The latest report about worldwide energy projections from the U.S. Energy Information Administration has discomforting news for environmentalists, scientists worried about climate change, and consumers fed up with high fuel prices.
The agency's International Energy Outlook, released Wednesday, projects a 50 percent increase in energy consumption from 2005 to 2030, led by rapid growth in developing countries such as China and India, and relying heavily on fossil fuels such as oil and coal.
The report says that energy demand will increase 85 percent in nations that don't belong to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), which are generally less developed than the 30 OECD member nations. By contrast, energy demand is expected to increase 19 percent in the OECD nations.
Assuming that current laws and policies remain unchanged, world oil markets are expected to remain relatively tight, the report said. The current spike in prices should settle down to about $70 a barrel (in inflation-adjusted dollars) by 2015, then gradually rise to $113 a barrel in 2030.
But the agency also considered a "high-price" scenario that projects oil to increase to $186 a barrel by 2030. "Given current market conditions, it appears that world oil prices are on a path that more closely resembles the high-price case," the report said.
Electricity generation should nearly double by 2030. Most of that power will be generated by coal and natural gas, though international agreements to cut greenhouse gas emissions could substantially alter that scenario.
Barring that, the use of coal is projected to increase about 2 percent a year. China accounts for about 71 percent of that increase.
DAN BROWNING
