Scott Baker is a nice pitcher. Since the start of June, he has generally been on a nice roll. By default, he is the "ace" of the Twins' staff this season. But there is something wrong with this picture: the Twins had all the momentum in the world going into Sunday's game against the Tigers, who were throwing a questionable Nate Robertson out there in place of a struggling and injured Jarrod Washburn. And even when the Twins grabbed leads of 1-0 and 2-1, we had far less than lock-down confidence that this was their game for the taking. Because as good as Baker has been, he's just not that kind of pitcher. He's a nice middle of the rotation guy, which the Twins' staff is full of. He is highly susceptible to innings just like Sunday's three-run fifth (we haven't looked it up, but we imagine he has given up at least three runs in the fifth or sixth inning of games roughly 47 times this season).

Giving up the runs is, yes, Baker's fault. But expecting him to be more than he is? Well, that would be the burden of an unfair expectation.

Having a pitching staff full of No. 3s and No. 4s is the main reason (outside of a matchup with the Yankees) many fans feel like a sneaky trip to the postseason, should it happen in spite of Sunday's loss, will be no great feat because the Twins will simply be swept away. Perhaps. But we dug into the math a little and found some interesting numbers. If the Twins get in, they will almost certainly have the worst record of the eight playoff teams. The Yankees almost certainly will have the best record of the playoff teams. What does that get you in the Wild Card era? Well, let's take a look at World Series winners from 1995 on and their records relative to the rest of the playoff teams that year:

2008: Phillies, fifth-best

2007: Red Sox, tied-best

2006: Cardinals, worst

2005: White Sox, second-best

2004: Red Sox, third-best

2003: Florida, sixth-best

2002: Anaheim, fourth-best

2001: Arizona, sixth-best

2000: Yankees, worst

1999: Yankees, third-best

1998: Yankees, best

1997: Florida, fourth-best

1996: Yankees, third-best

1995: Atlanta, second-best

You'll note the team with the best regular-season record of the playoff teams has won the WS twice -- just as many times as the team with the worst record of the playoff teams. If you get in, even with a substandard record and question marks, you have a chance. Bottom line.