Multiple factors expected to pump up gas prices this year

MILWAUKEE – A new U.S. president, global politics, a jaw-jabbering oil cartel, the largest initial public offering of stock ever and unanswered questions about U.S. crude oil production in 2017 are all contributing to a combustible forecast for gasoline prices this year.

About the only thing that market watchers seem certain of is that we'll be paying more for gasoline in 2017.

"The list of factors being mixed into the yearly forecast has never been larger," Patrick DeHaan, senior petroleum analyst for fuel monitoring service GasBuddy, said in a statement. "Forecasting fuel prices, especially this year, remains a challenging balance of science and art."

GasBuddy is forecasting the average cost for regular gas will jump to $2.49 per ­gallon this year, up from $2.13 in 2016.

On Wednesday, the national average price for a gallon of regular was $2.35, compared with $2.18 a month ago and $1.99 a year ago, according to auto travel organization AAA.

The price of benchmark West Texas Intermediate crude oil closed at $53.35 per barrel on Wednesday. A year ago it was $36.81.

A wide range of factors are shaping the oil markets.

"They are going to cheat like they always do," said Jim Ritterbusch, president of Ritterbusch & Assoc., an oil ­trading and advisory firm in northern Illinois. "Coming out of the gate this month with production cuts, you'll see fairly strong compliance, maybe 80 percent" of the cartel sticking to the cuts.

"I think by March that tapers down to about 60 percent. That could end up taking about half as much oil off the market as they suggested, assuming Russia cheats as well."

Nearly all of this hinges on the ulterior motives of Saudi Arabia.

"We finally believe the Saudis will cut output for one simple reason: They are planning the IPO of Saudi Aramco in 2018," Ethan Bellamy, managing director and petroleum industry analyst at Milwaukee-based Robert W. Baird & Co., said in an e-mail.

Saudi Aramco is the state-owned oil company in Saudi Arabia.

As oil prices rise, U.S. shale producers will jump back into the market, Bellamy said.

"U.S. production will turn around, but not quickly enough to overcome cuts from OPEC," Bellamy said. "If you buy gasoline, pray that I'm wrong. But in case I am correct, plan on gasoline and diesel prices ­rising this year."