In theory, Keith Ellison is the most vulnerable incumbent to seek reelection from the Minneapolis-dominated Fifth Congressional District in almost 50 years, based on his maiden run in 2006.
Yet with less than 56 percent voter support that year, Ellison nonetheless enters this campaign against untested challengers and with no big mistakes to overcome.
Republicans have endorsed Barb Davis White and Greens have backed Adri Mehra in the Fifth, both first-timers. Neither shows signs of mounting a well-funded campaign that would threaten Ellison.
"I just don't see a credible candidate running against him," said Lisa McDonald, who has run for city office with both DFL and Independence Party backing. "I don't think he has screwed up."
In 2006, Ellison finished with a comfortable margin over Republican and Independence candidates who split most of the remaining vote.
As filings opened this week, the Independence Party so far has been missing in action, even though it rivaled Republicans with more than 21 percent of the vote in 2006. That year's candidate, Tammy Lee, isn't running, and the party has yet to endorse, despite a party official's teaser that a credible candidate would emerge by mid-June.
Ellison was forced to run a defensive campaign in 2006, partly because of his gaffes over unpaid parking tickets and unfiled campaign reports. "I've done my best to keep things cleaned up since then," he said in an interview.
His most controversial first-term remark compared the Bush administration's response to the Sept. 11 attacks to the Nazi consolidation of power after the Reichstag fire.