Questions and predictions for an NFL season unlike any other
Five things to watch for this season
1. Better finish: Brady or Belichick?
The top non-pandemic story in the ultimate team sport this year? Yep, the competition between two individuals whose teams won't even play each other unless they reach Super Bowl LV. Tom Brady vs. Bill Belichick. Together, the quarterback and coach won 249 games and six Super Bowls in 20 years in New England. Who will have the better season without the other? The 43-year-old Brady coaxed 31-year-old buddy Rob Gronkowski out of retirement to join Bruce Arians' Dream Team offense in Tampa Bay. The Buccaneers went 7-9 last year with Jameis Winston throwing 30 interceptions. Meanwhile, the 68-year-old Belichick, who went 5-11 with Drew Bledsoe in 2000, is trying to keep his team's dynasty afloat with a potentially washed-up Cam Newton starting at quarterback, an unproven Jarrett Stidham behind him and a roster weakened by eight players taking the COVID-19 opt-out, including key defensive starters Patrick Chung and Dont'a Hightower.
2. NFC East has three new faces in charge
Changing head coaches at the onset of a pandemic is thought to be a big disadvantage because there was no on-field or in-person work this offseason. If that is indeed true, the Eagles won't mind. They're the only team in the NFC East not to change coaches. Doug Pederson is trying to become the first coach in 16 years to win consecutive NFC East titles. Dallas, which lost eight of its last 13 games last year, dumped Jason Garrett for Mike McCarthy. Washington hired Ron Rivera, who was fired in Carolina. And the Giants' revolving door spit out Pat Shurmur while welcoming Patriots special teams coordinator Joe Judge. The Cowboys did keep Kellen Moore as offensive coordinator and will let him continue calling plays for last year's top-ranked offense. For now, at least. The other new NFL coaches this season: Matt Rhule in Carolina and former Vikings offensive coordinator Kevin Stefanski in Cleveland.
3. Pressure: How will Buffalo handle being the media darling?
Move over, Cleveland. There's a new media darling in the league. And, hopefully, for Buffalo's sake, the 2020 Bills won't end up doing a face plant like the 2019 Browns (6-10). Making the playoffs in two of the past three seasons under Sean McDermott has created optimism. Ditto for the evolution of young quarterback Josh Allen, the beefed-up pass rush for an already-stingy defense and the trade for former Viking Stefon Diggs. And, oh yeah, Brady also left the AFC East, a division he won 17 times. "It's going to be the Bills' time to take over," Bills receiver Isaiah McKenzie told WROC-TV in New York. The Bills have not won a division title or a playoff game since 1995. They're 0-4 in Super Bowls. Other non-Super Bowl winners: Vikings (0-4); Falcons, Panthers and Bengals (0-2); Cardinals, Titans and Chargers (0-1); Jaguars, Lions, Texans and Browns (0-0).
4. MVP: Jackson, Mahomes II or ???
The Chiefs won their first Super Bowl in half a century last season. And yet without some fortunate bounces, they just as easily could have been looking up at Baltimore and Houston as the AFC's third-best team. The Ravens had the league's best record (14-2) and its unanimous MVP pick (Lamar Jackson) but were one-and-done in the playoffs. The Chiefs almost suffered the same fate, trailing Houston 24-0 through 19 minutes at home before 2018 MVP Patrick Mahomes II led them to a 51-31 victory. Mahomes turns 25 on Sept. 17. Jackson won't turn 24 until Jan. 7. Barring injury, the two most electric players in the league will battle again for MVP. The dark-horse candidate is 41-year-old Drew Brees, a sentimental choice to win his first MVP if the Saints take the next step after heartbreaking playoff losses the past three years.
