (thankfully) rainy September here in the Twin Cities. Starting off with that rainfall - 5.57" had fallen through Friday, which would make it the 15th wettest September on record. However, 0.15" additional rainfall fell after the climate reporting period on Saturday morning, which would push us up into 14th place. Yes, most of this rain fell within the last eight days of the month... but we'll take the rain however we can get it at the moment. The average temperature through Friday was 68.8F, which was tied for the warmest September on record. After the Saturday data comes in - which should push that average monthly temperature up a touch - we are likely to have observed the warmest September on record.

Note: Data Shown Above Through Friday.

It's not only the Twin Cities that has observed a very wet September. Duluth through Friday had received over 10" of rainfall, making it the second wettest September and seventh overall wettest month on record. Meanwhile, it was the fourth driest September in Baudette (though records here only go back to 1998).

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More July Than October Into Tuesday
By Paul Douglas

On social media, Dan in Coon Rapids reports nearly 8" of rain in one week! Close to 5" in Minneapolis from another weather-watcher, who added "insane, considering we went a month with no rain at all."

Dusty with a risk of downpours. I doubt the drought is totally over, but a week of monsoon rain has gone a long way toward reducing our rainfall deficit.

One more chance to wiggle into shorts and flip flops? Today's predicted high of 88F should break the old record high of 87F in 1897, with 90s likely over southwestern Minnesota. Wait, is it really October? 80s spill into Tuesday before a midweek cool front ignites a few gusty showers. I see daytime highs in the 50s by late week, with a rerun of sweatshirts. But I'm bullish on a mild autumn this year. Drought-busting rains and a lukewarm October. Leaf-raking or boating? Hmmm.

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Paul's Extended Twin Cities Forecast

MONDAY: Sunny and almost hot. Wake up 67. High 87. Chance of precipitation 0%. Wind S 10-20 mph.

TUESDAY: Sticky sun, nighttime T-storms. Wake up 68. High 83. Chance of precipitation 50%. Wind S 15-30 mph.

WEDNESDAY: Cooler with a few showers. Wake up 63. High 70. Chance of precipitation 70%. Wind W 15-25 mph.

THURSDAY: A few windblown showers. Wake up 57. High 63. Chance of precipitation 50%. Wind W 20-40 mph.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy, feels like fall. Wake up 51. High 57. Chance of precipitation 20%. Wind NW 15-30 mph.

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Minneapolis Weather Almanac And Sun Data
October 1st

*Length Of Day: 11 hours, 42 minutes, and 53 seconds
*Daylight LOST Since Yesterday: 3 minutes and 6 seconds

*When Do We Drop Below 11 Hours Of Sunlight? October 15th (10 hours, 59 minutes, 51 seconds)
*When Are Sunrises At/After 7:30 AM? October 17th (7:31 AM)
*When Are Sunsets At/Before 6:30 PM? October 14th (6:30 PM)
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This Day in Weather History
October 1st

1989: High temperatures across central and southern Minnesota reach the 80's. Later in the day, a cold front would come through and drop the mercury to the 40's.

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Storms will continue to impact portions of Florida as we head into Sunday. We're also watching showers, storms, and even snow for portions of the Rockies westward, with storms in Texas and the Great Lakes. Record highs are possible in the upper Midwest, including for the Twin Cities.

Heavy rain continues to plague Florida, with some areas potentially seeing over 3" of rain through the weekend into early next week. Heavier pockets of rain are also possible in the Upper Midwest and in parts of New Mexico and Texas. Meanwhile, a few inches of snow could accumulate in the western mountain ranges - a sign that the seasons are starting to change.

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More from the New York Times: "A female sea lion, known as Sally, escaped from her enclosure at the Central Park Zoo briefly on Friday, swimming out of the pool where she is kept when the heavy rains lashing New York City flooded the zoo grounds. Workers monitored Sally's movements as she explored the area around the enclosure before rejoining the zoo's other two sea lions in the pool, said Jim Breheny of the Wildlife Conservation Society's Zoos and Aquarium, which oversees four zoos and the city's aquarium. By 3 p.m., the water at the zoo had receded, and all animals were contained in their enclosures, Mr. Breheny said. No staff members were in danger during the storm, and the city's four zoos were closed so that employees could focus on keeping animals safe."

It's Too Easy For Floods to Bring New York to Its Knees

More from Bloomberg: "When we think of the catastrophes produced by climate change, most of us typically think of supercharged hurricanes, massive wildfires and punishing heatwaves. But climate change can turn even a simple rainstorm into a shocking disaster. Much of the New York metropolitan area was treading water on Friday, after hours of torrential rain that capped an already wet week. Roughly half the subway lines in one of the world's busiest metro systems were suspended or delayed. Streets and highways around the city were flooded. The city's airports, key national hubs, faced massive delays. People had to be rescued from flooded basement apartments."

National climate resilience plan unveiled by Biden administration

More from Smart Cities Drive: "The Biden administration released on Thursday a plan to increase climate resilience nationwide. The "National Climate Resilience Framework" identifies the federal government's six overarching climate resilience goals and provides specific actions that could be taken to accomplish them. The plan says it centers locally tailored, community-driven solutions. The framework "will help guide wise investment of federal dollars" and indicates that the government is moving beyond traditional disaster response, said Shana Udvardy, a climate resilience analyst at the Union of Concerned Scientists, in a statement."

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Thanks for checking in and have a great day!

- D.J. Kayser