Anyone observing President Donald Trump's handling of the coronavirus pandemic in the U.S. would have good reason to wonder if his administration ever had much of a strategy for handling it. Recently, the press accused one of his medical advisers, Scott Atlas, of promoting a "herd immunity strategy" amounting to letting COVID-19 run rampant. Atlas denies this, but a more important issue is what our strategy is, or should be, and what Joe Biden's strategy would be if he's elected.
As it turns out, neither man has put forward much of a plan.
Joe Biden's promise to "follow the science" does not amount to a strategy. It's just a slogan. A strategy to deal with the pandemic needs to set priorities and incorporate values that science isn't equipped to provide. If Biden and his fans think following the science is the plan, they misunderstand the nature of science and its limitations.
Science can give insights into the nature of the pandemic, but there is no scientific formula pointing to a solution. Any plan of action will force us to balance the need to protect people from the virus with educational, psychological and economic needs, as well as other health needs. The disease is dangerous, and yet there are some things, such as protesting racism or reopening elementary schools, that some people would deem worth the risk. How we weigh those priorities is a matter for public policy.
Climate change poses a similar problem. Science can provide evidence that human activity is changing the composition of the atmosphere, and that added carbon dioxide is leading to global warming. It takes more than just science to set policies restricting carbon emissions. That requires value judgments: Who should sacrifice, and how much?
Consider the protest marches this summer. Many in the public health community have deemed the protests worth the risks; that's a value judgment. At the same time, other outdoor gatherings — like crowded beaches — have generated outrage. That's a value judgment, too.
A real strategy would start by admitting that Americans, for the most part, want safeguards against the disease but don't want to sacrifice everything in life for the sake of public health. Some value the right to protest racial injustice, others the right to keep their jobs or businesses open.
Different countries can "follow the science" to different strategies. New Zealand tried a hard lockdown to drive the incidence to zero, but has been unable to keep the disease out. Iceland kept most businesses and elementary schools open and banked on extensive testing and contact tracing to break chains of transmission. China mixed elements of both, and never completely closed down business in some major cities, such as Shanghai.