Randy Johnson's Gophers-Illinois prediction: Who wins and why?

Gophers at No. 24 Illinois, 11 a.m. Saturday, Memorial Stadium, BTN, 100.3-FM

After last week's bye, the Gophers hit the road to face red-hot Illinois, which has won four in a row, and entered the AP Top 25 this week. This game matches contenders in the Big Ten West, and Minnesota (4-1, 1-1) needs a win to avoid falling further behind Purdue and the Fighting Illini (5-1, 2-1).

Three big story lines

1. How will the Gophers rebound?

In their mistake-filled loss to Purdue, the Gophers mustered only 10 points and uncharacteristically gave up big plays on defense. The loss was costly, but it also showed the areas in which they need to improve. Coach P.J. Fleck saw a renewed focus during the bye week. That needs to translate to game day.

2. Can Minnesota finally beat Bret Bielema?

It doesn't matter if the opposing coach was Glen Mason, Tim Brewster, Jerry Kill or Fleck, Bret Bielema has owned the Gophers, going 8-0 and winning four times by two touchdowns or more. Seven wins came with Wisconsin, and last year his Illinois squad beat Minnesota 14-6 in Minneapolis.

3. Which QB will play for Illinois?

Syracuse transfer Tommy DeVito has been efficient for the Illini, completing 68.9% of his passes for 193.8 yards per game and nine TDs. But he suffered an ankle injury last week and will be a game-time decision to play. If he can't go, Rutgers transfer Artur Sitkowski would get the nod.

Two key matchups

Mohamed Ibrahim vs. Illinois run defense

The expected return of Mohamed Ibrahim from an ankle injury should give the Gophers run game a needed boost after it produced only 47 yards against Purdue with the sixth-year senior sidelined. His task won't be easy against an Illinois defense that's allowed only 86 rushing yards total in three Big Ten games.

Gophers wideouts vs. Illinois secondary

With Illinois strong against the run, the Gophers will need wide receivers Daniel Jackson, Mike Brown-Stephens and Dylan Wright to be difference-makers. They'll face a stiff challenge from an Illini secondary led by cornerback Devon Witherspoon (1.8 passes defensed per game) and safeties Kendall Smith (three interceptions) and Sydney Brown (23 tackles).

One stat that matters

3 Touchdowns allowed by the Illini defense this season, the fewest in the nation. Two came against Indiana, one against Wisconsin.

The Gophers will win if … they establish the run game, which opens up the passing attack; they grab an early lead to make Illinois play from behind; they keep Illinois RB Chase Brown, the nation's second-leading rusher, in check; and avoid turnovers, whether from offense, special teams or coaching decisions.

The Illini will win if … they follow Purdue's blueprint in beating the Gophers: get an early lead and keep it, at least limit Minnesota's running game if they can't shut it down, force QB Tanner Morgan into undesirable passing situations, and feast on any mistakes by the Gophers.

Prediction

The Gophers and Illini are two evenly matched teams who want to impose their ball-control, grind-it-out offense on the opponent, and whichever does it better likely will win. A key for the game will be how each team handles third-down situations. Both defenses have been outstanding on third downs, with the Gophers leading the nation by allowing opponents to convert only 10 of 56 (17.86%) third-down situations, while Illinois ranks sixth at 26.37% (24-for-91). Where the Gophers have the edge is on offense. They lead the nation in third-down conversions by a large margin at 70.31% (45-for-64), while Illinois ranks 78^th at 38.46% (35-for-91). Ibrahim's ability to gain yards after contact will be key for Minnesota in creating third-and-manageable situations.

My expectation: This should be a tight game, and Ibrahim's expected return and DeVito's absence or limited effectiveness could swing it. Gophers 20, Illinois 13.