ANNETTE BENING, "The Kids Are All Right"
In her favor: As half of a gay couple, she avoids the pitfalls of pleading, emotionalism and stereotyping. Her controlling and brittle yet funny lesbian-husband persona is utterly credible.
Then again: There's an air of straight-A-student calculation and discipline to her performance. Not magic.
NICOLE KIDMAN, "Rabbit Hole"
In her favor: Botox renounced, forehead mobility restored, Kidman delivers on all cylinders as a bereaved but lionhearted mother.
Then again: Although she works constantly, she hasn't made a worthwhile film in the past six years. There's an aura of "meh" around her career.
JENNIFER LAWRENCE, "Winter's Bone"
In her favor: She's fresh and obscenely talented and fearlessly committed to her role as a tough, poor, smart, brave teenager tracking her criminal father.
Then again: Well, she's sort of too pretty for the part. There, that's the worst thing you can say. Too dang pretty.
NATALIE PORTMAN, "Black Swan"
In her favor: There's nothing like playing a crazy person to generate Oscar magnetism. Plus, she got super-skinny and dances like a thing possessed: Trifecta.
Then again: Oscar couturiers who don't want to design her maternity tent may have started a whispering campaign against her.
MICHELLE WILLIAMS, "Blue Valentine"
In her favor: If her performance as a disappointed young wife slipping out of love doesn't break your heart, congratulations, you are a zombie.
Then again: Itsy-bitsy indie movies such as this rarely prevail in competition.
Who got snubbed:
JULIANNE MOORE, "The Kids Are All Right"
Why she deserved it: As a lesbian housewife who has a midlife hetero fling, Moore combines daffy "Annie Hall" sex appeal with impeccable comic timing.
Then again: She lost to co-star Bening at the Golden Globes, so ouch.