5. Detroit: Hot seat to surprise team?
There can't be a hotter coaching seat than the one Matt Patricia is sitting on in Detroit. He's 9-22-1 in two seasons as Lions coach. He probably got spared from the latest Black Monday firings because he lost his starting quarterback after eight games. With Matthew Stafford, the Lions started out 2-0-1 and were 3-4-1 heading into the second half of the season. Stafford had thrown 19 touchdown passes and just five interceptions and owned a 106.0 passer rating. Without him, the Lions went 0-8. Of course, the defensive-minded Patricia should answer for a unit that fell from 16th to 26th last year in scoring defense. The Lions have not won a playoff game since 1991. 1-9-9-1! "We expect to be a playoff contender … which we've expressed to both [GM] Bob [Quinn] and Matt," owner Martha Firestone Ford told reporters while announcing that she wasn't firing them. Yet.
AFC power rankings
1. Ravens
They have the most talent in the league. Now they just have to play like it in the postseason.
2. Chiefs
Patrick Mahomes, Andy Reid and essentially the same cast of characters who won Super Bowl LIV. Any questions?
3. Bills
An already-sound defense got better, and the offense picked up Stefon Diggs. Can the offseason darlings live up to the hype?
4. Patriots
Not so fast, Buffalo. It might seem like everything is stacked against the post-Tom Brady Patriots. But they still have Bill Belichick.
5. Steelers
Mike Tomlin found a way to go 8-6 last year without Ben Roethlisberger, who is back from an elbow injury.
6. Titans
Anybody else have this nagging feeling that the resurgent Ryan Tannehill is about to turn back into a pumpkin?
7. Texans
Bill O'Brien has been slumping since about the time Houston took that 24-0 lead on the Chiefs in last year's playoffs.
8. Browns
Maybe someday their seasons will live up to their offseasons. Or new coach Kevin Stefanski could keep adding to 12 straight losing seasons?
9. Colts
At age 38, Philip Rivers will be throwing his wounded-duck interceptions for a different sub-. 500 team.
10. Raiders
Derek Carr is tired of being disrespected. Then don't go 39-55 over the course of six seasons.
11. Broncos
Denver is hoping the eighth time switching QBs in the post-Peyton Manning era will be the charm.
12. Chargers
Tyrod Taylor isn't the answer, but Justin Herbert, the sixth overall pick, can't be rushed into starting.
13. Dolphins
If they're smart, they'll continue being careful not to rush rookie quarterback Tua Tagovailoa because this isn't a one- or two-year rebuild.
14. Jets
Is Sam Darnold the guy? The Jets have surrounded their quarterback with more talent in an effort to find out.
15. Jaguars
There aren't a lot of smiles to be found in Jacksonville. Not after a decade of going 51-109.
16. Bengals
Sorry, Joe Burrow. You are good. But your team's roster isn't, and the jury is still out on your coach.
NFC power rankings
1. Saints
No more playoff-ending gut-punches. After back-to-back 13-win seasons, the Saints have added key free agents to a hungry roster.
2. 49ers
Pressure ramps up on Jimmy Garoppolo after the reigning conference champs try to replace key offseason departures.
3. Seahawks
Ten of 11 wins last year were one-score games, but Seattle also came within a yard of taking the NFC West.
4. Buccaneers
Tom Brady, Super Bowl LV Savior? No. Playoff QB? Possibly. Guy who doesn't throw 30 picks, à la Jameis Winston? Definitely.
5. Packers
Lost in the Matt LaFleur-Aaron Rodgers-Jordan Love Triangle: a defense that got rolled for 285 yards rushing in the NFC title game.
6. Cowboys
A star-studded offense finally has quality coaching to take the Cowboys to a level they haven't seen in a looong time.
7. Vikings
Last time the Vikings made the playoffs in consecutive seasons: 2008, 2009. Pressure is on Mike Zimmer and his neophytes at cornerback.
8. Eagles
The defense added key pieces, including corner Darius Slay. The receivers are faster, even with Marquise Goodwin opting out.
9. Rams
Sean McVay made Wade Phillips his fall guy one year after they went to the Super Bowl. Guess whose head would roll next, Sean?
10. Cardinals
They nailed the offseason, starting with fleecing the Houston Texans of DeAndre Hopkins. But they're a year away.
