Predictions are ostensibly guesses about what is going to happen in the future. But they often tell us more about the past.
Are NBA general managers underrating the Timberwolves?
Only 10% of league GMs surveyed picked the Wolves to finish in the top four in the Western Conference.
October 4, 2022 at 4:28PM
That's a good thing to remember in a lot of scenarios, and it came to mind almost immediately after reading this year's installment of the NBA GM survey. The league's top decisionmakers were granted anonymity to answer 50 questions, and their responses said a lot about how the Timberwolves are currently viewed.
Of particular note:
- Just 10% of GMs picked the Wolves to be a top-four team in the Western Conference. Old standbys like the Clippers (with a healthy Kawhi Leonard), Warriors and Suns dominated the question about Western Conference order of finish, splitting all the first place votes and getting all but a handful of the second-place votes.
That's fair enough, but the Suns seem due for a significant regression while the Clippers should never be trusted. The Wolves have the talent to be a top-four team — more than was represented in a past-leaning vote.
- Wolves wing Anthony Edwards finished tied for second in the question about which player is most likely to have a breakout season and finished third in the question about which player is most athletic.
How close he gets to his ceiling in Year 3 in the league clearly will have a lot to do with how far the Wolves ascend — and the unknown of Edwards' arc plus the adjustment of Karl-Anthony Towns playing with new center Rudy Gobert likely contributed to the Wolves picking up votes in the question of which team's success is the hardest to predict.
- Speaking of Gobert, he dominated the survey. He finished second behind Donovan Mitchell in biggest impact player from an offseason trade, while the Wolves' acquisition of Gobert was deemed the most surprising move of the offseason. Gobert also won in a landslide in the question of best interior defender in the NBA, getting a whopping 83% of the votes.
None of this has an impact on the games themselves, of course. But how a is viewed becomes a part of their story and narrative.
I think the Wolves are better than the rest of the league might be giving them credit for right now.
Then again, that requires thinking more about the future than the past.
When he was hired after the disastrous 2016 season to reshape the Twins, Derek Falvey brought a reputation for identifying and developing pitching talent. It took a while, but the pipeline we were promised is now materializing.
