Can the Vikings replicate Kevin O'Connell's 13-4 first season as head coach? None of the Star Tribune staff writers and columnists who cover the team think so. Here are their predictions for the Vikings' 2023 record, from most optimistic to most pessimistic, ahead of Sunday's season opener against Tampa Bay at U.S. Bank Stadium.
11-6
The Vikings, in theory, should be more diverse on offense in 2023 than they were in 2022. Their defense, even without many proven playmakers, won't be passive after Brian Flores replaced Ed Donatell as defensive coordinator. They won 13 games a year ago with a defense ranked 28th in the NFL; even an average defense would help considerably. A first-place schedule that includes games with all four conference championship game participants won't be easy, and the Vikings likely can't expect to win 11 one-score games every year. But if they're more efficient at running the ball and better at keeping quarterbacks from picking apart the middle of the field, they should compete for another division title in a wide-open NFC North.
11-6
The Vikings could be better on offense, with a full season (presumably) of T.J. Hockenson and the addition of Jordan Addison, and with Kirk Cousins benefitting from consecutive seasons in the same offense with the same coaches. They should be better on defense, because there is nowhere to go but up, and new coordinator Brian Flores should at least occasionally confuse opponents, instead of letting them drive at will like his predecessor. The Vikings should be at least as good on special teams. So why will they take a step back in terms of overall record? Because winning close games, while an important and admirable skill, is not something you can count on two seasons in a row. So call it 11-6 with a team that might be better suited for playoff competition.
10-7
When it comes to the 10 victories one probably needs to win the who-knows-what's-going-to-happen NFC North, I trust Kirk Cousins' ability to find fresh stacks of Benjamins in a contract year more than I trust Justin Fields and his Bears (not yet, but soon), Jordan Love and his Packers (not now, not sure when or if) and Jared Goff and his hyped-up media-darling Lions (gotta see it to believe it).
10-7
This Vikings offense is loaded. The defense can't get much worse than 2022, and it now has a modern NFL mind pulling the strings in Brian Flores. Remember that the Vikings needed to score an average of 29.3 points per game across last year's 11 one-score wins. Now they have tight end T.J. Hockenson for a full season, a road-grading blocker in tight end Josh Oliver, and first-round receiver Jordan Addison. Here's the catch: the Vikings were relatively healthy last year. They were the fifth-healthiest NFL team by adjusted games lost, a Football Outsiders metric that measures injuries to starters and key rotational players. That's the regression baked into my 10-7 prediction, because injuries happen and the Vikings' roster depth is young with a lot to prove.
10-7
The Vikings have ranked 31st, 30th and 27th in yards allowed their past three seasons. They can't get any worse and shouldn't under defensive guru Brian Flores, who favors aggression. That will help a team that pulled off close wins at historic levels last season. Historic means unsustainable. With the combination of an improved defense, playing a tougher schedule and batting less than 1.000 in swing games, the Vikings are looking at a 10-7 record. And if they have adequately replaced Dalvin Tomlinson on the D-line and new edge rusher Marcus Davenport stays healthy, maybe they will win some games by more than one score.
10-7
Common sense says the Vikings cannot duplicate their perfect record in one-score games from last season, but they have enough firepower on offense to be a playoff team again. Kirk Cousins, Justin Jefferson and the rest of their skill players in Year 2 of Kevin O'Connell's system should give the Vikings a top-10 scoring offense. The question again is defense and how much improvement under Brian Flores that unit will make. Flores' creativity in scheme and aggressiveness in play-calling will be welcomed upgrades. But the defense is going be tested in a major way with matchups against a handful of the league's top quarterbacks: Patrick Mahomes, Joe Burrow, Jalen Hurts and Justin Herbert.
9-8
I tried to sound the alarm bells before last season, and it backfired spectacularly with a 7-10 prediction that was already impossible by around the midpoint of a 13-4 season. So let's tone down the gloom and doom just a little this season — but not all the way. There's not a chance in the world that the Vikings duplicate or exceed last year's record, especially the part where they went 11-0 in one-score games. Let's give them a slightly above .500 record in close games, add a little bonus for a better defensive scheme plus another year in Kevin O'Connell's offensive system, and say it all adds up to 9-8 (which quite possibly will be enough for a playoff spot and a repeat NFC North title).
