The results of Israel's elections this week are troubling both for friends of Israel and for peace in the region. After years of unsuccessful peace negotiations with the Palestinians and two recent wars with Hezbullah and Hamas, Israeli public opinion has turned rightward. Former Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu's rightist Likud Party finished just behind Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni's more moderate Kadima Party. But Netanyahu may be in a stronger position to form a government. Even more distressing is that the ultra-nationalist Yisrael Beitenu Party, headed by Avigdor Lieberman, was third in the voting and may hold the key to negotiations over a new government. His insistence that Arab citizens sign a loyalty oath is considered racist by Palestinians and many on the Israeli left.
The Israeli political system is complex and it's difficult to tell now what government may emerge from the voting. I asked my friend Andy Overman, a classics professor at Macalester College who runs an archeological dig in northern Israel, to put the situation in perspective. Overman has both Israeli and Palestinian friends and is an astute observer of the region. Here's what he told me:
"Israel's historic Labor Party and far left Meretz Party, often associated with the mythic pioneers of the Kibbutz movement, are now part of Israel political past. The left in Israel has gradually disappeared. This is largely a result of 20 years of conflict and ultimately failed peace processes. Israel's left lost credibility even with the very families that founded these political movements. The youth vote, the growing religious vote, immigrant populations and the old traditional left all lost confidence in the mainline, centrist political players in Israel. The new Israeli political scene, decades in the making, emerged with force this week…This week's election has captured in a single vote a complexity that has been growing and increasing for years.
"The best possible scenario for the Obama administration and its stated goal of bringing peace to Israel and Palestine, which President Obama reinforced by appointing the very senior negotiator former Senator George Mitchell, is this:
"The Israeli electorate is deeply divided. The prospect of (Liberman's) "Israel is Our Home" Party with its overtly racist platform playing any major role in the new government will backfire in Europe and especially in America where race is perhaps the major issue and crucible of our history. Americans will not support such a new configuration.
"Therefore, Netanyahu's Likud Party and Livni's Kadima Party must form a national unity government with Labor playing a minor role. This will result in a government with the requisite 61 plus seats in the Knesset. Israeli leaders must beat back the rise of reactionary parties and fear and hate that 20 years of conflict have understandably wrought. The national unity government, though admittedly odd bedfellows, will take Israel through these transitional years. And this government will be one the Obama administration could possibly work with to achieve its goal of peace between Israel and Palestine, and the formation of a Palestinian state.
"Failure to do this will further decrease Israel's stature in the region and around the world."
Let's hope that reasonable people prevail and that Professor Overman's prescription for a broad coalition government works.