11. Bears
Let's see how Mitch Trubisky plays after fighting off Nick Foles before we bark about a bounce-back year.
12. Falcons
Since its Super Bowl meltdown, Atlanta is 24-24 and coming off back-to-back 7-9 seasons. Tick, tock, Dan Quinn.
13. Lions
Detroit spun its wheels on defense. But Matthew Stafford is healthy.
14. Giants
Joe Judge is 38, has no head coaching experience and was handcuffed by a pandemic.
15. Panthers
Good luck, Matt Rhule and Teddy Bridgewater. You'll need it with the size of this rebuild.
16. Washington
Ron Rivera requires some time to pull the Washington Football Team out of a prolonged rut.
Playoff picks
For the first time since 1990, NFL owners voted to expand the playoff field. After three decades of a 12-team postseason, the NFL will invite the top 14 into the playoffs. Under the new format, seven teams will make the field in each conference. The AFC and NFC wild-card games will feature the No. 2 seeds hosting the 7 seeds, the 3 seeds hosting the 6 seeds and the 4 seeds hosting the 5 seeds. Only the top seed in each conference will receive bye week.
WILD-CARD GAMES
AFC
- No. 7 Patriots over No. 2 Bills
- No. 3 Ravens over No. 6 Steelers
- No. 5 Titans over No. 4 Texans
NFC
- No. 2 Cowboys over No. 7 Vikings
- No. 3 Seahawks over No. 6 Buccaneers
- No. 5 49ers over No. 4 Packers
DIVISIONAL GAMES
AFC
- No. 1 Chiefs over No. 7 Patriots
- No. 3 Ravens over No. 5 Titans
NFC
- No. 1 Saints over No. 5 49ers
- No. 2 Cowboys over No. 3 Seahawks
CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIP GAMES
AFC
- No. 3 Ravens over No. 1 Chiefs
NFC
- No. 1 Saints over No. 2 Cowboys
Super Bowl LV
- Saints over Ravens
CRAIG'S AWARDS PREDICTIONS
MVP Drew Brees, QB, Saints
He'll be 42 when he wins his first NFL MVP award.
Coach of the Year Mike McCarthy, Cowboys
McCarthy will put an end to Dallas' underachieving ways.
Defensive Player of the Year T.J. Watt, LB, Steelers
Pittsburgh returns to the playoffs as the Watt family wins this award for the fourth time, the first by T.J.
Offensive Rookie of the Year CeeDee Lamb, WR, Cowboys
It would be fitting for this award to go to someone from one of the best receiver classes ever.
Defensive Rookie of the Year Chase Young, DE, Wash.
Washington doesn't have a name, but its No. 2 overall draft pick will make one for himself very soon.
Comeback Player of the Year Ben Roethlisberger, QB, Steelers
He and his bum elbow are back and ready to take the Steelers back to the playoffs.
Biggest Surprise
Bill Belichick will make the playoffs and win a game. Tom Brady will reach the playoffs and not win a game.
Biggest disappointment
The Bills will win the AFC East only to get upset in the first round by … New England, of course.
NFL rule changes for 2020
NFL owners approved three rule changes for the 2020 season. They voted to:
- Make permanent the expansion of the automatic replay review system to include scoring plays and turnovers negated by penalty.
- Expand the defenseless player protection to kick and punt returners who have possession of the ball but have not had time to avoid or ward off contact from an opponent.
- Prevent the manipulation of the game clock with multiple dead-ball fouls — otherwise known as the "Bill Belichick Rule." The Patriots coach took advantage of a loophole in the previous rule to run extra time off the clock at the end of games. Titans coach Mike Vrabel, who played for Belichick in New England, later turned the tables on his old boss by exploiting the same loophole against the Patriots. Under the old version of the rule, if the game clock was running with more than five minutes left in the fourth quarter, it would continue to run after a penalty. Belichick, naturally, figured out he could drain the clock by having his team commit multiple dead-ball fouls.