An outing to the zoo may not be an option this summer.

Construction on Cedar Avenue, the Hastings bridge and the Hwy. 169 interchange at Interstate 494 may cease.

Millions of dollars that pay for myriad services, from driver's licenses and domestic violence shelters to probation officers and public health programs, may not come to the south metro if the state government shuts down on July 1.

But much of a shutdown's impact is still a "maybe." As local officials cobble together contingency plans, nobody knows exactly what happens if the state budget stalemate isn't resolved in time to avoid a shutdown.

"It's like trying to discern the tea leaves," said Dakota County Administrator Brandt Richardson. "It creates so much uncertainty."

The stakes are high: Dakota County's budget includes $71 million that either comes from the state or flows through the state on its way down from the federal government.

That money supports 289 county employees in many departments, through state reimbursement programs or grants. For example, 22 probation officers' positions are paid for through a state grant program.

"We've been doing a lot of slicing and dicing our budget," said Matt Smith, county finance director.

The county board will weigh different shutdown scenarios at a meeting on Tuesday.

In neighboring Scott County, commissioners have been briefed on the potential impact, with senior managers stressing that much will depend on how liberally the courts interpret the idea of "essential services."

A judge will hear requests from Gov. Mark Dayton and the attorney general later this week. If a budget deal isn't reached by the end of the month, only critical services would continue July 1.

Most routine county services should go on unabated, Scott County Administrator Gary Shelton said, but social services clients could be affected.

Widespread impact

So, what services are likely to continue, and which might stop?

Road work: Much road work on state highways would probably cease. If the judge accepts the governor's proposal, only emergency highway repair would continue during a shutdown. That could mean projects aren't done on time.

Local governments: In cities that rely heavily on local government aid -- mostly inner-ring suburbs and small towns -- officials worry that they won't receive state payments. City officials in South St. Paul, for instance, might have to dip into reserves if a $1.25 million state aid payment, already allocated, isn't delivered in July as scheduled.

"The problem is: Are there going to be any workers ... to distribute the aid?" asked Finance Director Josh Feldman.

Schools: Education would probably weather the storm. South metro school districts, like others around the state, have said they would use reserve funds or eventually borrow money to keep summer programs running. Inver Hills Community College and Dakota County Technical College are both likely to stay open, according to the Minnesota State Colleges and University system.

Domestic violence shelters: At 360 Communities, a Burnsville-based nonprofit, employees are wondering about the fate of their two safe houses for women and children who have been abused. The state money to pay for those two facilities was not among the critical services recommended by the governor, said Greg Konat, the agency's executive vice president.

"We're prepared to rely on our reserves and think we can do that for 30 days. Then we'll have to close the doors," he said. "That's got really serious ramifications. We have 20 to 30 families at one time living in our two homes."

Transit: The Minnesota Valley Transit Authority, which operates many south-metro bus lines, plans to keep buses rolling with reserve funds for up to 60 days.

"We've definitely been getting questions about this," said Robin Selvig, MVTA's customer service manager. "Those of us at this level are truly, truly, truly hoping that some miracle can occur and the two sides can reach some agreement."

Running out of time

But just in case, local agencies that work with the state are pushing to get things done before the month ends.

The Dakota County Community Development Agency is working with its contractors to get an elevator installed in a senior housing building under construction in South St. Paul. If they wait until July, there may not be any state elevator inspectors available to sign off on the new lift.

"We hate to speculate, but at the same time, we have to be mindful that we could see disruptions," said Mark Ulfers, executive director of the CDA.

A lack of inspectors could also delay the Cedar Avenue rapid busway construction project, even though much of that project is paid for with local and federal funds.

The availability of driver's licenses, vehicle tabs and other records is also unknown.

"I worry about the unintended consequences," said Richardson, the Dakota County administrator. "You just know there will be things that nobody thinks of."

Katie Humphrey • 952-882-9056 Staff writers David Peterson, Nicole Norfleet, Jim Adams and Sarah Lemagie contributed to this report.