When it comes to attempted reclamation projects, the Twins have a long history.
Twins' Chris Archer: The next Carl Pavano ... or the next Mike Pelfrey?
The Twins have a long history of reclamation projects. Their 2022 hopes might hinge on whether the latest with Chris Archer is successful.
March 29, 2022 at 3:05PM
That doesn't make them unique, but mid-market teams with payroll constraints are bound to have more than their large-market, free-spending peers.
These players are often pitchers and tend to fit a general description: They had a lot of potential and a decent amount of success at one point in their career before injuries derailed their paths. Then a team like the Twins scoops them up on relatively low-cost contracts in hopes of getting a bargain.
The latest example: Chris Archer, a veteran pitcher signed on Monday to a reported one-year, $3.5 million deal that can balloon to as much as $9.5 million if he hits certain incentives.
I talked about the risk-reward of this type of move on Tuesday's Daily Delivery podcast.
Archer has a more impressive track record than other reclamation projects of recent Twins vintage like Matt Shoemaker (a flop last season) and even Dylan Bundy (signed just before the lockout and a candidate for this year's rotation).
For comparable pitchers, I had to go back a little further to find a relative ceiling and relative floor for this kind of Twins move.
The ceiling: Archer performs like Carl Pavano. You'll recall that Pavano was a successful pitcher for the Marlins before a disastrous, injury-filled four years with the Yankees from 2005-08 in which he made just 26 combined starts.
Pavano landed in Cleveland in 2009, the Twins traded for him later that year, and he turned in a credible end to that year, a stellar 2010 season (17 wins, 3.75 ERA in 221 innings) and a workhorse effort in 2011 even as everything else was falling apart.
If Archer comes close to what Pavano did for the Twins, they have a chance in 2022.
The floor: Archer performs like Mike Pelfrey. You'll recall that Pelfrey had a credible four-year run with the Mets from 2008-11, averaging almost 200 innings a season with an ERA just over four. Then Pelfrey — like Archer — had Tommy John surgery in 2012. In three seasons with the Twins, Pelfrey went 11-27 with a 4.94 ERA.
If Archer comes close to what Pelfrey did — and nobody else steps up — the Twins are probably in trouble in 2022.
That's the risk-reward. Archer has upside as a two-time All-Star and strikeout pitcher, but as with all reclamation projects there are no guarantees.
When he was hired after the disastrous 2016 season to reshape the Twins, Derek Falvey brought a reputation for identifying and developing pitching talent. It took a while, but the pipeline we were promised is now materializing.
